August-Sept. 2008

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September 29 - Sarah Palin - Clueless or Credible?

One phenomenon of this election is the impact of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin on the campaign.   Thursday night’s debate should make it a bit more clear, as we finally get to see and hear the candidate unscripted.  At first, it appeared Palin was a brilliant choice, igniting the base and providing an attractive, young, fresh face to the GOP ticket.  Now some wonder if McCain didn’t commit a horrible blunder, chosing someone not up to the kind of challenges facing a national campaign.  My own thinking on this has changed within a week or so, from it being a smart pick, to a dumb pick, to a kind of GOP anti-Obama.  Perhaps by the weekend we’ll know.

Within the GOP, rumors persist that Palin is “clueless,” has bombed debate trials, and some hope they can postpone the debate or maybe cancel it.  In fact, McCain’s bungled attempt to suspend his campaign might have been an effort to find a way to scrub the VP debate, since he suggested that be the venue for the first Presidential campaign.   Palin’s favorability ratings have plummetted.  After all, if she is such a game changer, such a superstar, why is she kept hidden from the press, unavailable to the public, and treated as if she was a fragile flower rather than a pit bull with lipstick?  If she does a quality job in Thursday night’s debate, she could put a lot of the worst fears behind her, but right now, the pick is looking more and more dubious.

The New York Times, hardly John McCain’s favorite paper, has reported about his ties to the gambling industry, as well as his own history of gambling.  Given that the Palin pick was done on a gut instinct out of a need to do something big, it could well be one of those high stakes rolls of the dice.   Apparently he had talked to her only once, and there are still questions about how well she was vetted.   There is no evidence that they had in depth policy discussions, or really investigated her capacity to handle media on the national stage.  Clearly, she brought early political benefits.  She electrified the GOP convention in St. Paul, and helped the McCain campaign turn around major gains Obama received from the Democratic convention in Denver.

But if she’s such a weapon, why have more people seen Tina Fey as Sarah Palin than Sarah Palin herself?  Why isn’t she out doing what Joe Biden is doing, chatting with the press, talking to CNN after the debate?  Instead, she was the brunt of a joke.  After Biden talked one CNN analyst said, “we’d like to have the Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin on too.”  Another, laughing, “well, I don’t think that’s going to happen.”  The others chuckled.  It’s well known that she is being kept away from the press on a very tight leash.

When she does talk, she makes gaffes.  Now, given all the gaffes Joe Biden has made, famously saying that Roosevelt came on TV after the stock market crash (Hoover was President and there was no TV), why do hers matter more?   The answer is obvious.   Nobody doubts Biden’s expertise, and every top Republican has expressed respect for Biden, and note that he is well versed in foreign affairs and qualified for the job.  He doesn’t have to prove himself to the public, he is known to be competent.  His gaffes are thus attributed to his locquaciousness, his tendency to speak before thinking.

Palin, on the other hand, is an untested quantity.   After she was chosen, Alaskan newspapers questioned if she was even competent to run Alaska, let alone the US.  She has to prove herself to the American public, and so far she’s not even tried to do that.   She made a great speech in St. Paul using the teleprompter, but anyone can do that.

To be sure, people vote for the top of the ticket, and Dan Quayle, similarly criticized (though not hidden and shielded the way Palin has been) did not pull Bush the elder away from an easy victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988.  But while Bush was seen as clearly more qualified and better than Dukakis by most voters, McCain is playing catch up with Obama.  If he is to win enough of the undecideds, or turn around the decideds, he has run a campaign that is extremely effective through November.  If Palin’s qualifications become an issue, that will hold him back and stymie any momentum he might gain.

On the other hand, dumping Palin, as conservative columnist Kathleen Parker suggested, would be poison to the McCain campaign.   Choosing a running mate is the “first Presidential decision,” and admitting he flubbed it would be a bitter pill to swallow.  To be sure, they could manufacture an excuse for a change in running mates, but if that comes on the heels of a bad debate performance, it would be transparent.  It would be a strong argument that McCain is erratic as the Obama camp contends: gambles on a VP choice, suspends his campaign but does nothing in bailout talks, and then debates anyway after vowing not to debate if no deal had been made.   That completely undercuts McCains claims at experience, and in a year where change is desired, experience is a loser.

Of course, Sarah Palin could pull off a brilliant performance on Thursday, and Biden could muff some questions, making all this moot.   Reports of Palin’s incompetence are based on rumor and snap judgments about a few interviews and speeches.  She can still bounce back.

With the US economy in crisis and the public in the mood for change, it’s ultimately still up to Obama to prove he is up to the job, that people can take a chance on this young, black man with a funny name.  So far, he seems to be making progress to close the deal, and if you believe the Obama camp’s claims about their organization and “ground game” in swing states, this could be a landslide.

So right now it’s crunch time.   The ball is on the 15 and it’s fourth and goal.  There is still time after this drive, but if they give up the ball here, it’ll be difficult to come back.  The coach sends in the play.  The untested rookie running back is called on to try to make the score.   The players are shocked, surely they should pass, or try a more conventional play on 4th and 15!  But the play has been called, and on Thursday we’ll see if she scores.

September 28 - Bailout Blues

I’ve written extensively about the economic crisis we’re facing in blogs for a long time.  Since I started this blog, in May, I’ve written about (in chronological order): Oil Denial, America in Decline, America and the Troglodytes, Future Uncertain, Decade of IllusionsThe Economic Storm, What Me Worry?, China’s Century, Economic Collapse, Financial Crisis Worse Than Terrorism, Ideology and Economics, and Schadenfreude in Europe. To me, the most pressing and important issue of the day is not Iraq, Iran, health care, or any of the things politicians talk about the most.  I’m worried that our economy may be in for a severe and deep crisis, one that will affect all of us, perhaps profoundly.

The current plan to bail out mortgage backers is creating a lot of controversy.  On the one hand, it’s probably true that if the bailout plan fails stocks could plummet below 8000.  That would decimate retirement accounts, personal investments, educational investments, and tighten credit to the point that it could unleash another Great Depression.   Given how weak our economy is in terms of our current accounts deficit, this could also see a decline in value of the dollar, causing the crisis to spiral in on itself.  The result is frightening, and explains why so many politicians are in a tizzy over this, and why intense popular opposition to the bailout plan isn’t pushing the politicians to line up strongly against it.  Perhaps those in really unsafe districts will vote against it, but otherwise, it’s almost certain to pass in some form.

Looked at that way, the bailout is a no-brainer to the extent that it is better than doing nothing.   However, not only are there other possible paths to take, but there are other perspectives on this.  I’ll leave the exploration of alternative paths to other pundits or bloggers — and there is a lot being written out there, especially in economics blogs.   What interests me is the other perspective, that this is less a practical economic issue, but an ethical one.

This view has proponents on both the left and the right.  On the left it’s noted that common folk and mortgage holders themselves aren’t getting bailed out — people are losing health care, homes, and the capacity to pay for their childrens’ education because of the crisis.   The people who will benefit from this massive socialization of a huge sector of the economy are the cream of the capitalist crop.  They are big Wall Street investors, those who run the financial engine of the country.   So while the Democrats try some things to benefit community action groups or others besides the wheelers and dealers, much of the country takes a cynical eye to a government that takes care of the elite, while ignoring the middle class.

On the right there is a more basic ethical argument: people should pay for the consequences of the decisions they made.  This is true for individual home buyers who should have realized that a massive continuous boom in housing values could not last, and for big banks who should have understood the immense risk they were undertaking.  Indeed, since 2003 a drumbeat of warnings have been made about the economy and the housing boom.  They were brushed aside as “so much doom and gloom,” the kind of prophecies made often in the past, but which never actually came true.

The pro-bailout group responds with a utilitarian ethical argument: just measure the societal harm done by letting the economy collapse with the cost of a bailout which ultimately, as Senator Obama noted in the debate Friday, could earn the government a profit.  This is not just a handout but actual government taking over huge chunks of the financial sector, meaning that if things bounce back, it might not be costly.  Calculate the probable utility and compare the likelihood of different scenarios, and you get a pretty strong utilitarian argument for swift governmental action.

Of course, both the left and right argue that this is a limited calculation.  First, it’s based on assumptions about the future by the same government bureaucrats and legislators whose miscalculations allowed this crisis to happen.  Second, what about the signal this sends — government will step in if need be, so why not do the same thing again if there are short term profits?   This isn’t as strong an argument as it sounds, since despite the bailout most of the ‘winners’ of the last decade’s financial boom will still be hurt tremendously by all this, but it’s worth considering.  Finally, shouldn’t the wishes of the American people be taken into account, and a broader based response that isn’t focused on Wall Street be considered?  The Federal Government says we don’t have time for that, we need direct action.  But no one knows for sure what will happen.

For me there is a deeper concern.  This crisis was caused by our materialist excess and our consumerism (oh, and I’ve been posting on that too: Consumerism and Fascism, Carnival Consumerism, Consumer Cathedral, The Core/Void, and The Selling of the President).  We are addicted to stuff, and we are addicted to debt.  Our material wants have overcome everything, we have morphed into an excessive consumer society where values and social concerns are second to individual interest and a desire for more.  To the extent that a bailout addresses the symptoms of this problem, but not the underlying cause, the problem is likely to continue.  Addressing the cause and changing the culture might be better served by allowing the markets to run their course — but that could also set up authoritarian and Bonapartist reactions, as Americans could be shocked and angered by the sudden and deep collapse — just a couple years ago we considered ourselves top of the heap, the “winner” of the Cold War, the invincible and necessary power.  The fall would be so hard and so fast that people might react with anger and irrationality.

Luckily, I’m in no position to impact whether or not the bailout is chosen, so I’ll not get upset either way.  These decisions are being made by others based on their experience and beliefs.  All I can do is observe and comment.  But unless we as a society figure out a way to address our excessive consumerism/materialism, our dependence on oil, and rethink what our society is all about, this problem will linger, regardless of the decisions made on the bailout.

September 27 - Obama Wins Debate I

Last night’s debate between Barack Obama and John McCain has convinced me that this is likely to be a lopsided victory for the Democrat.  Political science theories would all look at conditions and conclude that this is clearly going to be a Democratic victory.  The fact Obama is black, and McCain is running as a maverick might muddy the waters.  But Obama’s debate victory (at least according to early post-debate polling) against John McCain suggests that as long as Obama doesn’t take a major stumble, he will be inaugurated President in January 2009.

First, while on the ‘expectations game’ Obama was expected to do better, the real issue is whether Obama has the stature to be President.  Last night, McCain tried all he could to minimize Obama.  He repeated the mantra “Senator Obama does not understand…” so many times that it became comical.  It was clear he was instructed to say that as often as he could to try to create the impression Obama wasn’t ready.  Yet Obama was clearly in command of his facts and confident; it ended up sounding more condescending than real.

To be sure, there was no knock out punch.  But while McCain sounded themes which will no doubt sound good to partisan Republicans, Obama’s task was not to defeat McCain but to show the country he’s ready to lead.   He had to avoid looking unsteady or unsure.   There are two more debates, but Obama showed tonight — when the topic was foreign policy, supposedly McCain’s strength — that he can handle the pressure.

McCain, in trying to stress his experience, often lingered too much in the past.   That is a risky strategy for him.  The election is about the future, and both candidates claim to be about change.  While it is legitimate for McCain to make the argument he’s been around longer and has dealt with more issues than Obama, stories from the Cold War or the 80s — as well as name dropping — detracts from that notion of focusing on change or the future.

So debate one is over.  McCain headed into it weakened, having tried to “suspend” his campaign to focus on the economic crisis, only to have his efforts seem irrelevant.  Then, despite no deal having been reached, he had to change his mind on his pledge “no deal, no debate” and show up to avoid giving Obama the stage alone.  All this puts Barack a step closer to the Presidency.  There still is time to change the game for McCain, but right now the race seems to be moving towards an Obama victory, perhaps a big one.

September 26 - Sexism and Motherhood

Thought experiment:  Let’s say I told you (and this is true) that my wife and I both work, we have two young children, and we try to take care of the house work and child care as complete equals.  We share tasks, and since she (being a CPA) handles all the family finances, I tend to do the baths and put the kids to bed to give her time to do that.  My base salary is a bit less than hers, which is great — the more she makes the better!  I certainly am not bothered by that.  OK.  You might say, gee, I’m a good husband, having a modern appreciation of the challenges women face in the workplace.  You might pat me on the back, or say that she’s lucky to have me and not someone more stuck in the past.   NOW…what if I reversed what I wrote above.  What if she was saying that about herself, what if the roles were reversed?

If that were to happen, she’d get none of the praise I’d get.  Even though she’d be doing the exact same things I’m doing now, people would respond by saying she’s lucky to have a husband that shares the housework and childcare.  For doing the same thing I do she’d get no extra praise or credit, and some people would consider her benefiting from the way the relationship is structured.  See the inequality?  For doing what would bring a man considerable praise, the woman gets no credit, that’s expected of her.  That’s a deeply engrained societal prejudice, and one that is especially unfair to women.

Yesterday I saw an interesting presentation from psychologist Dr. Alison Terry on the difficulties mothers have breaking through the glass ceiling, getting top level positions at major corporations or in government.  The information she gave touches on a cultural bias that has bugged me since the birth of my first son over five years ago: the tendency to assume that mothers are supposed to do more with the children and the home.

I discussed this in my blog entry Fatherhood and Parenthood last June.  Dr. Terry’s talk, however, demonstrated to me the perniciousness of that bias, and the fact that while it may annoy me that magazines like Parenting seem to think mothers are the ones to take care of children and the house (’time saver for moms,’ etc.), the real victims are mothers in the workplace.

Mothers are harmed much more than average women.  Although women still tend to earn less in the work force, in a study where people were given basically the same resume, men with children were suggested for the job 70%, women with children (and the same qualifications) only 30%.  Whereas the salary recommendation for men and women was very close (I believe around $148,000 or so, with women slightly less than men), women with children saw the rate go down to $139,000, while children benefited men, raising it to $154,000.  That wasn’t the only study cited in a presentation full of information and examples, but it is an example that demonstrates the nature of this cultural prejudice.

Men having children benefit in their career because it is assumed they will be more stable and conservative.  They won’t try to job hop, they’ll be diligent, and there will be pressure to work hard to earn more for the family.  Women are hurt by having children because it is assumed they’ll miss more days due to child illnesses or other child care issues, and be more devoted to family than work.  This is exacerbated by our societal tendency to overwork.  Most people who earn over $100,000 a year work well over 40 hours a week, many even over 60.  They expect similar work ethics from their underlings, and see it as a lack of devotion to work to want to balance work and family.  This is unhealthy on a variety of levels, but at base it demonstrates a bias of material concerns over family — especially at the upper levels of society.  It becomes impossible to truly balance family and work because so much work is expected for anyone trying to move to the top.

There is no clear solution to this problem.  Our tendency to overwork increases stress and decreases quality family time.  Add that to our bias against mothers, and women again bear the heaviest burden.  Overt sexism remains as well.  It is common for people to say that sexism is a thing of the past, and indeed, we have made progress.  Yet here at Farmington business majors are predominately male, and it’s rare to find males in education — especially areas like Elementary and Early Childhood Education.    Which of those careers will earn the most money?

Since the problem is cultural, the solution rests with our culture, and it will take time to remedy.  I think we’re on that path.  Hillary Clinton, Sarah Palin and other women are starting to rise towards the top.  Nancy Pelosi not only became the first female Speaker of the House, but she’s being recognized increasingly as a very competent and tough leader.   And while only 2% of top leaders in Fortune 1000 firms are women, there is an increase in women in middle management.  Perhaps its only a matter of time before the culture shifts enough to create more balance.   At the same time, it’s important that today’s young boys grow up to NOT expect a wife to cook and keep house, but instead to see raising a family as a partnership.

While some families choose to have a parent stay home, it can be either the father or mother, and increasingly men are making that choice.  Also, I think we’re overcoming the false guilt given to parents who use day care.  The traditional way to raise children was to have the villages children together in one place, watched over while men and women did the work to survive.  Isolating kids with a parent and siblings doesn’t strike me as healthy, unless there are a lot of play dates and opportunities to interact with others.

Still, it’s infuriating that mothers still bear the highest cost.   The expectations of them are greater.  The man isn’t questioned and doesn’t feel guilty if the family hires a nanny or a maid, should both have high stress, high pay jobs.  Inlaws, parents and others pressure women to play roles that are obsolete.  The good news is that taking a birds eye view, things are changing slowly but surely, and such change can be nothing but slow — that’s how cultures work.  Our culture is shifting dramatically vast in many ways, the world is so much different in this regard than 20 or 30 years ago.  Mothers in the work world do have it far better here than in China or much of the world.  The only place with real equality seems to be Scandinavia.

But that doesn’t do much mitigate the discrimination that does exist now against mothers.   So all I can suggest is that we men try extra hard to do what we can to minimize the burdens, and put our egos aside if a women makes more money.  More money to the household is a good thing, no matter who brings it in!  More importantly, we should raise our daughters to believe they can do anything, and they expect a man who will be a supportive partner, and our sons to see girls as true equals.  June Cleaver, the stereotypical mom of the 50s, will hopefully be looked at in a few decades as reflecting a backwards and bizarre notion of womanhood.  Until then, Mother’s Day and International Women’s Day should be seen as reflecting a continuing cultural struggle for real equality.

September 25 Is the McCain Campaign Imploding?

John McCain, with polls showing a shift to Obama, and with blame for the current financial crisis being placed on the GOP, decided to suspend his campaign, and ask for a delay for the debate scheduled for Friday.  As Sarah Palin bombed an interview with Katie Couric, the McCain camp argued that the Presidential debate scheduled for Friday should replace the scheduled Vice Presidential debate, which would be rescheduled for “sometime.”  That would give Palin, who except for limited exceptions is being kept under lock and key from the press in a way that shows an almost insane paranoia about what she’ll say, more time to prep for a debate.  All of this suggests McCain knows he’s in trouble, and is trying to find some magic bullet to change the momentum.

Obama, of course, is having none of it.  If he were to agree to suspend his campaign, it would be a victory for McCain.  McCain would be seen to have been the leader — he had the idea, and Obama followed — and it would be a major change in conversation at a time when Obama is moving forward.   At this stage in the campaign, when strategies are set, only a candidate who perceives he’s in trouble wants to shake things up this way.  The most bizarre request was for a cessation in advertising.  It’s as if McCain wanted to say that because of the mistakes made by government and big money over thirty years we should stop having a discussion about the best way to move forward.  Instead, let’s hunker down in the Capital and talk with other politicians and focus on simply passing a bill.

The truth, of course, is that John McCain can’t really do any more good in Washington than on the campaign trail.  He can talk with Senators, advisers, and staff from anywhere in the country.  Moreover, the last time such a strategy was used was when President Carter at first didn’t want to campaign until all the hostages were released from Iran during the I980 campaign.  That didn’t work and he had to go on the campaign trail, politics doesn’t allow candidates to call “time out” at their whim.  If McCain were serious, he’d have suggested when Obama and McCain were talking that they do this together, to really put it above politics.  To make the first move and “challenge” Obama makes it blatantly and undeniably a political ploy — Obama has to aggressively point that out.

Yet, as with the gamble in picking Sarah Palin, McCain is going for something dramatic to alter the dynamics of the race.   His campaign probably figured that in a best case scenario Obama would follow suit and they’d be able to declare they led, and change the tone of the conversation completely.  In a worst case scenario they may figure they can fight to a draw by claiming McCain is putting country over campaign, and thus is the kind of person Americans need.

McCain does not get to script this for the opposition and pundits, however.  The Democrats, recognizing that this is a ploy, are not about to roll over.   Obama has the mostly positive message:  Now is the time for a debate, now is the time to have the leaders discuss the future, talk to the American people, and not escape to the comfort of the Capital.  He’s probably been as negative as he will be in noting that the President cannot drop everything for one problem.

Biden should be sharper.  He should hint that McCain has “panicked” and note that the timing of when this suddenly became a crisis for McCain coincided with dropping poll numbers.   In DC Democrats should follow the lead of Harry Ried: McCain can’t do any good simply being here, that’s not how the Senate works, etc.  Moreover, since the Democrats are the majority party, they can assure that McCain does not get credit for any sort of solution to this, and won’t be able to trumpet himself as the savoir of the deal.  That would even be tough if the GOP had the majority!

The pundits should point out that as bad as this is, it’s a financial mess that has been a long time in building, and which will take awhile to correct.  It’s not something a quick bit of legislation will fix, it’s in the corporate culture, the consumer culture that defines our society, and embedded in our financial regulations and institutions.  One can do more to address the entire problem by remaining engaged with the American people than by sitting in smoke filled rooms in the Capital, talking with other politicians.

To be sure, he could pull it off.  He’ll coordinate with President Bush to have the latter call for both candidates to return to Washington.  Obama has to respond aggressively.  That’s the “old politics” — a problem comes up, then stop talking to the American people and retreat into the marble buildings to work out deals to cover up past mistakes.  Talking about it and debating it in front of the American people would require having to take responsibility and show accountability.  How could this happen in the eigth year of President Bush’s Administration without the President having to be held to the fire for not being prepared?  How could people like John McCain, no stranger to scandal at financial institutions, talk about the “fundamentals being strong” and “free market solutions” for so long without having to tell the American people why.  To hide behind vague promises of “working on the economy” and “creating legislation” is only a method to distract from the tough questions and evade responsibility.  That’s the same old politics.

Obama will have to focus on the economy, show he is taking it seriously, and get a lot of support from colleagues in Washington.  But if he does that, McCain will start to look a bit ridiculous.  If it takes a long time to work out a compromise and McCain seemingly plays no major role, he will look like he panicked.  If the public discourse looks at this less like ‘putting American first’ and more like ‘grandstanding’ or ‘reacting to polls,’ he’ll squander anything he gained at the GOP convention.

Of course, this could be an effort to nix the VP debate, as it appears Palin is not quite as ready for prime time as many Republicans thought.   As time passes and she is kept in a kind of cone of silence most of the time, it becomes obvious she’s more image than substance.  She has a compelling story, is attractive, and something fresh.  But that does not a Vice President make.

To be sure this is a major crisis, on that McCain is correct.  Anyone reading my blogs over the past summer know I have long believed we’re facing a severe crisis in the US.  But it isn’t a crisis that can be fixed with one bailout, it’s not a crisis that requires just legislation.  It is a crisis with structural, spiritual, and societal dimensions.  It’s how our economy is built, what our values are, and the way consumerism and easy credit has eroded the social fabric and our capacity to keep capitalism on an even keel.  No legislation is going to address this, this bailout, as huge as it sounds, is only the first step.  McCain is treating it like it is a one time crisis that if he pass something, will make things alright.  In that he is fundamentally wrong, and sending the wrong message by heading back to Washington.

I think he knows that.  This is politics, it’s a campaign in trouble, trying a hail Mary pass to change the conversation from one that threatens not only McCain but vast numbers of Republicans on the ballot in November, to something else.  It won’t work.  In the past I’ve compared the 2008 election to that of 1980, with Obama the Democratic Reagan.  I’m starting to think this may be more like the 1932 election, with Obama in the role of Roosevelt.

September 24 - World In Motion

The title of my blog comes from a Jackson Browne released in 1989.  Here are the lyrics:

“Sun going down in the usa
Down on main there’s a family sleeping in a doorway
Around the corner you can hear the sound
People dancing around the golden calf
Those who have not, those who have

On the billboards and the t.v. screens
They got food and cars and toys and trucks and jeans
Like a homeless child’s fitfull dreams
Smiling faces free from wanting
Life’s abundances beyond counting

World in motion — speed your changes
Close your distances, find your angels
Lose your fears and meet your dangers
World in motion

Once we were running through smoke and fire
Running into the sun
In the rush of youth, for love and truth
Our deeds were done
Now we awake with a world at stake
And a race we run
We run

Sun going down on the usa
Sun coming up a hundred years away
On another world and another time
Things like hunger, greed and hatred
One way or another, gonna be eradicated

World in motion — speed your changes
Close your distances, drive your angels
Lose your fears and meet your dangers
World in motion

’till the world I look out at this world and see
Is the world I know this world can be
You have a volunteer in me
Now come on”

I bought the CD “World in Motion” in Munich, Germany in the summer of 1989.  I had a pre-dissertation research grant to start to explore my topic of East-West German relations.  I went to the Hertie store in Munich and paid 300 DM for a Sony Discman and bought three CDs — Jackson Browne’s, Billy Joel live in Moscow, and Udo Lindenberg’s greatest hits (he’s a German artist — one of my favorites).   In 1989 the world was in motion, especially in Germany.  That August I went to East Berlin for the first time, and in retrospect was there literally days before everything started to unravel.  After I left an exodus of East Germans through Hungary to Austria would spark protests and ultimately the collapse of the East German government.  The Cold War ended not because of the super powers and their policies (though Gorbachev could have continued it if he had supported the Stalinist East German government), but because of people taking power into their own hands.  In the next few years the Soviet Union would collapse, apartheid would end in South Africa, and economic globalization would take off.  The world was, indeed, in motion!

On the way home yesterday the song came on the radio, and it reminded how it had inspired my blog “title.”  And we still have a world in motion.  On the TV news this morning dour stories spoke of how the US intelligence services are now assuming a stark downturn in American power and influence in the world for the future.  Moreover, to get out of this financial crisis we have to raise $700 billion (we can’t just print it up without risking severe inflation), most of which will come from foreign sources.  While this can be seen as bad in that it will make us more vulnerable to countries like China and Saudi Arabia, the upside is that they become more invested in the American economy and don’t want to see us fail.  The result is an internationalization of the US economy.  This will weaken our sovereignty and make it much less likely we’ll be aggressors on the world stage (the bitter lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan also push us in that direction), but it might — at least for the optimists — lead to new international cooperation.  The pessimists, however, fear depression and war.

Simply, we need a fundamentally new vision of America and its role in the world.  The old patriotic slogans and bombastic claims that we don’t care what the rest of the world thinks or does need to be replaced by acceptance of interdependence, a stark, realistic recognition of our own vulnerabilities, and acceptance of the fact that the US does not determine what constitutes right and wrong in the world.   Our arrogance in rejecting treaties and agreements that don’t suit us — ranging from the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child to the Landmine Treaty and the International Criminal Court — needs to be tamed.  We don’t have the power to be arrogant any more.  That doesn’t mean we sacrifice our values or go along with whatever the international community wants, but we need to compromise and avoid seeing ourselves as somehow a superior, invincible and virtually infallible power.  That hubris is, in fact, what brought us down.

We also need to recognize this isn’t just about greed on Wall Street, government de-regulation or as some claim government over-regulation (that’s a tougher case to make).  It’s about our essential approach to politics and the world — we need to change our way of conceptualizing who we are, and what kind of world we find ourselves in.  It’s about our materialism, our inability to save, our refusal to learn more about the world — to focus on sensationalism and celebraties rather than issues and events.   We’ve been partying it up as a society, running up debts, building and bursting bubbles, enabled by a financial system that threw easy credit our way and said “don’t worry about the debt, no big deal, no need to save, just keep partying.”

The party’s over.  And it’s the generation coming up that is saddled with the debt, the price of our past arrogance, our abandonment of principle.  I don’t know if a bail out is a good idea — I know a lot of people who are opposed to it in principle, both on the left and the right.  At best it’s only a bandaid, at worst it might dissuade people from confronting the reality of this crisis.

September 23 - Schadenfreude in Europe

As the American economy reels from what could become the most dangerous crisis since the Great Depression, the view in Europe is a bit more cheery — especially on the continent, where the banking sector there does not face the same kind of dangers as here.  In Germany where banks make mortgages the old fashioned way — using depositor money to underwrite a mortgage, rather than going out on the credit market — there is a sense that the ‘cowboy capitalism’ of the United States is finally being outed for what it is: dangerous and wreckless.  The Europeans, often accused by the US of having too much regulation and government oversight are a bit gleeful of the fact that it is the lack of regulation and oversight which has led to the current problem in the US.

And, though one can forgive a little Schadenfreude, I was a bit taken aback by this (in the LA Times “Europeans Left and Right Ridicule US Money Meltdown”):

“The finance minister of Italy’s conservative and pro-U.S. government warned of nothing less than a systemic breakdown. Giulio Tremonti excoriated the “voracious selfishness” of speculators and “stupid sluggishness” of regulators. And he singled out Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, with startling scorn.

“Greenspan was considered a master,” Tremonti declared. “Now we must ask ourselves whether he is not, after [Osama] bin Laden, the man who hurt America the most. . . . It is clear that what is happening is a disease. It is not the failure of a bank, but the failure of a system. Until a few days ago, very few were willing to realize the intensity and the dramatic nature of the crisis.”

In an interview Thursday in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Tremonti drew a comparison to corruption-ridden Albania in 1997, when a nationwide pyramid scheme cost hundreds of thousands of people their savings and ignited anarchic civil conflict.

“The system is collapsing, exactly like the Albanian pyramids collapsed,” Tremonti said. “The idea is gaining ground that the way out of the crisis is mainly with large public investments. . . . The return of rules is accompanied by a return of the public sector.”"

For those of don’t know Italy’s history, corruption has been a major problem in Italian politics for years, and the Tangentopoli (bribe city) scandals of the 90s, which saw the destruction of major Italian political parties, and judicial prosecutions destroy careers of some of the most esteemed Italian leaders, led to a crisis that brought down the Italian system.  Even though they have restructured their institutions, Silvio Berlusconi’s troubles still evoke the idea that Italian politicians are prone to corruption.  To be lectured then by an Italian about corruption…well, that just doesn’t seem right!  Yet it does show how far the US has fallen.

The problems that we face are not just about American de-regulation, however.  Part of it is cultural.  Our society is built on debt, Americans are more willing than anyone to go without savings in order not only to spend now, but to borrow from the future.  That is unique in the western world, and thus mortgages and other loans are not financed through deposits from investors, but from credit markets, and more often than not foreign investors looking to profit.  Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were especially lucrative to foreign investment because they seemed to be generating continuing profit, especially during a housing boom, and were seen to be as safe as treasury bonds.

However, when the underwriting of such a vast amount of mortgages — almost half of the mortgages in the US — is done by two firms, the lack of diversification sets up the catastrophe we’re witnessing.   By bundling up mortgages into mortgage-backed securities, this also allows investment and trading to affect banks world wide.   The result is that the impact of a failure of these two giants would have been world wide, and could have led to a global crisis.

Back in July I wrote about our “carnvial consumerism,” noting how culturally we’ve become a hypermaterialist society, vulnerable to an “Economic Storm.”  The roots of this problem are not simply deregulation, or government connections with big business and lobbyists.   Rather, our problem is that we have become not only addicted to consumerism, but our economy is built on the myth that consumerism is good, beneficial, and natural.  Our real crisis is, in a sense, spiritual.  By that I don’t mean religious, I mean it is a crisis of meaning.  We have created a world where material wealth is the goal, and pursued it in such a way that we constructed a house of cards which now tetters on the brink of collapse.

The Schadenfreude in Europe is misplaced.  While we may be culturally more materialist and consumer oriented than the Europeans, they share many of the cultural attributes that made this crisis possible.  The desire to have fun and gain possessions means many Europeans do not have children — thus helping create a potential demographic disaster as society ages.  Moreover, the environmental problems caused by this consumer pursuit of more stuff affects everyone, and could be more consequential than the current crisis.  Finally, our political parties (except, to some extent, Green parties) are focused on material/economic concerns.  Socialist or free market, the concern is about economics first.  Somehow, to really deal with the issues facing us going forward, we need to find a way to think differently about our values.   This crisis might force the issue — here and abroad.

September 22 - Belief and Perspective

(This continues the line of thought started in my last blog entry)

One interesting question that comes up either in political debates, or in looking at history, is why do we think the way we do — why do we hold the political, religious, moral and social beliefs we do?  Because of the enlightenment, most people like to believe that they have considered the arguments, analyzed the issues, and have come up with what they think is the most reasonable perspective.   Even those who embrace a more conservative view that tradition should be upheld tend to support that with an argument that goes back to Burke’s progressive conservatism: traditions maintain social order, which is good for the community and makes people more likely to succeed.

I am convinced that we use reason primarily as a way to rationalize beliefs we have ‘from the gut.’  I see that in campus debates on things such as academic policy, in discussions between people of opposing political positions, and in religious and moral questions.   Moreover, I don’t think this is a bad thing, I suspect it’s simply how we think and behave.  Emotion motivates, reason rationalizes.

So where does our emotional perspective come from?  Some of it is hereditary, certainly.   Much of it comes from how children are raised, and the experiences they have early in life.  And while some of that can be very specific to the family and the parents, cultural has a tremendous impact.  It conditions us, and helps determine how basic genetic predispositions are expressed.

If you travel from Maine to the deep south, or South Dakota to New York City, you’ll see fundamentally different cultural perspectives expressed across the spectrum of politics and life.   Travel Europe, and vast differences exist not only between the US and Europe, but also within Europe itself.  I noticed once back when I was living in Bologna that litter lined the Italian train tracks (this was the 80s), but when you crossed the Austrian border suddenly everything was spotless.  I saw an Italian father once instruct his child to toss an empty can out the train window, something which just would not have happened in Germany.  In Germany people stand in line to wait to board a train, allowing the arriving passengers to first disembark.  In Italy people shove their way aboard, and those leaving often have to push past.  At first Americans and Germans look down at the Italians for being so pushy and disorderly — but when I lived in Italy and learned how the game was played it made sense, and worked just fine.

In my first year seminar we’re looking now at the renaissance, and it’s very difficult to get students to try to see the world through the mind of someone in that time period.   The core beliefs were so much different, our 21st century experience is hard to put aside.  When Steve Pane, the music professor, plays music from that era, and compares it to an earlier era, most people think it sounds pretty similar.  But Steve points out that to the ear of that age these would often be radically different pieces, and could cause outrage.  We don’t hear that any more, we experience the world differently.

When I hear political debates, and experience people with vastly different views on some core issues, I realize that my own perspective cannot be proven with reason.  No perspective can.  In fact, I believe what I believe because it is who I am.   Particular views on policies or details may change (e.g., I may be convinced to support a tax proposal, I might decide that International Studies maybe shouldn’t require study abroad), but core beliefs about fundamental issues are from, if not my gut, at least my heart and soul.  They are an expression of something inside of me, something shaped by my experience and to some extent my genetics, but they are not simply the result of my mind analyzing and assessing external data.  I think this is true for everyone, and explains why so many people who are honest, intelligent and good, often hold completely different perspectives on major questions.

So what does this mean?   First, to recognize that reason doesn’t give us an answer key, that meaning for life is dependent on things outside of our ability to materially measure, analyze and assess.   From there, we need to learn to understand different perspectives on their own terms, and in fact be fair to those perspectives — understand why good, smart people can believe differently.  If we do that, we can get along well with and respect people who might be otherwise seen as “political or cultural enemies.”

The biggest barrier in all of this is ‘fear of relativism.’  That argument goes: “you’re embracing relativism, that all that exists is different perspectives.  I believe in truth, so I can’t go that route.”   But I would say I’m actually arguing against relativism.

What most people who proclaim truth do is to say that their subjective values are true, and denying their ability to claim them as truth is relativist.  But what could be more relativist than to say that one can assert what they hold true as true?  Isn’t that relativism defined?  But people who do that also claim other perspectives are false, so they aren’t embracing the principle of subjective relativism, they’re taking a rather solipsistic view towards truth — they have it, anyone else is wrong, and to claim otherwise is to be dismissed as saying there is no truth.  After all, if one believes they have the truth, then to deny their belief would be to proclaim truth does not exist.

When put that way, it’s clear the ‘fear of relativism’ is misguided.  Nothing I wrote says there is no truth, only that in the murky world of human existence we see reality from a variety of perspectives and thus we have to recognize that it’s virtually impossible to know if what we believe is true without relying on an unproven assumption or belief.   This suggests that while we can’t find certainty, we might be able to reasonably think we are moving closer to the truth if we are willing to explore why we feel what we feel, recognize that those emotions are driving our beliefs and our actions, and then work to understand why others react/think differently.

A concrete example: After I lived a year in Italy and in Germany, I viewed American culture differently.  Things I took for granted, I suddenly appreciated more, or found fault with, having experienced a different way of doing things.  Learning to speak German caused me to also look at my own language differently, better understanding the grammar and how some concepts cannot be translated directly.  In short, as a person I believe I grew and my life became richer by incorporating an other culture and language — understanding it and living/speaking within it.  Why shouldn’t the same be true for intellectual travel — to spend time learning another perspective, different ways of thinking, and the like?  And if we do, then won’t it be easier to see our own motivations more clearly, and perhaps realize that once firmly held beliefs really are no longer in line with who we are.  By reflecting and understanding more perspectives, we change ourselves — just as learning a language or living abroad changes a person.

To me that’s exciting, it suggests a chance for continual growth and discovery.  We can look to other cultures, other languages, other periods of time, or other disciplines.  Learning about music, art, literature, politics, or various things outside our usual experience is rewarding not because we can get a better job or win trivia contests, but because it can help us grow, learn and expand our understanding of reality.   Does it really help bring us a step closer to “truth?”  I’d like to think so.

September 20 - Ideology and Economics

One of the most pernicious and misguided developments of the past century or so is the rise of ideology as a kind of secular religion.   Ideologies emerge as vast simplifications of reality in order to build theoretical frameworks that are based on certain core assumptions.  The result is a world view that yields some fundamental principles which in turn are used to justify and rationalize action.

One example is free market capitalism.  Assumptions are made about human behavior, an individualist ontology is adopted, and the result is a theory of how the market works (supply and demand, equilibrium, self-interested behavior yielding the best result, markets being better than bureaucracies in making decisions since markets gather massive amounts of information through individual choices, etc.)  This theory then provides policy prescriptions and a blueprint for the ‘best’ sort of economic structure.  If you take this to a logical extreme (i.e., if you forget that the ideology is based on a vast simplification of reality) then markets are always the answer, there should be little or no government, and the ideology guides every choice to be made.  In its most dangerous form, ideologues try to don the mantel of ethics and principle by defining the ideology as the central core of human meaning.  A few of these people become ideological zealots, uncompromising puritans whose need for meaning in life is filled by a secular religion, and they become as dogmatic as your most devout religious extremist.   Often these same people see religion as a myth for the small minded, and don’t recognize that they are just as tied to myth as the religious folk they ridicule.  Whereas the religious at least know they are taking a leap of faith, the secular ideologues believe that reason has given them an objectively true answer.

But then check the other side, the socialists.  They have an ideology that defines capitalism as inherently exploitative and crisis prone, which, obviously, it is.  Yet when faced with this they try to create an ideological alternative where there will be no crises and no exploitation, just people working for the good of the whole, and sharing in the wealth.  This is rationalized with an ideology that subordinates politics, culture, human nature and psychology to economics.  All that matters is the economic system, and if it is run properly, a truly rational and just outcome will emerge, one that will yield such success that individuals will be free from alienation and able to achieve their true desires.

Of course, this “objectively just” economic system can’t function without a government, and somehow human beings when given power in a capitalist system will exploit, while when given power in a socialist system will work for the good of the masses.  Anyone see a problem with that assumption?  People are what screw up capitalism, people are what screw up socialism, and people do so not just out of ill will or selfishness, but also because their actions are driven by their cultural beliefs, political values, and position in society.

Now, as governments step in to develop plans to attempt to guide economies away from the catastrophic dangers that credit market collapse would create, left and right alike cling to ideology as their source for prescriptions about what to do.   Many “free marketeers” are appalled that even Republican governments and candidates are embracing an intrusive government solution.  The problem, however, is not regulation or government action, but under-regulation and government inaction.  The problem is also that you cannot have a major economic system without it being prone to close government-business ties.  The ideological dream of a market system absent politics (or with minimal political involvement), or of a socialist system absent markets (or with intensely manipulated markets) are practical impossibilities.  Such perspectives are examples of ideology-driven understandings of reality, rather than consideration of how human society really works.

Simply, ideology does not give answers about economics.  At best theories about capitalism, socialism, and various types of economic structures can be useful to develop pragmatic approaches to economic problems.  Those who grab an ideology will simply look for solutions, or rationalize non-action, by applying a principle which they falsely believe to be based on objective truth.  Instead of taking into account different perspectives, thinking creatively for solutions, making compromises about accepting some market exploitation and inequities and some government interference for a balanced, mixed approach that isn’t perfect, but might be as good as we can manage, they want their “ism” pure and unvarnished.  Instead of thinking, they want an answer key that comes from a set of assumptions and principles.

The current crisis defies ideological thinking.  It cannot be addressed with glib “well, let them collapse, it was a bad investment” or “bail out everyone, they were all fooled.”  Instead, we have to think about the consequences of different policies, the fiscal realities the country faces, the danger that doing too much to rescue failing banks and firms might harm the economy in numerous other ways, while doing too little might allow the crisis to spread out of control.   Most importantly, we have to separate economics from ideology, at least ideological purity.  The world is too complex, ideologies are too shallow and incomplete.  Creative problem solving involves borrowing and taking from many theories in a way that practically deals with problems.

The stock market has bounced back up, but the crisis hasn’t passed.  People don’t know for sure what will come next, short term traders are glad government is thinking of a $1 trillion dollar bail out, long term thinkers are worried what that means for the value of the dollar, debt, and the US economy.  This also shows the folly of paying hundreds of billions for wars we can’t afford, and suggests that ambitious efforts to expand health care and social welfare may be out of reach for awhile.   Somehow both parties have to come together and realize that this problem is such that we can’t afford ideological fantasy or partisan posturing.  We need solutions.

And as for ideology?  One can imagine perfect systems, such as a totally free market somehow balancing everything with government simply standing by (or maybe not existing).  One can also imagine a utopian socialism, of people all with enough to live well, no exploitation, and a true sense of liberty.  One can theorize that either of these would be a true, ethical and correct system, but both are so out of touch with the world as it really is and people as they really behave that they are meaningless.  Become a secular capitalist or socialist ideologue, and you’ll end up angry and resentful at a world that isn’t anywhere close to how you believe it should be.

September 19 - Obama vs. McCain

Last June I gave my analysis of the Presidential contest between Barack Obama and John McCain.  There is nothing there I’d take back, but now that we know the VP candidates, have had the conventions, and the election is less than a month and a half away, has anything changed?

First, a brief review of the action between then and now.  Obama led in most polls in early June, but by a rather small margin.  By the time of the Democratic convention McCain had pulled slightly ahead, as July and August found the country with a bit of Obama fatigue after all the coverage during the primaries, and Hillary supporters rallied into “puma” groups, convinced somehow they could derail Obama.  At the Democratic convention the strong endorsement of Obama  by both Clintons, combined with a pick of Joe Biden for the VP spot, helped push Obama into a 5 or 6 point lead.  Then McCain electrified his base by choosing an unknown, a young photogenic conservative Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, to be his VP.  That helped give energy to the GOP convention, after which McCain pulled ahead by 3 to 5 points.  Now Obama is regaining slight leads in most national polls as the public learns more about Palin, and frets over the economic crisis engulfing Wall Street and beyond.

As predicted, the primary “scandals” of Rev. Wright and the like have not come  back to haunt Obama — usually once a candidate survives a scandal, he becomes immune to it, sort of like surviving a disease.   And, as predicted, the race has become nasty, with allegations flying back and forth, and both campaigns taking off the gloves early.  So have the fundamentals of the campaign shifted at all?

In a word - No.  Obama still is the favorite to win, and the keys remain the economy, the mood of the country against the Republicans, and Obama’s ground game — the fact that he has a more energized and enthusastic set of supporters, with the likelihood of increasing voter turnout in what could be an unprecedented scope.

The two “wildcards” — Palin and the Economy — are long shots for McCain.  Palin had a positive short term effect, energizing the GOP base, helping McCain with fundraising, and making Palin somewhat the anti-Obama: a young, inexperienced GOP candidate for reform and change.   But just as Obama fatigue set in and hard questions were asked about him, Palin’s ability to maintain this energy for the distance is questionable.  Already scandals back in Alaska and lack of knowledge on foreign affairs is hurting her.  Even worse, her warlike talk about Russia, and claim that we are fighting a “war for God” in Iraq — rhetoric which is a mirror image of how Islamic extremists talk — is bound to used by the Democrats to scare people as election day nears.  Moreover, elections are about the top of the ticket.  If Palin keeps attracting attention, grabbing center stage at GOP events, that might undercut McCain’s appeal come November.   Politically he may have had to take the gamble of choosing someone so inexperienced and untested, but it was a cynical choice, done for politics, and remains a long shot.

The economy is even worse news for McCain.  As much as he now wants to claim the mantel of fighting big business and looking out for the little guy, the fact he’s a Republican and the GOP gets associated with deregulation and free market excess hurts.  To be sure, I’m convinced BOTH parties are co-responsible for this crisis, and the blame game is futile, we should be talking about how to fix things.  But politically this issue is potentially enough to give Obama a landslide victory if he performs well in the debates.  The fact that Republicans in Congress are turning against Bush on these issues doesn’t help.  In an election like this, the parties have to speak with a clear message.  If the GOP appears divided, it hurts McCain.

State by state polls in recent days show a trend towards Obama; even Indiana is leaning Obama’s way.  Some believe that Obama should have chosen Hillary, and this would have negated the Palin effect.  I disagree.  Having the Clintons around would risk removing Obama from center stage, and weaken his ability to distance himself from the wild 90s, when the foundation of this crisis was really set.  Moreover, that assumes the Palin effect is more than a short term reaction to a new face.  This is America, we’re smitten at first, but the effect wears off.  Obama has gone through that, and survived.  Palin’s still untested.

However, there are some tricky unknowns still to navigate.  The attacks on Obama will continue, with claims that he’s strange, a radical, someone not to trust in difficult times.  The idea will be that many voters who might now be saying they support Obama will go into the voting booth and say, well, Obama may sound better, but they know they can trust an old white guy war hero as a ’safer’ choice.  In some ways, McCain’s choice of Palin might protect Obama from that reaction.  Race and gender still matter, and it is quite imaginable that racism might help McCain win.   This is not to say, as many defensive conservatives say whenever the reality of racism is brought up, that everyone who votes for Obama is racist.   Most just disagree with him, or think he’s not experienced enough.  But race will undoubtedly be a factor; there will be racial votes against Obama, plus minority voters who come to the polls for the first time and increase black turn out because Obama is black.  Race is a factor on both sides.

As of September 18, 2008 I still believe that this race will be decided primarily by the enthusiasm and organization Obama has “on the ground” in get out the vote efforts and a determined voting base.  I believe that the polls will remain close, but that on election day most swing states will tip towards Obama.  I still think the dynamics of the 1980 election, which put Ronald Reagan in the White House, are similar to the dynamics of this election — with Obama in the role of Reagan.  Of course in any campaign, anything can happen.

September 18 - Financial Crisis Worse than Terrorism

Stocks are down again by hundreds of points, below 11,000, as credit fears grip Wall Street.   The credit markets, under-regulated and drunk on the lure of easy profits from a housing bubble on the heels of a stock bubble, may be collapsing.  This is possible in part because of how long the crisis has been brewing.  Ever since the early eighties, when the Reagan Administration embraced a mix of increased public debt and de-regulation of credit markets, we’ve drifted on to ever shakier ground.  This is made worse by globalization, which allowed the US economy to appear more robust than it was, financing a 6% of GDP current accounts deficit through a massive influx of foreign funds.

CEOs and banking leaders may understand business and economics, but they are also human.  The environment is complex and turbulent, and it is easy to fall victim to two converging problems: avoidance of cognitive dissonance and groupthink.

The former comes from the quarter century of generally continued economic growth in the face of repeated warnings about dangers from the budget deficits, current accounts deficits, or bloated markets.  Just as those who should have known better in late 1999 prattled on about “Dow 60,000″ or “Dow 100,000,” arguing that a new economy changed all the rules, it’s really easy to get so caught up in what’s happening that gloom and doom prognostications just seem completely out of touch with reality.  And when the stock crash didn’t sink the economy, well, then the economy must be extremely resilient.  The diversity and size of the US economy became stock words to dismiss the warnings.  The economy is “fundamentally sound” they would say, as if that vague phrase simply pushed aside all the warning signs.

If you came to Wall Street in 1978 as a young 25 year old novice, by 2008 you were a 55 year old veteran of the economic storms, having heard warning after warning for decades, with the US economy always chugging forward.  It’s easy to laugh off warnings as ‘just more gloom and doom,’ and focus on the short term profit making strategies that always worked before.

Moreover, you get bolstered by those around you.  Everyone grabs on to a ‘free market ideology’ which dismisses the need for regulations and has a faith that the economy is always onward and upward.  It becomes very easy to ridicule and dismiss those with different views, rather than actually analyzing them and thinking about the reality of conditions.  Armed with ideology and decades of experience, one can imagine the Wall Street mover and shakers believing theh not only understands it all, but have seen it all.  They convince each other that the naysayers are just shrill Cassandras, forgetting that Cassandra always turned out to be right!  The result: hubris.  A pride that causes one to be blind to forces that can destroy oneself — or in this case, the economy and some major financial institutions.

However, this is not just some contained crisis that will pass and impact only big names on Wall Street.   It’s also more than a short term crisis that will ripple through the economy and create a painful but not too intense or lengthy downturn.  This isn’t 1991, nor is it 1980.  First of all, globalization has changed the nature of the game.  It allowed the US to avoid painful adjustments when they could have happened by simply financing an obscene current accounts deficit with foreign capital.  Without that influx of money, the stock market of the 90s might have stayed within reason, and there may not have been the housing boom caused in part by easy credit.  We could not have maintained the fiction of a ’strong consumer economy,’ as inflation would brought us back to earth.

Yet the impact of globalization also means that we may still be only at the tip of the iceberg.  Economic power has been shifting over time from the US towards China and India.   The oil rich states have also benefited from high oil prices, and a massive outflow of funds from the US.  They’ve often used that money buy US companies and stocks, at least until the last year or so.  Then the inevitable happen.  The last bubble burst, oil prices rose, and the US dollar started to decline in value.  The result was a slow motion unraveling of the economy which now is starting to spin out of control.  The consequences are profoundly more dangerous than the threat of terrorism we all feared after 9-11.

Jobs will be at risk, potentially even otherwise hypersecure jobs like teaching at a state university.  Retirement plans could collapse, infrastructure building and upkeep could fall apart.  Inflation could decrease the quality of life for everyone.  Politically, this could cause a massive surge leftward, as people will be angry and demand punishing the rich.  This could also cause a massive surge rightward, if people get angry and demand punishing the foreigners whose economies fare better than ours.  Nationalist emotion has historically been a very real reaction to domestic chaos, most obviously in Germany at the time of the Great Depression.

Most people are oblivious to this.  They know there is a crisis, they know they fear for the future, are experiencing real inflation, and having difficulty making ends meet.   They may not be able to pay their mortgages, or if they can, they see their retirement accounts sinking.  The knee jerk reaction is to look for a quick fix, or to ‘blame the greedy ones,’ but blame games and quick fixes are in short supply.  This has been a crisis building since 1980, when we started heavy deregulation and increasingly irrational economic policies.  We’ve watched imbalances grow for over a quarter century, and we’re now vulnerable in ways not seen since WWII.

The dangers this entails to our way of life are far greater than anything terrorism could cause.  While fighting a quixotic “war on terror,” we’ve squandered hundreds of billions and increased our vulnerability at our true point of weakness — our economy.  While focusing on homeland security, threats from extremists abroad, and geopolitical fantasies of “spreading democracy,” the very fabric and foundation of our national strength has been eaten away, to the point that a credit crisis could push us into severe recession, and any kind of oil shortage could strangle the economy.

We focused on the obvious and easy to understand threats of “bad guys with bombs” and a President who will “keep me safe,” ignoring the complex and difficult to grasp threats coming with globalization, a fetish for deregulation caused by an ideological faith in “markets,” and corrupt ties between business and government.  The apparent economic success after the end of the Cold War hid the growing economic decay, even as some publications and pundits pointed in horror to imbalances and warning signs that in retrospect will seem all too obvious.

Is this a done deal, are in on the verge of catastrophe?  I don’t think it is a sure thing, I think there are ways to get out of this.  We’ll have to cut government spending (including major cuts in defense spending, replacing our rambo like foreign policy with true multilateralism and cooperative ventures), regulate financial markets effectively, decrease regulation that stymies economic innovation, and pragmatically put aside ideological agendas to deal with a crisis.   That might mean putting off health care reform, tax cuts, and other policy goals.  But like a family that has to tighten its belt and make sacrifices to get through a crunch, we as a nation have to pull together to do likewise, and do so in a way that doesn’t just shift the burden to an ever growing underclass.  Are we up to the challenge?

September 16: Dallaire: Hero of Rwanda

Every semester when I teach World Politics I start with a unit on the Rwandan genocide.  We see videos, and read the long but powerful book Shake Hands With the Devil by Romeo Dallaire.  I tell students not to worry about the academic side for these first two weeks.   Academia focuses on theories and objective analysis, and we’ll get to that later on in the course.  Humans are both head and heart, however, and I require students to write each day about the relevant section of Dallaire’s book, and what is covered in class, in terms of what it makes them think and feel.  The papers the students write are powerful in their own way.  Many have never heard of Rwanda, or even know much about what is outside the US.  As they discover the horror that humans can inflict on each other, they grapple to make sense of it, often ranging from anger to despair.  I get tears in my eyes not only from Dallaire’s book, but even reading what students write about their reaction to the book.

Romeo Dallaire was made commander of the UNAMIR mission designed to implement the Arusha accords in Rwanda.  However, when the Rwandan President was murdered and the Inherhamwe militia began it’s attempt to exterminate Tutsis, the UN pulled most of its forces out.  The US and UK opposed even keeping Dallaire’s small contingent of 450 men (mostly Ghanans and poorly trained and equipped Bangladeshis), while France actively supported the Hutu government, arguing that the government was trying to bring order to Rwanda, and it was simply the out of control Interhamwe that was the problem (which was untrue).

The basic history — that Dallaire’s force was too small to help and perhaps should have just left — misses the point on what Dallaire’s experience means.   Dallaire is a French Canadian military man from a military family.  When he was 47 he got the job to head the UNAMIR (United Nations Assistance Mission In Rwanda) force, noting that all he knew about Rwanda is that it is “somewhere in Africa.”  The UN, burned by the Somalia case a year before, thought Rwanda would be an “easy” case.  The two sides, Tutsi and Hutu, wanted peace, with Hutu moderates willing to share power with the Tutsis.

The reality of the situation was one that the UN apparently did not comprehend.  Ever since the Belgians had brought down ugly European racism in the early 20th century to declare ethnic superiority of the Tutsis and to give them elite positions, the hatred of the Hutus for the Tutsis grew.  The Tutsis were only 15% of the population, but were given education, power and perks by the Belgians.  From the time even before Rwandan independence in 1962 to the genocide there were angry repressions of Tutsis, and massacres on both sides.  The Tutsi RPF formed in neighboring Uganda to serve as a base of operations for Tutsis.  Their demand was power sharing.  Hutu moderates were willing to give them that, but Hutu extremists thought that the Tutsis should have no part of power in Rwanda, having been puppets of the Belgian colonizers and being a small minority in the country.   To prevent this power sharing from happening, they decided to try to kill off all the 1.2 million Tutsis in Rwanda.

Dallaire’s UN force watches helplessly as horror comes to the country.  From April 6th to mid-July, in 100 days, over 800,000 Rwandans are killed, a pace of death that surpasses even that of the Holocaust or Stalin’s death camps.  The killings are done more often than not by young boys, about 15 or so, and everyone is targeted from the elderly to young children.  They are killed with guns and machetes, as bodies lie in streets, rivers and throughout the city, creating a stench that Dallaire’s UN forces had to constantly burn bodies and fight the urge to vomit.   Dallaire pleads with the UN, feeling neglected as they lack food, medical supplies and basic equipment for even their small force.  He’s convinced that, given how one UN soldier can often hold off dozens of Interhamwe, who are poorly trained and often teens, a UN show of force of even just 5000 soldiers could have stopped the killing.  Instead, the world looked the other way.

Dallaire and his forces live through hell, targets themselves, enduring a torture made worse by the inaction of the rest of the world.  After all, these were tribal blacks in Africa, killing each other, no big deal.  But the problems in Bosnia, well, those were white Europeans!  Racism?  It has to be, how else could it be so easy to ignore such atrocities.  As Nick Nolte, playing a composite character based in part on Dallaire, says in Hotel Rwanda, “We think you’re dirt…the superpowers, the West…you’re not even a nigger, you’re an African.“  He says the word “African” as if it were the foulest thing on the planet.  Of course Dallaire, and the Nolte character, are criticizing the world for abandoning Africa — our racism and disregard for the humanity of people who are “different” is on proud display.

Dallaire returns, forgotten (no one wants to think about Rwanda), suffers post-traumatic stress disorder, takes heavy medication, and once is found near death from anti-depressants and alcohol on a park bench in Quebec.   He finally writes his book and now appears to be recovering, though he’ll never be the same as he was before he went through that hell.

But as we discuss the book and the event, it occurs to me that Dallaire is a true hero.   Unlike most of the world, he refuses to give in to the temptation to see the Rwandans as unnecessary.  He refuses to give up the mission.  He refuses to mourn the dead peace keepers (ten Belgians) more than the hundreds of thousands of Rwandans.  He never stops seeing the Rwandans as human, never gives up trying to find a way to save the country, and then blames himself for the fact that the mission failed, that he couldn’t shame the world into doing more.  In one of humanity’s most shameful and brutal hours, he maintains a sense of decency, principle and humanism, and tells the story in brutal, heart shaking, and anger inducing candor.  His story means that when President Clinton says “we just didn’t get what was happening,” or Belgian politicians attack Dallaire for “not rescuring the Belgian peace keepers,” we don’t fall prey to those kind of simple attacks, we can know the real story.

Heros are those individuals who do something great, sacrificing themselves for others.  Dallaire sacrificed the rest of his life, having to endure psychological and emotional scars that are with him forever, in order to be able to tell an honest story about humanity at its worst — and in the form of Dallaire and his compatriots, also at its best.   He shows the contradictions and banality of world politics, with diplomats and leaders putting abstractions and power games over humanity, and then finding excuses to dismiss their errors.  He exposes the hypocrisy of principles that say “never again” after the Holocaust, but then take no action, depsite having stark and honest reports from a UN commander on the scene.  It also shows the evil that colonialism created, sparking failed corrupt states, ethnic violence and a destroyed political and economic culture across Africa.  While some in the West arrogantly dismiss such folk as primitives, priding themselves on our superiority, it’s clear here we’re refusing to take responsibility for the fruits of our actions.

Dallaire shows students from the start that world events are not abstract things that leaders do or just involve countries interacting.  It’s about humanity.  It’s about children, killing, gang rapes, poverty, and massive amounts of money being spent for great powers to pursue their own particular interests, while not spending even a tiny bit for those places deemed unimportant.  His description of Rwanda is an indictment of the international system and the values of the West.  His actions and effort to help is a redemption of those same values, an example of what it means to put principle first.

In political science “social forces” are often given precedence over individuals.  Abstract theories and cool detachment are valued over empathy and sentiment.  Dallaire’s book is also an indictment of that social science, showing that heroism is real, and theory and analysis without emotion and empathy is worse than cold, it is deadly.

September 15: Economic Collapse?

In the post “Future Uncertain” last June, one commentator named Mike wrote:

“An economic collaspe is not only concieveable but it is HIGHY likely. The mainstream media is not telling people the full extent of the credit market woes. Ten of billions (Possible up to a trillion) more dollars will be wote down by banks in the coming months. It would one thing if the toxic watse dumping was finished but these banks are going to flood the market with a lot more of these bad loans. The markets can’t withstand any more…. The Dow will most likely be below 10,000 by the end of July…”

Now, Mike’s prediction of the Dow below 10,000 by July turned out to be wrong, but as we watch the markets wobble over the problems at Lehman, it is becoming painfully clear that Mike may have been off primarily in his timing.  The United States could be facing the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression.  We just can’t tell how deep the problems are, or how they’ll play themselves out.  But consider the drama of the past couple weeks.  First, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are literally taken over by the government.

We’re talking about nationalization of the most important financial backers of home mortgages, seized by a Republican pro-market government, obviously without enthusiasm.  The reason they took over these giants is that they had no choice — if they failed, the mortgage market in the US would have ground to a halt, unleashing tremendous economic hardship to just about every sector of the economy.  Why this happened was clear: close ties between these two corporations and government had led to laws that made it progressively easier for them to back mortgages without oversight.  That’s fine when the market is booming and home values soaring.  But when the bubble bursts, it was disaster.

Is this a domino effect that could reck havoc throughout the entire banking sector?  Is this a limited problem?  Nobody knows, but as with Enron a decade ago, it’s possible that the financial sector has been skating buy the last few years with accounting tricks and short term book keeping shemes to avoid having to publicly admit how bad things are.  Consider: you might be making a decent salary, but yet due to purchases and poor spending habits, be in severe debt.   For a long time you can keep this secret from your closest friends and in some cases, even a spouse.  You can kite credit cards (get a new card to make minimums on the old), do home equity loans, find ways to make that debt something that isn’t felt in your day to day life.  It may drive you crazy when you think about it, but you can usually find ways to get by another day.  This can go on for years.

But when things start to go south, they go south fast.  Soon you’re missing payments.  Then suddenly interest rates jump from below 10% to above 20%.  Suddenly you can’t get new loans, your house has negative equity and the result is personal financial collapse or bankruptcy.  Now, what if the banking sector as a whole has this sort of problem?  Drunk on the easy money and loose credit of the early part of the decade, they got themselves in over their head, perhaps expecting continued economic growth to simply allow them to go on making large short term profits.   It wouldn’t be consumerism in this case, but “buying” more interest-bearing loans, with the idea that the money will be paid back and profits would rise.   When the bubble bursts, then the whole thing implodes, as happened at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and now Lehman.

One hopes that the other financial giants are on solider ground, but we’re not sure how solid, or who might be next.  The fact that it’s so difficult to find other firms to buy Lehman and limit the scope of this credit shows the relative weakness of the entire financial industry.   Add to that the troubled economic conditions: continued high oil prices (even if not as a high as mid-summer), a current accounts deficit, a weak dollar, and high unemployment.   The result is an economy as vulnerable as ever.  When we had our last major recession, the period of stagflation from 1979-81, the fundamentals were sound, but there was a real financial risk there as well.  The US still had a current accounts surplus, the oil price increases were artificial, due to tension in the Persian Gulf that would soon be allayed, and the dollar was healthy.  The credit markets, still mostly national and regulated as this was the ‘pre-globalization’ period, had only one glaring problem: the debt crisis.

The debt crisis emerged due to the way oil rich states invested “petrodollars” into major western financial institutions.  Those institutions in turn loaned money in vast amounts to third world states, on the premise that without strings attached these states could allow the market to lead investment and growth, and the loans would be paid back easily.  It didn’t happen.  Much of the money in fact went to buy oil, and the rest usually went to failed projects or into corrupt coffers, divied it between various bureaucrats and bigwigs.  When the truth came out that third world states might default, thus putting the entire western financial system in crisis, people panicked.  At the time, the prognosticators also speculated about financial collapse.  Is this another one of those crises we can get through?

Time will tell, but the way out of that crisis was: A) Buy time.  Short term loans were made to third world states so they could make interest payments, thus keeping the loans on the books as assetts for the banks; political pressure kept third world states from defaulting.  If they had defaulted, they may have lost aid, short term credit (necessary for trade), and access to markets; and B) Diversify risk.  Loans were sold at a loss to other banks, spreading around the risk rather than centralizing it with the major banks.   To be sure, high debt levels still exist, despite forgiveness of a lot of government debt.  But the threat to the western banking system has been mitigated.

This crisis is different.  It’s not one so easily controlled, as it is more than just a few states, and the sources of the crisis are the fundamentals of the credit markets, not just really bad decisions by banks on loans to third world states.   Still, no doubt the movers and shakers on Wall Street are in board rooms and on conference calls, trying to figure out the best way to handle this.  Perhaps they can come up with solutions, like in the late 90s when the ‘contagion’ in Asian currency markets threatened the world economy, or the response to the debt crisis.  Perhaps they cannot, like in 1929 when, after several short term efforts to steady the stock market succeeded, it finally crashed.

So while the political junkies argue about lipstick wearing pigs, who’s gaffe is up next, or who lied about what, the US economy stands in the balance.   The next few months may decide if we recover from these problems with a reformed, but able credit market, or if this is the start of a collapse that may profoundly harm our quality of life and material conditions.

September 14: Is Iraq ready to explode?

People are beginning to realize that the “surge” is not the reason for reduced violence in Iraq.  The story I linked there repeats the argument I made a couple weeks ago that Iran is the reason that violence is down, and Iranian influence is actually bad news for the US in overall strategy.  But, because the US wants to find a way out of the debacle in Iraq, the Bush Administration isn’t countering the Iranian influence — they are willing to accept a real defeat in favor of a propaganda victory that might help the McCain campaign.  Apparently they are willing to lose a war in order to win an election.

Moreover, Americans on the scene are very afraid that the lack of political progress over these months of relative calm may be setting the stage for an increase in violence.   This worry underlies concern that Iraq is about to explode.  For the Bush Administration, the hope is that all the shit hits the fan AFTER the election, so that they can continue the fallacious argument that the surge is working.

This is a short entry today, but the topic is huge.  The US fought a war in Iraq that successfully deposed Saddam Hussein, but failed in every other goal.  Iraq is not a functioning democracy, not even close.  They held elections, but the government is a Shi’ite dominated bloc that only controls Baghdad and some Shi’ite areas, often because of a deal between Iran, Iraq and a few militias.  The Sunnis and Kurds control their regions, and if the Shi’ites try to extend control, the violence will expand again.  The dream of Iraq as a model democracy to alter politics in the region is dead, and the US policy has failed utterly and completely.

The reason for war in Iraq was ostensibly about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.  They didn’t exist, and that was never the reason for the war.  The war was a bold attempt to change politics in the region, make Iraq a pro-American democratic enclave, and use Iraq to pressure other states like Iran and Syria.  The failure to do so cost billions, as well as tens of thousands of lives and America’s position in the world.  It was a costly and dramatic failure.  Now there is an attempt to create a smokescreen, a claim that a “surge” somehow has turned things around, simply because deaths are down.

But the main goals haven’t been reached.  The country is in a precarious situtuation, with renewed violence likely when the right spark is struck.  Even the US military acknowledges this, although the Administration and the McCain campaign continue to put lipstick on the Iraq pig.   The American public has been fooled by this, exhausted by the Iraq war, and not wanting to hear continuing headlines.  The hope that the decrease in violence will lead us out is enough.

The reality is far different.  This has been a costly defeat to the US and the US military.  Our status in the world is diminished, our economic position is precarious, and we lack the capacity to counter states like Iran if they choose to pursue paths contrary to our interests.  We are in many ways an ex-superpower, even if that is unacknowledged.  And, once it becomes clear that the surge did not bring success, then the full diaster of the last eight years will have to be acknowledged.

The good news is that even if the PR machine spins this positively long enough for McCain to win, he is realist enough to be able to make a real change of course.   One has to hope he stays healthy, because I’m not sure Palin is up to the task.  Obama should be able to make changes, as long as he doesn’t have to feel he has to “prove his mettle” by acting tough.  In any event, a change is coming.  I hope Iraq doesn’t explode.  But no matter what happens the US will sooner or later have to accept the fact that our days as a superpower are over.

September 13 - Is Al-Qaeda winning?

Ironically the day after McCain and Obama together commemorated the seventh anniversary of 9-11, the news coming from Afghanistan became both depressing and alarming.  The situation in Afghanistan, the war supposedly “won” in 2001, is far worse strategically for the US than the situation ever was in Iraq, and in Afghanistan the fight is against the actual terrorists and extremists who attacked us.  And while McCain wants to maintain the delusion that the “surge” of military troops is what’s created more stability in Iraq recently, his attempt to claim Afghanistan could be turned around by a “surge” is patently absurd.  Iraq improved because of retreat from the idealistic effort to turn Iraq into a model democracy, and apparent acceptance of heavy Iranian influence in Iraq’s future.  That’s one reason General Petraeus admits that the US will never leave Iraq with a victory.  Unfortunately, the kind of political changes that helped in Iraq aren’t possible in Afghanistan.

Consider recent events:  The US undertakes a ground raid inside Pakistan.  This creates real anger, and the Pakistani army is told to fight against any foreign intruders into Pakistan.  The message is clear: Pakistani sovereignty must be respected.   But that crisis is likely to get worse rather than better.  Reports from Reuters states it is US fear that it is losing against the Islamic extremists in Afghanistan which prompted increased cross border raids.  Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, openly admits we’re not winning there, and claims to be considering a comprehensive strategy that would encompass “both sides of the border.”

But will it work?  Another air attack today killed at least 14.   Pakistani ire is not something the US can dismiss.  Pakistan has nuclear weapons (and the technology and materials to make them), and there are already close ties between the Taliban and Pakistan’s secret police.  The Pakistanis may not really be able to stop the raids inside their territory, but they can probably do considerable damage to the US by increasing their support of anti-American forces in Afghanistan.   This could be a no-win situation for the US.

Tribal leaders in Waziristan, Pakistan are threatening to throw away their deal with the Pakistani government if it doesn’t stop the US raids.  That would eliminate any chance the Pakistanis could act effectively againstn al qaeda in the southern Wazir region, and could in fact inspire the tribal leaders to be more friendly and give more assistance to the forces fighting the US.

Moreover, NATO forces are refusing to join the US in any fighting or attacks that violate Pakistani sovereignty.   European public opinion is likely to become more opposed to the war, and Europe’s continued participation there (even if the US and UK do most of the actual fighting), threatening to weaken an already weak NATO force.  Germany is set to increase force levels, but may find it difficult to get parliamentary approval in the face of this kind of news.  The German parliament will vote on this in October, and already there have been targetted strikes on German forces, perhaps meant to undercut any troop increase.   Germany already refuses to send troops to the most volitile regions, keeping its forces in the more secure north.

Admiral Mullen noted that the keys to success in Afghanistan were primarily economic and political: building roads, helping create an infrastructure, and giving Afghanistan the kind of aid it needs to create a stable system.  As he put it: “We cannot kill our way to victory and no armed force anywhere, no matter how good, can deliver these keys.”  Yet after nearly seven years of talking about the need to rebuild and give aid to Afghanistan, if things are this dire, what’s the likelihood that there will be a major change?  And with the Taliban resurgent and the US military overstretched, what are the options?

The US in the seven years since 9-11 has made error after error.   Hopefully we’ll leave Iraq soon, but it won’t be a real democracy, and likely be closely tied to Iran, with internal divisions that could create civil war remaining in tact.  Relations with Russia have deteriorated, in part because of aggressive American foreign policy that treated Russia as a second rate player, one that had to do things “our way” in order to have influence.  That may have seemed reasonable when Russia looked weakened and fragile.  But with oil over $100 a barrel, those days are gone.  Now we have a Vice Presidential candidate even hinting that war with Russia might be necessary, a bizarre and dangerous statement.  The US economy has gone into crisis, with the debt balloning, the housing market in shambles, and the US currency weakened (and still suffering a large current accounts deficit).  While there has been improvement in the NATO alliance since 2005, the days of American leadership are over.  Add to that fact it looks like we’re losing Afghanistan, and haven’t been able to defeat Bin Laden or the Taliban, and one has to soberly admit that the attacks of 9-11-01 seem on the path to succeed in their overall goals.

Where do we go from here?  The only answer is a complete shift in focus.   We obviously aren’t going to go to war against Russia, I suspect the Bush Administration concluded awhile back that war with Iran wasn’t viable, and Pakistan is more unpredictable than ever.  The US needs to first create a regional diplomatic outreach, involving the countries around Afghanistan: China, Iran, Russia, the Central Asian Republics, and Pakistan.  In general, the lesson since 2001 is that while lashing out violently against enemies can seem effective and get public support, that support wanes, and soon one realizes that in the 21st century, these kinds of conflicts don’t lend themselves to military solutions.   Cooperative diplomacy, a willingness to work even with regimes we dislike, and a rejection of idealistic efforts to “spread democracy” is really the only way we can turn this around.  We have to recognize that we are not as powerful as we thought, and adjust accordingly.

If the fact that after this long we are in such a difficult situation in Afghanistan, a war people thought was over and won, doesn’t convince people that we’re on the wrong path, I don’t know what will.

September 12: 9-11 and Lipstick Wearing Pigs


Last year John McCain said that Hillary Clinton’s health care plan was the same as what was rejected 15 years ago, “you can’t put lipstick on a pig” and get something different, he noted.  I don’t recall too many people accusing McCain of calling Hillary Clinton a pig.  The other day Obama used that same phrase (one I’ve used many times as well) to describe McCain’s claim of being the candidate of change.  The Democrats want to argue that McCain is more of the same, and that McCain’s new “change” mantel is just make up.  Yet suddenly the McCain campaign was accusing Obama of calling Sarah Palin a pig.  I mean, huh?  The campaign had reached a surreal depth even more strange than Democratic outrage over a supposed subliminal reference to them as “rats” eight years ago.

Of course, the Obama ‘war room’ shot back, and we were subject to a lovely debate about who should be outraged, which campaign is smearing the most, and if choosing Hillary would have been smarter for Obama because it would create more balance.   Discussions of policy are probably taking place somewhere in candidate appearances, but to watch the media, the main issue on the minds of Americans is that of lipstick wearing pigs.

Yet seven years ago the US was hit by a terrorist attack that changed people’s perceptions about the kind of world we face.  While anyone paying attention to terrorism knew it was a matter of “when” not “if,” far too many Americans were blissfully ignorant of things taking place in their world.  The world did NOT change on 9-11-01, people just woke up to what kind of world we’re in!  To be sure, that attack was in objective terms rather minor.  The World Trade Center was brought down, but we’ve done far more property damage in each of our recent wars (Serbia, Afghanistan, and Iraq), and the deaths of almost 3000 people is paltry compared to the number we’ve killed, including the number of innocent women and children who have died from American weapons.  In fact, car accidents kill more in a month than were killed on 9-11.

But terrorism isn’t about actual damage.  Terrorists use that method — a rational, if an immoral one — because they do not have the capacity to mount a real military assault.  How on earth can a group of fanatical religious folk in Afghanistan hurt the US?  They don’t have an airforce, they don’t have ships, and the US spends half the world’s military budget.   The US is, in essence, invincible by any kind of traditional military attack.  Terrorism is the logical recourse for a committed, but weak, foe.

Terrorism is designed to incite fear, and cause people to do things they wouldn’t otherwise do.   For Bin Laden and al qaeda there is one fundamental goal: to weaken and if possible bring down the western economy.   It’s no accident that the “world trade center” was targeted, or that rumors of future terror attacks include assaults on Saudi oil facilities.   From the stand point of al qaeda, the US is a military giant with a glaring Achilles heel.  We are dependent on oil and cheap foreign goods for our lifestyle, and our economy has some glitching problems.  As I note in future uncertain and the economic storm, it wouldn’t take a lot to create a severe crisis or depression.

Seven years after 9-11, the panic of that day seems a distant memory.  We may be a bit embarrassed by the hyper nationalism that briefly hit the stage, silly music about sticking a boot up the ass of foreigners, or condemning the Dixie Chicks for saying things about President Bush that are mild compared to the kind of criticism he’s gotten recently from even Republicans.  Yet terror networks are patient.  Bin Laden declared war on the US in 1991.  The first attack on US soil came in 1993.  The second was eight years later.  In between there were foreign attacks, as there have been the last seven years.  All it takes is one event, something which still could happen at any time.

All this makes the surreally silly and nasty political campaign a sad commentary on America in 2008.  Rather than really having a debate about the kind of change needed, we’re fed slogans, we see gotcha games to catch the other candidate in a brief verbal lapse (e.g., McCain’s houses).  I don’t think it’s the candidates’ faults either; I suspect from their background both Obama and McCain would prefer an issues oriented discussion.  McCain prefers town meetings to talk with folk; Obama prefers organizing at the root level and inspiring folk.  Yet both candidates have substance.   The dynamics of American politics today push towards this kind of marketing campaign.  The country is too big, power is too centralized, and the media too willing to go for sensation over substance.

I noted in “America and the Troglodytes” the fear that the US political culture is moving away from a functioning democracy, and this kind of mass politics, or politics as sensation/war, is bad for the country.  The fact we spend more time on gotcha games and personality politics rather than thinking about how to fix our very vulnerable economy, or deal with deteriorating conditions in Afghanistan, a ‘war’ that the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said we can’t win just be increasing military involvement, is troubling.  In fact, the GOP convention hardly mentioned Afghanistan at all, the Democrats only talked about it as an example of Bush Administration failure.  Yet warnings come out daily that we’re losing time and Afghanistan could easily be lost.  Who’d have thought that seven years ago?

In my “first year seminar,” Italy through the Ages, we spent a good deal of time this week reading about ancient Rome, and making comparisons, both culturally and politically, to modern America.  While we found a vast number of similarities and numerous differences, one point stands out.  Rome seemed too big and powerful to fail.  Its multi-cultural, multi-ethnic diverse population interacted in a way that wasn’t just Romans dominating subjected people, but developing shared cultural norms.  But fall it did.   Despite linking much of Europe with paved roads, and supplying water with aqueducts, it collapsed from within, slowly.   The Roman Republic gave way to Empire as leaders became corrupted by wealth, seduced by expansive power, and believed in their own invulnerability.  The public moved away from initial virtues towards being spoiled and decadent.  Despite great accomplishments and great learning, nothing could stop the slide.

We aren’t there yet.  But we are at a point where our choices will determine whether or not we’ll be able to handle the challenges facing us.   Maybe we need to cut government, decentralize power, become less aggressive on the world stage, be more cooperative in dealing with global issues.  I’m not sure — there is no clear answer about what needs to be done.  But one thing is certain: talking about lipstick wearing pigs and engaging in politics as smear and gotcha games is NOT the way to go.

September 11:  A Holographic Universe?


For years now I’ve been awaiting yesterday morning’s big event: the large hadron collidor at CERN (on the border of France and Switzerland) was turned on, with the goal of recreating conditions just after the big bang (as in a millionth of a second after). It’s not clear what will be found, but given the puzzles and uncertainties in existing particle physics, it’s virtually certain that we’ll discover a lot about the nature of our reality.

I’ve had a fascination with modern physics, in particular particle physics, for quite some time. I don’t understand the math, and the concepts are often really tricky. From renormalization to quantum chromo dynamics and the electro-weak theory (including quantum electro-dynamics) trying to figure out what is going on and what it means is difficult, especially for us lay people on the outside. Yet it is important for anyone truly curious about what this world is all about, what is the nature of reality.

It appears that ‘matter,’ or ‘particles’ are actually just ripples in fields. Moreover, these ripples are probabilistic, meaning that they don’t have any particular fixed state. Somehow they seem to fix in our experience of reality, but we’re not really sure why. Also, they have mass — some are quite massive (relatively speaking), others have no mass (like a photon or electron). Moreover, photons traveling at the speed of light do not experience time or space. Is a photon ‘everywhere all the time’ or ‘nowhere none of the time’? Our language can’t really capture the state of affairs.

One theory on why there is mass is that while we know about electro-magnetic fields and in fact a variety of different fields, there could be a field we don’t know about, called the Higgs field. The Higgs field would permeate all of reality (i.e., the space-time reality we experience) and mass would come basically because things are slowed down by that field, much as how moving through air is easier than moving through molasses. If the field exists, a particle called the Higgs particle should be produced at the energies the new accelerator can achieve.

Since I’m not a physicist, I don’t want to get too deep into the science here. Rather, for me the interesting thing it to reflect on what all this means for understanding our world. First, the more I learn about modern physics and particle physics, the more I realize that the world we experience of solid objects that operate according to precise laws is more or less an illusion. Solid matter is almost completely made up of empty space, and all laws are probabilistic. There are other weird things such as non-locality (a particle can affect another particle a long distance away instantaneously, apparently sending information faster than the speed of light, something which should be impossible) and quantum tunneling. There is a absurdly low probability my computer could suddenly tunnel through my desk — that would require the zillions of particles to all at once do the improbable thing of tunneling simultaneously. But some tunneling does occur, our sun depends on it.

So what does this all mean? Back in 1991 I bought the book The Holographic Universe by Michael Talbot, and after having read it once I put it aside. Last spring I was talking to a friend, a former student here who transferred down to Georgetown, and she noted how she took a course with Karl Pribram, the 90 year old neurosurgeon who developed the idea of seeing the brain as a hologram. That caused me to recall the book (which discusses the ideas of Pribram and physicist David Bohm extensively), and start re-reading.

I’ve never felt comfortable with the notion that “things” are “out there” as separate objects from myself. First of all, experience itself is very subjective. It is a series of sensations which I interpret into pictures, sounds, smells, tastes and touches. The only reason we believe there is something external to ourselves is because of causality and lack of volitional control over our reality. I cannot choose to fly or stay young, aging and gravity will always pull me down. If I jump out my window, the fall will cause me injury or death. Therefore, how can there not be something external to myself which limits what my mind can experience, or what I can or cannot do?

From quantum physics, however, it seems that almost everything is possible, you simply have different probabilities. Moreover, the observer seems to matter. While some hold on to the interpretation that says everything is in a state of flux until it is observed, that seems a pretty weak assumption. What is meant by observe? Why is human observation/measurement so important? While one can simply accept it and do the calculations (well, I can’t do that kind of calculation!), it’s more plausible to believe that all exists in every probability at the same time. Probabilities may depend upon the way the universe is being looked at. And that’s where the hologram theory comes in.

Like a holographic image, you can get a lot from a little, and angles matter. Pribram looked at memory, and notes that memory doesn’t seem to be located within any particular place in a brain (coincidentally, I heard a story on NPR about how catepillars retain memories when they become moths, despite having their entire system, including the brain, essentially disintegrated during metamorphisis). Bohm saw the universe as much like an information stream, which we interpret, presumably from a particular angle or perspective.

What I like about all of this is how it meshes with the kind of philosophy I’ve been leaning towards: the absolute idealism of someone like Berkeley (for whom the ‘hologram’ is projected from the mind of God), and unity of all by people like Plotinus, or the eastern philosophies. Now, believing a controversial scientific theory because it complements my pre-existing philosophical biases isn’t likely to persuade others who hold different beliefs. Yet there is something about how this kind of image conforms to my experience of reality — not just the physical experience, but my subjective/intuitional experience — that is compelling. It also is far better able to deal with things like how photons do not experience time or distance, how subatomic particles seem to break down to being nothing more than ripples in fields. All of this, combined with quantum puzzles, the space-time continuum as an entity that is unified, etc., push towards a radically different view of reality than we’ve had before.

And, if ideas are the stuff of the universe, if our material reality is a kind of illusion that at some level we create, and if there is an interconnected unity to all of existence, what does that mean for our experience of life? I know for many that’s just an irrelevant tangent, a meaningless contemplation in a world where bills must be paid, people fight wars, and it’s obvious other people are different and there are a variety of things and elements in this world which we cannot control. I’m compelled to read more, think about these issues, and try to find their relevance to my life. After all, what’s the point in living if you don’t try to contemplate what this life is all about?! And it seems to me the more I think about these things and try to learn more about them, the easier it is to find some kind of satisfaction and happiness in my day to day routine. I’m not really sure why, but looking at the world this way works for me. But I’ll keep trying to learn, and eagerly await the new insights  the LHC at CERN will present.


September 10: Terrorism and the Presidency

Many people believe that terror organizations like al qaeda would prefer to have Barack Obama win the Presidency. They think that since the Republicans are considered tougher on terror, and supported going to war with Iraq, they’d reckon with a tougher opponent should McCain win. I think that logic is flawed.

First, as I’ve noted many times, I think our invasion of Iraq was a gift to al qaeda. It took us away from taking care of the Taliban and Bin Laden in Afghanistan, and took the US into a country from which there was no terror threat. Sure, one can always imagine potential threats (maybe Saddam would have helped his al qaeda enemies against a common enemy), but that kind of thinking rests on imagination, not evidence. The reason for invading Iraq is because the neo-conservatives believed that if you created a model democracy in Iraq, it would be a pro-American base of operations and a model for political change in the region. Moreover, a quick victory in Iraq would demonstrate that the US had power and could use it decisively and with positive results.

Of course, none of that came to be. Iraq is pushing for a timetable for US withdrawal, Iran is emerging as a close ally of Iraq, and by overstretching the military and dividing the homefront, the Iraq war has proven the strategic weakness of the US in fighting this kind of conflict. Add to that the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the deteriorating conditions there, and the US has been humiliated by the difficulties of the past five years. There has been no push for change in the region and, while nominally a democracy, Iraq remains corrupt, divided, and not truly under governmental control.

America’s allies have also paid a dear price. Tony Blair’s popularity and legacy was greatly harmed by British policy in Iraq, Musharraf in Pakistan found himself increasingly under attack when Iraq spoiled his initial gamble that post 9-11 friendship with the US would be very valuable. He is now gone. And the closest US Iraq ally, Georgia, learned that the US couldn’t do much when Georgia got in a conflict with Russia. The war in Iraq has weakened the US politically, on the world stage, and diverted obscene amounts of money from places where it could have saved lives and improved conditions. America is in decline in large part because of the foreign policy errors of the past few years.

Al qaeda and its leadership want an angry, offensive, and aggressive America. I doubt they’ll get that with either McCain or Obama, but Obama is the kind of President they fear. He first of all can mend America’s image in the world simply by being elected. It would show the world that despite the problems of the last decade, the American people are not afraid to elect a black man named Barack Hussein Obama. He can parlay that notion of being someone very different, not stained with past policies, towards going a long way to rebuilding partnerships with Europe, Russia, and countries in the Mideast — countries who want a strong principled America, but resent a bully America.

That would be the worst thing that could happen to al qaeda. The US hasn’t hurt the organization much in recent years. The small group in Iraq calling itself “al qaeda” was a fringe operation, made up mostly of people who otherwise would not even have had the chance to be involved in a war against the US. The idea that somehow terrorists were drawn to Iraq and then killed by the US and its allies is absurd, and objectively false. Al qaeda has been weakened because most people in the Islamic world don’t agree with al qaeda, and don’t like it. Without the propaganda the invasion of Iraq gave them, they’d be even less popular than they are. Moreover, since the Iraq conflict has quieted down (largely due to another enemy of al qaeda, Iran), the popularity of Bin Laden has continued to decline. The Bush administration has also backed off the bluster of the first administration. Instead of sounding like the German Kaiser before WWI, Bush has sounded more like a Cold War Henry Kissinger, and Secretaries Gates and Rice have cultivated a different tone in US diplomacy. That has also hurt al qaeda’s appeal.

They most likely hope McCain is as hawkish as he sometimes sounds, and that he’ll continue to drain US revenues to increase defense spending, further weakening the US economic state. They hope the US will be boisterous on the world stage, and make the US again the country everyone resents — and laughs at when they stumble (like they have been in recent years; we’re the joke of the planet lately).

The good news is that McCain, if elected, almost certainly will not be that kind of President. Indeed, just as “only Nixon could go to China,” perhaps only McCain can go to Tehran. The geostrategic and economic realities that drive policy make it inevitable that the US cannot and will not pursue an assertive and costly policy. This truth has actually been clear since 2006, when the selection of Robert Gates as defense secretary brought the ‘realists’ back into power over the neo-conservatives. Gates and Rice are from the foreign policy establishment of old, people like Bolton, Feith, and Wolfowitz are gone. Even the surge, a project of NSA director Hadley, was built less on military strength and more on realist diplomacy. We made peace with the insurgents rather than continuing to try to defeat them, and we accepted that we could not shape the Iraqi political system or end sectarian differences. The idealism of “Iraq the model” gave way to a “let’s cut our costs” realism.

So ultimately, it may well be that no matter who wins, US policy will be similar. The change since 2006 has gone relatively unnoticed because Bush is so stained with the war and its unpopularity, while quotes and mistakes from early on are remembered and replayed. Foreign diplomats have noticed the changed tone, and have reacted positively. A new face, whether McCain or Obama, can continue this trend and make US policy more multilateral and less ambitious. McCain can perhaps get away with it easier since he has a reputation of being a hawk; Obama might be best set to signal a new kind of policy. The reality is that the US has no choice but to accept the limits of its power and need to be a partner, not just a leader.

Still, McCain appears to the outside as the one most likely to create conditions that would feed in to the kind of culture war or clash of civilizations that terrorists want. When Governor Palin says “we’re doing God’s work,” that is the kind of thing the extremists love to hear, they want it to appear the US is on a modern crusade. They want to see the US aggressive, hated, and thus continually weakened. While I don’t think McCain will give them what they want, Obama certainly won’t, and they know it.

September 8 - Georgia, Russia and America

Although the crisis involving Russia’s response to Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia has left the front pages and has officially become “yesterday’s news,” I’m keeping my eye on this issue, looking at American, European and Russian media sources.   It still remains a place where dangerous miscalculations could create a crisis.

First, it’s become known that the US trained commandos who were involved in the attack on South Ossetia, increasing the conceivability of Russian charges that the United States instigated the crisis.  Indeed, the close contact between American and Georgian militaries on all levels make it unlikely that Georgia could have planned and mounted this kind of attack without the US knowing.  And though the Bush Administration may claim they tried to warn Georgia against being too aggressive, American foreign policy does not speak with one voice.

Vice President Cheney and others loyal to the ‘neo-conservative’ view have been bested by the State Department and new leadership of the Department of Defense, Robert Gates.  But when it comes to things such as the interaction between Georgian military officials and American, it’s possible some in the Pentagon thought it would be important for Georgia to regain control of its breakaway provinces before the election.  Georgia was perhaps the most loyal ally to the US in Iraq, especially after Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in  the UK, and President Shakashvili has been stridently pro-western and pro-American.  They may have worried that a future President wouldn’t give Georgia clear support to maintain it’s territorial integrity, and perhaps were afraid that a future Russia would be better able to respond than Russia today.  They may have thought that Russia would protest, but that Georgia could have a fiat accompli, with Russia unwilling to intervene.

Moreover, unconfirmed reports suggest that, as I noted last week in “Iran: One More War?”, Israel may have been planning to use Georgia as a main staging area for an attack on Iran.  If so, then Shakashvili may have found himself going from the height of confidence — close ally with the US, part of an intense international plan to hit Iran, and gain closer cooperation with both Israel and the US — to the pits, having probably lost permanently the breakaway provinces.  Not only that, but the Russians may have disrupted plans an Israeli strike against Iran, one which French President Sarkozy calls “inevitable” in a warning to Iran.  The Russians captured and destroyed a lot of equipment when they occupied bases and airports.  We know much if not most of it was American, some if it could have been Israeli.   They almost certainly shared some of what they learned with the Iranians.  Russian actions included bases outside the breakaway territories, as well as places elsewhere in Georgia hit by Russian missiles and planes.  In fact, one could imagine Georgian military action against the provinces as a first step in what would lead to a hit against Iran.  If Russia had been slower in responding, an Israeli strike on Iran from Georgia would pull Georgia so much into a major crisis that it would be Russia compelled to avoid involvement that could spin out of control.  The neo-conservatives and Georgians may have figured that bundling the two actions would be the only way to succeed at either.

That would also explain why Georgia’s President seemed so upset by the lack of US support.  If he felt this was a kind of joint venture, then he may have thought the US would do more, either covertly or directly, to thwart Russia’s response.  Now the situation is volatile.  Russian aid is flowing into South Ossetia and Abkhazia at a rapid pace.  Russia has recognized the two provinces as independent states, and is negotiating with the self-styled leaders of each “country.”  The US meanwhile brings aid to Georgia with military vessels, something President Medvedev calls ‘a provocation,’ comparing it to a hypothetical case where Russia would use military ships to deliver hurricaine relief to the Carribean.

Russian media, while mocking Shakashvili relentlessly (and sometimes quite humorously), is convinced this was a ploy to elect John McCain President, to take Americans’ minds off the economy.  They are also strutting happily about America’s impotence to do much about the situation.  The American media, while at times becoming a bit critical of Georgia’s actions, remains firmly possessed by the Bush Administration’s narrative of ‘big bad Russia.’  The Europeans, on the other hand, are more nuanced.  They recognize that there is injustice in simply allowing Georgia to forcibly control provinces that do not want to be part of Georgia — self-determination can trump pre-existing lines on a map.  Yet they dislike Russia’s response, much as they disliked America’s actions in Iraq.  Most, though, recognize that Georgia brought this on themselves by giving Russia an easy excuse to intervene.

So what next?  First, watch for miscalculations and miscommunication.  The Russians are being very clear that any punishment the West or the US threatens or doles out is irrelevant to their policy.  They are staking out their basic sphere of influence and making it clear they will not tolerate efforts to diminish it.   The US has to recognize that there is little it can do, besides talk a good game, against Russia’s desires for South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  The fact that is now painfully becoming clear to hawks is that in this era of globalization, with the US heavily in debt and dependent on outsiders for oil, and prevention of currency collapse (due to a huge current accounts deficit), our power is not what it was.  We don’t lead a global “West,” and our military strength has been over-estimated.  As Iraq and Afghanistan show, even in “easy” wars we have severe problems both with the mission and at home.

What needs to happen is that both sides should have clear communication and make sure some provocation or mistake does start a chain of escalations which each side thinks it can keep in touch.  Second, the US has to recognize the reality of Russia’s strength in its near abroad, and abandon the idea of expanding western style governments and influence into the former states of the Soviet Union.  Only the Baltic states will shift fundamentally westward, the others will have to recognize Russia’s interests and influence.  Finally, the US has to ditch efforts to cast this as some fight against a new Russian Empire, with idiotic slogans like “we’re all Georgians now” — I’m not, not even close!  We have to get rid of that Cold War mentality (and that probably means weaning out Cold War era foreign policy elites) and move towards recognition that in an era of globalization, posturing and ideological battles are pointless and bound to fail.  We share numerous common interests, both with western states, and with authoritarian states or those with other political cultures.  I believe ultimately the values of freedom and openness will be victorious, but not with one grand US push to try to make others like itself, but slowly, over time, and in a system of stability where it’s not seen as one “side” pushing its world view on others.

Right now the Bush Administration is stuck in Cold War mode (though with mixed signals, they are hard to read, and I suspect there are internal battles going on in the Administration), McCain is completely off course, and Obama and Biden seem to fear breaking with the past Cold War mentality (Biden is a product of that era, Obama should know better — but may fear looking too inexperienced if he directly challenges that old, obsolete mentality during the campaign.)  This can be an opportunity for a change in directions, and a re-construction of a European-Russian-American partnership, albeit one less focused on ‘bringing Russia to the West,’ and instead ‘looking out for mutual interests in a complex and dangerous era.’  The US may ultimately chart a course in this new direction only after much resistance; NATO and the EU may be the players who ultimately convince us that the days of heady unipolar power and alliance leadership are over.   The times, they are a-changing.

September 6 - Obama = Palin?

I hate the fact that my blogs have gotten overwhelmingly about American electoral politics lately, since I aim to write about world affairs, culture, philosophy, science, and my own spiritual reflections.  But the blogs go where my mind is at the time, and with the political conventions and a really interesting race — one that reflects cultural change as well as the political issues of the day — lately I’ve been drawn to writing about it.

Time to step back.   It’s really easy to get drawn into the partisanship, to get angry with one side, enthralled with another side, and give in to the emotion of a political campaign.  Elections are won more on emotion than on intellectual analysis, and in a year like this where the public wants change, things are in a bit of turmoil.

One thing I’m struck by as the conventions end is the parallels between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin.  Obama was born in 1961, Palin in 1964.  Both are extremely attractive, articulate, and non-traditional.  Both lack experience, yet voters forgive that, because in a climate where change is desired, both offer something new.   Experience is not a biggie for a Presidential election anyway, witness the elections of George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

Both Obama and Palin can be viewed through partisan lenses as just more of the same dressed up in a new package.  To the right, Obama is a ‘tax and spend’ liberal who wants more big government and is naive about foreign policy.  To the left, Palin is an out of touch conservative who talks good on fiscal discipline but doesn’t deliver, is anti-choice, and has radical and dangerous social conservative views.  All the war talk at the GOP convention, which given my own background in studying German politics and history was something I found very disconcerting, fits in to the narrative of the GOP as the party willing to go to war in places far away, unnecessary for American security.

Yet those partisan perspectives, while certainly justifiable, don’t capture everything.  Obama is a pragmatist, and shows a willingness to engage in a different kind of politics, something even his style of campaigning demonstrates.  Palin fought corruption and is critized by the Alaska GOP for working too much with Democrats, and taxing oil companies too heavily.  Both politicians are somewhat of an enigma.  They can look like the old partisan image one party has of the other, but that’s in part because they have no choice — that’s the party and the game they’re now a part of.  Can they each break out of it and redefine politics for the future?  Are Palin and Obama similar agents of change, a foreshadowing of the next generation of political competition?

Palin comes off like an attack dog, while Obama seems above the fray.  Biden comes off like an attack dog, while McCain seems above the fray.  That may be less due to the individuals, but to the role they are playing — the Vice President is meant to go on the attack, and each VP candidate seems adept at doing so.   Palin and Obama are also more about the image and the narrative than the substance.  In “The Selling of the President” I noted that Obama’s marketing campaign was impressive, as he built a narrative and an operation around a candidate without much experience.  This led Jonah Goldberg to label him the first “post-modern” candidate, though one could argue Ronald Reagan had a similar sort of appeal 28 years ago.

Palin is similarly ‘post-modern.’  No one can argue that her experience as a mayor (who got her town pretty severely in debt) and a few years as Governor of Alaska give her much experience or a track record.  Indeed, it’s less than Obama’s.  But arguing about the experience of Obama vs. that of Palin is a fool’s task, since really they both are similarly inexperienced.  And arguing that one will be VP and the other President is also misguided, since a Vice President could be called on to lead at any point.   Both are there because of their narrative, and the way they can energize a new generation of voters and create a sense of change.

That is probably good.  Given how screwed up Washington has become because of the experienced politicians over the past thirty years or so, I frankly desire inexperience.  In that light, better Barack than Hillary, better Sarah than Kay Bailey.  Both McCain and Biden have narratives that put them a bit outside the mainstream of Washington politics, while still knowing and understanding the ropes.  Both tickets then are similarly balanced.  Despite the differences, there is a symmetry in this race which is compelling.

At this point, it appears still that the race is Obama’s to lose.  He has the money, he has the ground game, and he is far ahead of the Republicans in using the new media to organize.  I am on the e-mail lists of both the McCain and Obama campaigns and, well, to put it bluntly, there is no comparison.  Obama’s team knows marketing, and since most of those who get their e-mails are predisposed to like the product candidate already, it means they can get $10 million on a night when Obama is attacked.  The McCain e-mails are shrilly partisan, and obviously meant to inspire true Republicans to donate, and not to reach out and attract new voters.  The GOP will learn, and their next product candidate will certainly emulate the Obama campaign.

But while this talk of products, marketing, and selling of candidates is a bit cynical and disconcerting, I can’t help but remain relatively optimistic.  McCain-Palin vs. Obama-Biden is a good election choice.  These two tickets are both amongst the best possible for each party this year.   They may be marketing, but it appears at this point that they are marketing quality products.   You just have to choose between the Mac and the PC (this year Obama represents the Mac, McCain the PC).  That sounds glib, but it’s also a bit comforting.  Because, after all, as both McCain and Obama have stated, despite the emotional differences on some divisive issues, they have a lot more in common than they have differences — and that’s true for the partisans in Denver and St. Paul, even though many would be loathe to admit it.

September 6 - Palin blames the Media!

Bill Clinton did it when it was clear Hillary is having troubles, and now the Republicans are attacking the media for its coverage of Sarah Palin, the inexperienced and I believe flawed choice for Vice President.  Roger Simon, writing for Politico has an hilarious piece yesterday “Why the Media Should Apologize.“  A couple snippets:

“We have asked pathetic questions like: Who is Sarah Palin? What is her record? Where does she stand on the issues? And is she is qualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency?

We have asked mean questions like: How well did John McCain know her before he selected her? How well did his campaign vet her? And was she his first choice?

Bad questions. Bad media. Bad.

It is not our job to ask questions. Or it shouldn’t be. To hear from the pols at the Republican National Convention this week, our job is to endorse and support the decisions of the pols.”

And this:

“Fifth, we should stop reporting on the families of the candidates. Unless the candidates want us to.
Sarah Palin wanted the media to report on her teenage son, Track, who enlisted in the Army on Sept. 11, 2007, and soon will deploy to Iraq.  Sarah Palin did not want the media to report on her teenage daughter, Bristol, who is pregnant and unmarried.

Sarah Palin thinks that one is good for her campaign and one is not, and that the media should report only on what is good for her campaign. That is our job, and that is our duty. If that is not actually in the Constitution, it should be. (And someday may be.)”

The Republicans are falling over themselves to blame the media for attacking “poor” Sarah Palin, even though as an open mike on Peggy Noonan (a GOP insider) shows,  within the GOP there is already a lot of unease over Palin.  The fact of the matter is, when a candidate or party starts to attack the media, more often than not it’ a sign that the candidate is in trouble.  John McCain cancelled a CNN interview because a CNN journalist made a McCain spokesman look foolish when he couldn’t give any evidence that Sarah Palin had any foreign policy experience.  Such prickliness about the media is a sign of weakness.  It’s defensiveness, just as a child caught reaching into the cookie jar might suddenly lash out angrily — they realize they’re in trouble, and they don’t like it.

Clearly Palin has the support of the GOP base — the pro-life, social conservatives who hate the “ivy league” and see any government program as “socialistic.”   These folk are in a tizzy over her, and apparently (though I didn’t see it) they loved her convention speech.   Obama’s supporters have, however, contributed about $10 million in one day in their response to Palin’s speech, angered by divisive and they believe dishonest attacks.  That shows part of what McCain is up against, Obama has a wide range of strong supporters who respond to negative GOP campaigns by giving more and more to Obama — allowing him to fight back, with perhaps double or triple the financial resources as the McCain camp.  Moreover, in the grind of the campaign these tough questions will continue to be asked, and Palin’s weaknesses will continue to harm the ticket, especially with the kind of swing voters they need to win.   The hope amongst Republicans is that if they can somehow portray Palin as the victim of an unfair and perhaps sexist press, they can distract attention from Palin’s short comings and cast her as a victim.  After all, that helped Hillary turn around her campaign, and playing the victim is common fare for modern American politics.

There is something hypocritical about the Republicans doing this, especially after Palin herself criticized Hillary for whining about her treatment earlier this year.  Republicans talk, correctly I think, about personal responsibility and avoiding political correctness and a victim mentality.  At least, they talk like that when it suits them.  But here it helps them to play the victim card, and they are ready to do so, attacking the media and hoping the smokescreen stops the hard questions from continuing to be asked.  In this case, however, it is so overplayed that it lends itself to the kind of staire Simon wrote, and is unlikely to thwart the media from doing its job.

As Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan said in their now infamous open mike attack on their own VP candidate, McCain went “for the narrative,” rather than for the most competent person.  They knew the base would eat the story up, and hoped that the narrative of a ‘corruption fighting ordinary housewife turned governor’ would so appeal to the American people that her lack of experience would be overlooked.  In fact, they may have figured that the lack of experience wouldn’t become an issue since that’s the main attack being made against Obama.

Blaming the media won’t work.  It is accepted hook, line and sinker by those who already love Palin and the GOP because they want to believe the media is some liberal conspiracy against them.  But in general, blaming the media is the last refuge for someone who has ran out of arguments.  It’s a distraction.  So what will the impact of the Palin choice be?

First, despite whispers, she won’t be dumped the way Thomas Eagleton was dumped in 1972.  McCain would not be able to recover from such an admission of failure, and Obama would cruise to victory.  Even if they now might think a Kay Bailey Hutchinson or someone more experienced would be a better choice, they’re stuck with what they have.

Second, they do gain something from this choice.  The GOP base is motivated by it, as they see Palin as one of their own, especially those who were slow to embrace McCain.   This could increase donations, increase voter turnout from the base, and add some sorely needed enthusiasm and excitement to the McCain campaign.  The Democrats and Obama supporters are intensely motivated, and Obama’s ground game — the get out the vote effort and intense registration drives and community presence — could bring the Democrats a landslide in November.  Even a Republican as partisan as Tom Delay warns of such an outcome.   If this can counter that to some extent, and get churches and social conservative networks more involved, it can help McCain.  He needs that  But at what cost?

To swing voters, the Palin choice and her attacks on Obama are not as impressive.   They don’t eat up red meat rhetoric, they look to see who the best candidate is.  Obama has undergone over a year of intense scrutiny, and has managed to thrive.  He hasn’t finished the sale, his inexperience is the trait that holds some back.  But with his choice of Biden and a very successful convention, he moved in that direction.  The Palin pick, in making the McCain camp also susceptible to the inexperience weakness, makes Obama’s job there easier.  This is especially so, given that someone like McCain has a 1 in 3 chance of dying before the end of a theoretical second term, and even higher odds of some kind of incompacitation.  This also pits Obama’s judgment in his “first Presidential decision” against McCain’s, and Obama looks good.

Ultimately, though, Vice Presidential selections are of limited importance in the election.  Bentson didn’t save Dukakis, and Quayle didn’t sink Bush.  The key issue will be whether or not Obama can convince the public they can trust him in the job, and driving factors will be the economy and the unpopularity of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (note how the GOP hasn’t said word one about Afghanistan, whose worsening situation was often brought up by the Democrats).   Still, given McCain’s weaknesses going into this whole affair, this pick could ultimately become the point in which, in hindsight, the election became unwinnable for John McCain.

September 4 - Iran: One More War?

Last year and earlier this year there was intense talk of a potential conflict with Iran.  I warned that this would be a potential disaster; not only is the US militarily weakened at this point, but Iran has a number of ways it could hit back.  While the US would want to limit the attack to alleged nuclear sites, there is no guarantee that these sites could be taken out, and uncertainty on how the Iranians would react.

At this point, most people seem content in the knowledge that certainly President Bush wouldn’t start one more war on his watch.  It’s September of his last year in office, he’s a lame duck, and the usual course of action is to wait on big issues until after the new President takes office.  While this is likely what will happen, it’s possible that the Bush Administration still has one more fiasco in store.

A couple of facts:

1) Israel has made it clear that they will not tolerate Iran having nuclear weapons, and essentially said that this is a decision they have made absolutely.   The obvious implication is that if the United States does not act against Iran, Israel will — perhaps with help from Georgia, whose wreckless President Shaakashvili has already shown lack of judgment in his South Ossetia invasion, giving the Russians reason to assert their role in the region.  But the bases Israel would need to attack Iran are in the south of Georgia, and Shaakashvili, already weakened, might feel befriending Israel is no problem — especially given the knowledge that the US is of limited value as an ally.  This would make a strike against Iran feasible from an Israeli perspective, and avoid having to cross a long swathe of territory to make the hit.

2) President Bush does not want the Democrats to take power.  When Russia invaded Georgia, there was an uptick in McCain’s poll numbers.  That faded with the Democratic convention, but there is reason to think that they may make a political calculation that there is no reason to wait; the political implications of doing this as a lame duck are minor (after all, Bush is still President), and may actually help the Republicans in the fall.   I don’t think that will be a reason for doing it alone — they also know the potential downside should things go south — but it would make it easier to defend acting so late in the term.

3) The US knows that as bad as the Iranian reaction to an American attack would be, there would be a regional uprising should Israel attack.  An Israeli attack would spark action from Hezbollah, Hamas, and could wreck havoc in Iraq and other states in the region.   The Bush Administration may not want to attack Iran, but if the alternative is an Israeli attack, they may see it as ‘better we do it then they do it,’ and figure they don’t have much of a choice.  Of course, Israel could be playing a game of trying to make the US think they’ll attack to goad the US to act that way; though the two are allies, they do not have the exact same interests.

4) President Bush may think he’s doing the next President a favor.  Bush’s popularity is in the dumps, and he knows he has little to lose.  If he strikes and is successful, it might help his legacy.  If it goes bad, then at least the next President can come in with a clean slate and perhaps find a graceful way to solve the conflict, not having to be burdened with the responsibility for having started it.  Cynically, Bush might believe that Obama is likely to win, and won’t have the nerve to do “what is necessary” against Iran.  The thing about being a lame duck is that the consequences of acting are minimal.  He can harm his legacy, but he doesn’t have much else to lose.

There are numerous things working against this.  First, the military is overstretched and has war gamed out scenarios with Iran and realizes that things could get very bad.  You can bet that the Pentagon and probably Secretary Gates is highly skeptical of a strike against Iran and if ordered, would insist on a plan that they believe would have the least chance of spiraling out of control.  Second, diplomacy involves disinformation and attempts to get the other side to think a particular way.  It’s possible that Israel and the US realize that there is little they can do against Iran, but believe that if Iran believes an attack may be imminent, they migth become more cooperative.  It’s hard from the outside to read the tealeaves, to differentiate posturing from preparation for an actual battle.   Other factors include lack of UN authority, close ties between Iran and countries like China and Russia, and the inability of anyone to really help the US should things get bad.

Perhaps the most important force working against a US strike on Iran is the possible implications.  Oil prices would rise dramatically.  If it’s a short strike and Iran doesn’t respond, they may go back down.  But if Iran maintains uncertainty about a response, oil prices could stay high, and put the world economy at greater risk.  Hezbollah and Hamas could be unleashed, risking all out war in the Mideast, and Iranian backed terror groups, now quiet, could become active world wide.  Finally, recall that Iran is really behind the improved  situation in Iraq. They could turn that around on a dime, and this would undercut any Bush or McCain claims that it’s the surge causing improvement.  In a worst case scenario, things could escalate into an economic and military disaster that would damage the US immensely.

So while it’s fun to speculate about the political shows on stage in the US now, and focus on hurricaines like Gustav, Hanna and Ike, we also need to be pay attention to world affairs.  Iran could be a very dangerous and risky October (or even September) surprise.

September 3 - The Joy of Learning

This is my favorite time of the year.  Not only is summer shifting to fall, but the school year is about to begin.  I am starting my 14th year teaching at the University of Maine - Farmington, and every fall I feel the same excitement, exhilaration, and anticipation to meet new students, start new classes, and get back into the school year.   I feel extremely lucky to have a job I love.

The reason I love this job was clear to me as I listened to Elizabeth Cooke give the convocation talk to welcome new students.  She talked about learning as something we pursue our whole life, and often find insight in unusual experiences and places. I know that for me the most fulfilling aspect of life, besides my children, is to learn.  To read new ideas, to challenge my beliefs, to explore everything from the history of music to quantum mechanics to philosophy, different religions, and human psychology.

The key to learning, I believe, is to internalize one truth, and hold it as the only truth of which you can be certain: on virtually every issue involving the meaning of life, the way the world operates, and the values and principles one holds dear, it’s always possible to be wrong.  That key belief, the recognition of human fallibility and the acceptance that our perspective is simply that, a particular perspective, shaped by culture, history, friends and family, is essential if one is to continue to learn.  Without it, one can still collect more facts, but they get interpreted into a closed belief system, rigid and over time stagnant.   One stops seeking out really new and challenging knowledge, one stops being self-critical, and risks falling into a trap of seeing those who think differently as enemies, challenging the ‘true values’ that one holds dear.  That is a pitiful existence, but all to common, and all to human.

For me teaching is a profession I love because it allows me to keep learning, and to both help others learn how to learn, and then grow and learn with them.  For me it’s not a love for my discipline, political science.  If I had a real love for political science I’d have gone heavily into research, looked for jobs at research oriented schools, and focused on teaching specifically the subject of my research, and the state of knowledge in the field of political science.  In fact, my current research and teaching reflects a lack of love of political science, in that I’m critical of the discipline and its methods, and believe that there are some real problems in academia in general.

It’s not that I don’t really enjoy describing differences between European and American polities, comparing diverse analyses of foreign policy, or studying war, conflict, and cooperation.  I am especially interested in political economy and globalization, and as my blog title indicates, I feel extremely lucky to live in a time that is so interesting, full of change and uncertainty.  To live in this era is exciting enough; to be able to study, learn and teach about what this world is going through is fascinating.  I love living in this place and time, even in thinking of depressing issues.  I admit I choke up and my eyes tear very easily, I connect with the emotion of other people in talking about things like war, sex trade, and other issues.  But I would also feel like I was not truly trying to understand life if I didn’t, if I somehow put a barrier up between me and them to make it seem like people who suffer such things are mere objects.  I think sentiment and even emotion are powerful ethical motivators.

The most important part in teaching is not about content, but concerns how to think. I try help students (and myself) free our minds from constraining ideas that we might have learned in the past, especially the idea that we should simply trust authority figures — like college professors.  We need to learn when to trust the experts, and when to ask critical questions.  We need to recognize that life can be viewed from a variety of perspectives, and that the knee jerk response of some — to consider their perspective right and others either wrong or strange — is the biggest hindrance to learning and mental liberation imaginable.  One can’t do that if one doesn’t admit the possibility that ones’ own perspective may be wrong, and if one doesn’t try to understand and learn from other perspectives as well.

Despite all the horrors in this world, all the war, fighting, poverty and disease, this is truly a wonderful existence.  There is a beauty in experiencing life, learning about the world, connecting with others, and breaking out of a daily routine drilled into us by cultural expectations, the television, and our busy hectic lives.  In teaching, I find myself drawn to courses that push me — co-teaching with professors from other disciplines, delving into first year seminars and honors courses that force me to learn new concepts and methods, and thinking about what it means to be human, what life is all about.   It also leads me to believe that our academic disciplines are overly fragmented, often causing us to miss out on the connections that generate insight as we focus on one small subset of knowledge.

So the new year starts.  I can only hope that I can help awaken the curiosity and desire to learn in others the way my teachers awoke it in me.  Because to go through life on auto-pilot, locked into rigid views and unable to truly expand ones’ vision and mindset is sad.  That doesn’t mean one has to go to college; some of the most intelligent and clear thinking people I know never went to college.  They learned from life, from others, and by avoiding judging and blaming — instead they perceive and understand.  In Elizabeth Cooke’s talk she described as her teacher a man who understood nature and the artifacts he found on a Maine lake.  There are teachers and learners everywhere, not just in schools and universities.  But if we teachers do our jobs right, we’ll find that we keep learning and growing, and our students will teach and learn throughout their lives, whatever their ultimate professions.  So let the classes begin!

September 2 - Sarah Palin: A Dumb Pick

After John McCain announced the choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin I wrote a blog entry on how I thought she was a smart pick.  Given how poorly McCain looks in a race against Obama, he needed a game changer, someone who could shore up his base and maybe appeal to Hillary voters.   However, in praising his choice I made some assumptions.  First, I assumed that McCain had, like Obama, talked with his potential VPs often and with depth, and that the vetting process had been extensive.  As it stands, it appears McCain had only one short conversation with her, and that was months ago.  While the campaign says she was ‘just as vetted’ as the others, there are questions.  Was the pick done perhaps out of panic after the Democrats unified in Denver?

Second, I assumed that Palin had strong credentials as governor.  I wrote that if her judgment were sound, she didn’t need foreign policy experience.  However, unlike Obama, who has been to Harvard Law School, was the first black to head the Harvard Law Review, and who has worked with a variety of people the community before going into politics, she comes off as a light weight.  She used beauty pagents to get through college (Northern Idaho), receiving a non-descript journalism degree.  She hasn’t shown much knowledge of the world, and her main credentials seem to be that she’s a life long gun owner who believes we should drill for oil here at home.

In short, I had assumed that McCain had done his homework and was assured that there was substance behind this woman.  Now it seems he simply reacted to his February conversation with her, thinking her a ‘kindred spirit,’ perhaps charmed by an attractive young woman (you know how some men think with their….you fill in the blank).   There are more questions than answers, and McCain’s big bit about who might have power in a terror crisis seems to turn against him with Palin as his VP choice.   I had also thought that perhaps she was a model of a modern marriage; a family with a number of children while the wife holds an important job.  It turns out that her husband doesn’t seem too much into raising the kids, and they’ve relied on family a lot.  And while Obama is right to say her 17 year old daughter’s pregnancy is not something to use in the campaign, one does have to wonder what kind of values she instilled to her children.

I lean to the theory that this was a Rove inspired pick designed to mollify and energize the Republican base.   Palin would be the anti-Bush, the young face of a GOP which was growing old with the American public, an attractive woman to balance the attractive man put forth by the Democrats.  On paper it looks enticing, but the more one looks at the reality, the more problemmatic it becomes.

Alaskan newspapers question whether she’s qualified to run Alaska, let alone the country.  Cindy McCain defended her foreign policy expertise by saying that Alaska is close to Russia.  Huh?  Knowledge through osmosis because another country is close by?   Her time on city councils and as a small town mayor had controversies, and currently she’s involved in an ethics dispute involving abuse of power.  She’s untested on the ‘big stage’ where every word will be scrutinized, and every flub magnified.   Her lack of experience compared to Obama is so extreme that not only does it take experience off the table for the GOP, but makes it a legitimate point for the Democrats.

So I take back my blog entry of last Saturday, when I said Palin was a smart choice.  I had assumed things I shouldn’t have, and am shocked by what I’ve found out.  Moreover, I think one has to really question McCain’s judgment if he chose a VP on the basis of only one conversation.  It’s clear he was going from the gut, a reaction to perhaps some discussions within the campaign, without really taking the time to analyze and investigate.  I’ve earlier speculated that McCain is intellectually lazy.  This seems to prove it.  His first “Presidential” decision and he makes it on the fly, apparently without much work or thought.  Moreover, the Democrats have been able to define her first, despite the GOP convention, suggesting that the Republicans were way underprepared for what they’d encounter.  In short, it was incompetent decision making.

To be sure, she does have a kind of ‘average American’ appeal, and that part of the choice does appeal to me.  We focus so much on professional politicians and people with strong educations that there is a seductive thought: ‘what if some strong person with common sense was given the job rather than an ambitious politician?’   On the other hand, the idea that ‘creationism’ should be taught in public schools is a sure loser, even most Christians don’t deny evolution — and the Catholic Church is fine with seeing the big bang as the act of creation.  She can “refine” her positions, but still, in an election this important she’s an extreme risk.

One of the main reasons I originally considered this a smart pick was because McCain is in trouble.  After Denver, and with Gustav swamping the GOP convention on the news, he needed something dramatic.  A Republican agent of change, corruption fighting, average woman yet attractive and tough headed looked good.  And perhaps my first post will ultimately be proven correct and this retraction will be seen as the error.   Yet the more I learn, the clearer it is that this pick undercuts the strongest GOP argument against Obama.  I start to wonder if Sarah Palin won’t suffer the same fate as Thomas Eagleton in 1972 (the Democratic VP nominee who, after it came out he had been treated for depression years earlier, dropped out and was replaced by Sargent Shriver).

So my blog now contains two contradictory posts.  Sarah Palin: A Smart Pick, and Sarah Palin: A Dumb Pick.  As a blogger, I can easily change my mind once I gather more information.  For a Presidential candidate, however, the stakes are much higher.  John McCain had better hope that my first post was more on the money than my current thinking about the choice.

August 31- American Politics in transition

One of the reasons this election is so intriguing is that the United States is in the midst of a demographic and cultural change that has been taking place for decades, but has now reached a point where competing sub-cultures have similar levels of strength.  Some are on the downslide, others are rising.  Where will this lead?

Those on the ‘downslide’ are social conservatives, baby boomer ideologues (left and right) and free market libertarians.  Those on the upside are pragmatists, left-libertarians, minority groups (especially Latinos), and post-materialists (environmentalists - social progressives less concerned about economic issues).

The most tenancious about not losing their grip on power are the sixties era/boomer ideologues (people born before 1960 or so).   They learned to see the world through ideological lenses, and had a clear disinction between “good” (western democratic capitalist society) and “bad” (collectivist socialist communist society).  Yet even within that, divisions emerged reflecting strong ideological convictions.  Vietnam made it chic for many to adopt overt leftist ideology, some even championing people like Mao or communist icons like Castro and Che Gueverra, oblivious to how violent and repressive these regimes were.  They were opposing the policies of the US — which at that time were often racist, militarist, and repressive in their own way — and in a world defined by ideological polarity, they simply and often uncritically chose ‘the other side.’

That led to a mini-ideological split within the US between “left” and “right.”  Our current landscape of talk radio painting liberals as evil, activists on the left painting Republicans as a ‘white oligarchy’ (as Jon Stewart mocked it) putting wealth before justice, and the partisanship of the past few decades have been based on that ideological battle.  It has defined American politics, people choose sides, get their scripts of what to believe and argue from their side, and then simply fight the battle.  Problem solving gives way to ideological correctness, and adherents of secular religions from Ayn Rand’s silly radical capitalism to Karl Marx’s delusional utopian socialism put up the baracades and get ready for battle.

A slightly different group are the social conservatives, a kind of post-materialist movement on the right which embraced religion as the glue holding society together, and saw the ideological battles as secondary to trying to hold on to the social and religious values that defined the United States. Located mostly in the South and parts of the Midwest (though pockets of this group can be found anywhere), they were politically activized by people like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson (and more infamous folk like Jimmy Swaggert and Jimmy Baker) to support Ronald Reagan.  Reagan welcomed the support and talked a good game, but didn’t do a lot to advance their agenda.  Still, they became the fundamental base of the Republican party, and helped the GOP shift the balance of power from the Democrats to the Republicans from 1980 to 2006.  Even Bill Clinton’s Presidency was defined by a strong Republican Congress.

For awhile, the Republicans rather unrealistically dreamed of a permanent minority, but demographics were working against them, as well as culture.  First, while the social conservatives remain politically strong, the country is moving away from them.  Most people are pro-choice (even if they don’t like abortion), increasingly in favor of equality for gays, and turned off by religious moralizing.  Even among so-called evangelicals the uncompromising conservatism of the Falwells and Robertsons is giving way to more of a focus on compassion and tolerance.  Many of them could vote for Obama this year, many are moving away from a focus on single emotional issues like abortion.  That core base is getting smaller, and fragmenting.  It’s still there, but to the extent Republicans believe they have to keep it satisfied, it could start to harm rather than help the GOP.

Both parties are seeing a switch away from the ideology-driven politics of the past.  The Clinton campaign, and those “pumas” I wrote about who can’t accept Obama are the remnants of that sixties style of ‘ideological war’ as defining politics.   Groups like the ‘pumas’ get so caught up in the ideological struggle (especially those who see it as all about sexism) that the ideological principle becomes more important than the practical result.  That is typical of that era’s political activist — principle and purity over pragmatism and compromise.

Yet the public, especially the youth, are starting to see principled purity as both naive and dangerous.  Part of it is a cynicism about principles; people born since 1960, and especially after 1975, are more naturally relativist and pragmatic in their approach.  Grand theories or ideologies are distrusted in favor of problem solving and compromise.  Not only that, but the newer generations are less invested in government programs, cynical that government can provide a solution.  This means that while the previous generation found release in political causes, the new generation is either politically apathetic, or increasingly involved in practical citizen action rather than protest and ideology.  They are willing to work hard for Obama, for instance, but see heading to Washington for a mass anti-war protest to be pointless.  They may be for health care, but aren’t as uncritically accepting of more government power.

Obama is at the older end of this new generation (the baby boom officially ended in 1960, he was born in 1961), and the younger the population the more there is a shift to pragmatic post-ideological, post-materialist values.  Until now, the political leaders were from the older generation.  Obama and Palin (born 1964) represent the future of US politics.   As the Ted Kennedys and Bob Doles leave, Obama and Palin are the generation that will be making political news for the next thirty years, today’s rookie sensations.  McCain and Biden at 72 and 65 respectively represent the pre-boomer age (born in 1936 and 1942 respectively), and it’s interesting that the actual boomers — Romney, Clinton, Edwards, Huckabee, etc., were rejected by the voters.  In this election that sixties generation is absent.

Conservatives from that (boomer) generation can’t understand why connections between Obama and a church that espoused ‘black liberation theology’ or loose connections with someone from the Weather underground doesn’t automatically get everyone riled up.   But that’s so last generation.  People from the Gen-Xers on recognize that people like Obama are the ones who came after the radicals, and who mix the idealism of the past with a pragmatism and distrust of ideology of the present.  Guilt by association won’t work, especially not in as dubious of cases as this.

To be sure, plenty of people young and old are still locked in ideological jihad, and the parties are only in the early stages of moving on towards a very different kind of politics.  While Palin represents a conservative pragmatism, Obama’s is more liberal.   The differences are real, but one can imagine them working together on a variety of issues.  In that they are recapturing something the boomers lost.  Up until the early eighties the Senate and the House were very congenial places.   Pre-boomer political enemies like Jesse Helms and Ted Kennedy could like and respect each other.  Political difference was simply part of the game, not personal.  The boomers in their ideological vigor personalized it.  Someone with the “wrong” ideas was morally deficient, deserved no respect, and a subject of the ideological war.  From blogs to net discussions to the political discourse in Washington, we’ve suffered from that kind of pathology for years.

Now it is perhaps symbolic that post-boomers and pre-boomers unite.  While this will be a very ugly campaign there is nonetheless a sense that maybe after Iraq, after the Gore-Bush fight, after the Clinton impeachment, after the puma follies, and after the swiftboat smears, we might be starting to move towards a new politics.  That doesn’t mean campaigns will get nicer; again, this one is likely to be ugly.  But maybe, slowly, a sense of pragmatic problem solving will replace ideological jihad in the American political discourse.  Instead of getting emotions riled up by propagandists like Shawn Hannity, people might start talking to each other or listening to each other.  One can hope!

August 30 -Sarah Palin: A Smart Pick

A couple months ago when my colleague in the office next door, Dr. Jim Melcher — a specialist on American politics — was talking with a student about McCain’s likely VP picks.  I stuck my head in, “if he’s smart, he’ll go with Sarah Palin.”   Jim just laughed at me.  I’m going to be contrarian here.  I think it was a good pick, though also a pick that shows that John McCain knows he’s in deep trouble, and he needs to try something dramatic to change the nature of the game.

She doesn’t have foreign policy experience, but such experience is overrated.  Presidents surround themselves with advisors, and the key is to have good judgment and good people at your side.  Experience is over-rated.  John McCain is nearing his mid-seventies, has a history of cancer, and is more likely than most Presidents to either die in office, or be incapacitated for some length of time, perhaps even during a crisis.  He is saying, correctly, that it is not a risk to have someone as inexperienced as Sarah Palin in a position to take over.  He trusts her judgment.

Note, however, that this also means that the Republicans can’t attack Barack Obama for his lack of experience or foreign policy expertise.  Her experience in Alaskan politics is less than his in Illinois and national politics, yet she is qualified to be President — that’s one thing each candidate agrees on, the Vice President must be qualified to step into the role of the Presidency.  The idea that we don’t know enough about Obama, or that his resume isn’t deep enough to be President is no longer a valid Republican argument, and thus if they try to make that argument at their convention, they’ll be opening themselves up to counter attacks — such criticisms could be used to claim that John McCain lacks judgment according to Republicans because of the person he chose to be Vice President.   Democrats have to feel relieved about this.

Many have thought that this is Obama’s big weakness — why would the GOP all but take it off the table with their choice of Palin?  First, obviously, there is the attempt to close the gender gap and gain Hillary Clinton voters.   There will be a clear message: McCain is a maverick, an independent thinker, and he has a woman with real world experience and character as his running mate.  He’s betting that will look very attractive to those rural voters in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin who still aren’t sure about Obama.  Second, McCain recognizes that the force for change in the United States now is stronger than concerns about experience or foreign policy.  It is more important to be able to be a change candidate than represent safety.  After all, McCain is the ‘old rich white guy’ in the race, and in general a lot of people will see that as by definition safe when compared to a black man named Barack Hussein Obama.  He bets Palin can only help create a dynamic that this is the change ticket.  There might be a submessage “both tickets have experience plus new energy, the GOP has it the way should be, with experience at the top.”  That likely will play well next week in Minnesota.

Will it be enough to counter the extremely successful and dramatic message the Democrats gave in Denver, and now take the road?  Probably not.  Obama remains likely to have a tremendous advantage in money.  That matters.  Also, Obama’s army of volunteers to register new voters and get out the vote could provide a dramatic election day surprise, as the polls might severely underestimate Obama’s support.  The polls go on demographic traditions and likely voters.  Even if they try to compensate for Obama’s efforts, it’s possible that they’ll be off by quite a bit.  In a number of states one or two points could shift the state, and Obama could win an electoral landslide.  Finally, the number two person rarely makes a huge difference anyway.  Biden and Palin were equally brilliant choices, neither candidate hurt himself.

The Democrats need to refrain from being meanspirited in responding to Palin being chosen.  Obama is riding a wave of feel good after Denver now, and if they are seen as being petty or sexist (such as calling her, as I read over at Politico, ‘Geraldine Quayle’), that could play into Republican hands.  They need to recognize that while Palin isn’t going to be easy to attack, she also does relieve the pressure about Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience.  They need to focus on McCain, and hit back against any ‘experience’ attacks by pointing that McCain can’t think it so important, since he (rightly) put someone with little such experience a heart beat away from the Presidency.  Given McCain’s age, that’s big!

I also sense Karl Rove behind this pick.  He was apparently pushing hard against McCain choosing Lieberman or Ridge.  Rove is of the view that the only way the Republicans can win is if they not only have the social conservative base behind them, but also fired up.   Palin can do that, she can actually generate enthusiasm for McCain that might otherwise not be there.  Even if she doesn’t lure many Hillary supporters, McCain’s problem is really that Obama’s campaign has so much more energy and enthusiasm — things that translate to higher vote totals, more money and more volunteer work.   The choice of Palin does show that the McCain campaign knows its in trouble, and it has to gamble a bit to get back in the game.  I don’t think it’s enough, but it was a smart move.  Because after the drama in Denver, it was beginning to look like McCain risked becoming another Dole.

So it’s Obama-Biden vs. McCain-Palin.  We have the match up!  This should be a fun election!

August 29 - De-Clawed Pumas

When the PUMA movement formed after Barack Obama became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party, they claimed they were fighting against the injustices suffered by Hillary Clinton in the campaign.  The acronym means “Party unity my ass,” (or in more polite company they shift it to “People united means action”) and a plethora of websites started posting conspiracy theories against Obama, charges of sexism as undercutting Hillary’s campaign, and claims that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) had hijacked the party and selected a candidate they considered unqualified and weak.  They vowed to pressure the superdelegates, fight on to Denver, make a strong showing of party disunity at the Democratic National Convention and become a major political force to ‘take back’ the Democratic party.

This week in Denver, the pumas were completely, utterly and totally declawed.  They had already lost their political potency.  Their blogs became more strident, they deleted any comments that did not follow their party line (while complaining about alleged censorship from others) and increasingly delved into fantasy.  They were convinced they could shift the superdelegates to Clinton with data on Obama’s alleged weaknesses, they were convinced Obama wasn’t a real citizen (and angered/puzzled why the media didn’t pick up on the story) and slowly morphed into the internet equivalent of an inbred family out of touch with the broader world.  Once held to scrutiny by websites such as “Yes to Democracy,” it became clear the pumas lacked members, lacked money and were led by people with suspicious ties to the GOP.

This was on display in two major puma moments this week.  The first was a Daily Show appearance.  But it wasn’t a conversation with Jon Stewart, it was as subjects of a scathing comedy bit by John Oliver.  Oliver gathered some ‘pumas’ in the studio and cleverly juxtaposed their complaints that “it’s not far to call someone a racist for not supporting Obama,” to “Hillary lost because of sexism, and people didn’t support her because they are sexist.”  The obvious contradiction was lost on them.  Then Oliver consulted a child psychologist to figure out how to ‘heal’ these pumas, saying essentially that the pumas were acting like children who needed help.   On “Hardball” Chris Matthews interviewed a few who were spouting off that “Obama went to a Muslim school and was registered as a Muslim,” and “he isn’t legally qualified to be President.”  They sounded like nutcases, and when pressed by Matthews for where they were getting the information, they got angry.

Then to top it all off, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton give Obama ringing, clear and unqualified endorsements.  Even when they tried to say, “well, Hillary didn’t come out and see he is qualified,” Bill cut that off by stating that explicitly, and comparing Obama with himself 16 years ago.  Clinton himself had been the brunt of similar criticisms about his lack of experience, but that didn’t matter.

To be sure, there are many voters who supported Hillary but won’t support Obama.  There are many Republicans who can’t support McCain.  Most in each party will come around by November, but not all.   But not every Democrat for McCain is part of the “puma” movement.  The pumas are a small subset of voters who got so emotionally involved in Hillary Clinton the person that they became engulfed by a kind of ‘cult of personality’ so strong that they can’t let go even when the subject of the cult explicitly says “it’s’ not about me the person, it’s about the people who need help.” (that’s a paraphrase)

The dynamics behind the pumas are similar to the dynamics of fascism.  First, there is an emotional connection to both the ideal and more importantly to others sharing their belief.  Second, this morphs over time into the ability to create alternate realities, whereby the world literally looks different to them than to the rest of us.  Barack Obama becomes himself a caricature, an un-American child like egomaniac named Barry Sortero who was really born in Kenya, lost his citizenship when his mom moved to Indonesia, and only because of sexism was chosen by the DNC (you know that the Democrats hate equal rights for women, not like those progressive Republicans) to run for President.  They try guilt by association, and wonder why no one takes Rev. Wright or William Ayres seriously — they can’t believe that others don’t see these as major issues, even though it’s obvious that they are meaningless.

Some are resistant to reality at every level.  Over at “Hillary is 44,” they reposted her speech, but eliminated any reference to Barack Obama.   Noquarter simply mocks Obama, and on Tuesday triumphantly claimed that the Gallup poll shows Obama will lose, as McCain had a two point lead in that tracking poll.  (As of Thursday evening, when this is being written, Obama had bounced back to take a six point lead).  Hillbuzz seems to give up any pretension of being progressive, embracing McCain and Pawlenty (they claim he’s McCain’s choice), while ridiculing “Emperor Obamasotero” in the usual attempt to simply caricature and mock Obama.  The sad thing is, I think they are convinced by their rhetoric.  The Confluence simply got weird, mixing claims of persecution, media conspiracy theories, and finally a kind of “together against the world” sort of attempt to keep their emotional community in tact.  The best they can do is attack Obama’s set for his speech, ignoring that it’s pretty standard fare for politicians of both parties for such addresses.  Admitting defeat, their group left Denver early, having been ignored by most, and repudiated by the woman they claim to support.

What started as anger over losing a hotly contested race has turned for some into a long term pathology.  While most Clinton supporters have moved on, even if some have decided to vote for McCain, this group has a visceral hatred for Obama and, in a funny example of projection, see Obama’s supporters as being caught up in a cult!  They talk about Obama as being seen as the “messiah,” when by any objective measure he’s being treated much like people responded to Clinton, Reagan, or other popular candidates.   They cling to each other to bolster their emotional connection to the ’cause,’ and purge their blogs of comments that expose the contradiction between their perspective and reality.  Many of them truly believed that Hillary could still get the nomination, even though any astute political observer realized that it was impossible.

But these declawed pumas are running out of time.  Their numbers are dwindling, as people who were with them start to realize that they should be proud of the historic selection of an African American for President (even if they still would have preferred an historic selection of a woman), and that the issues at stake are bigger than any one person.  As they hear about the personal lives of Michelle and Barack Obama, as well as Joe Biden’s story, they recognize the silliness in the conspiracy theories and mocking rhetoric of the puma websites.

The “true believers” who will hold on to the end, so invested in their anti-Obama fantasies, afraid to change because it would be to give victory to those Obama supporters they’ve learned to hate and feel superior to, will find themselves alienated from the whole process.    They will fade, though websites are easy to maintain, and some will hold on to a community of readers — in the hundreds, not tens of thousands (let alone millions!).  Most will believe they were justified, but their movement became untenable so they have to focus on the reality fo the situation.   The Democrats are leaving Denver virtually united.  Yet, despite the puma irrationality, Obama still needs to convince Americans he can lead, and there will still be questions from the right that he’ll have to deal with if he wants to win the race in the fall.  But the puma movement is not only declawed, but essentially dead.

August 28 - Gustav vs. the GOP?

Hurricaine Gustav is heading into the Gulf of Mexico and is likely to make landfall in the US right about the time the Republican National Convention is getting underway. If it stays on its current track, it would make landfall around the city of New Orleans. Not only that, but Monday will be three years almost to the day that the devastation hit New Orleans with hurricaine Katrina.

On September 1, 2005 I wrote:

The first is that anyone who doubts that there is a class difference in the US which is real, and which directly affects how Americans live, need only look at New Orleans. Those who try to say ‘taxation is theft’ and consider government action to try to create true equal opportunity and equal rights as somehow a limitation of freedom are, to be blunt, objectively wrong. The wealthy — even middle class — in New Orleans were able to leave well before the storm. They may have a cash flow problem, but with credit, family, and friends they’ll have a place to stay, and they’ll get on with their lives with primarily a major headache and inconvenience. They have to deal with children who don’t understand why they aren’t home or at school, tough issues of paying off loans and bills, and the planning of rebuilding and plotting their future, but those are challenges that won’t threaten their existence or ability to move ahead.

The poor, however, often couldn’t leave the city. Many of them died primarily because they were poor. They are victims of looters, they have lost everything, they lack the insurance the wealthier could afford, and often have little to their name. They are homeless with nowhere to turn. They don’t know where their next meals will come from, their lives have been completely disrupted. Their experience of this tragedy is far more dire and difficult than those of the wealthy. New Orleans is a stark example of how having money makes a huge difference in what you experience living in America. The poverty is out in the open, it’s impact is profound. It also shows the importance of having a sense of community, and recognizing that society is more than just a number of discrete individuals bouncing off each other. (From: an earlier blog of mine at http://faculty.umf.maine.edu/~erb/septblog05.htm)

Nobody but a cold hearted partisan could want Gustav to hit New Orleans again and have anything close to the devastation of Katrina, no matter how much that might embarrass the Republicans and bring to light to issues of class, race, and government incompetence brought forth with Katrina. But three years after Katrina we still hear stories of very slow recovery, and the poor suffering disproportionately in post-Katrina New Orleans. Even if Gustav fizzles, stories like that may mark that third anniversary.

If Gustav hits anywhere with force, that will also enhance concerns about global warming, though luckily for the Republicans they have a candidate this year who can justifiably say he has been out front on that issue even when others in his party were in denial. And if news services need to choose between covering a dangerous hurricaine or the boring first day or two of a political convention, they’ll probably choose the former.

If Gustav turns a bit right, it might hit flooded areas of Florida again, which will be bad news there, and if it goes to the west then it endangers ports and oil refineries, with the potential to create dramatic increases in oil prices as the economy remains mired in a funk deeper than a lot of people predicted. In that case it will have a double political whammy in the fall, as economic troubles are more likely than not to help the candidate focused on change, Barack Obama.

Of course, things could get even worse. CNN had a show in 2005 called “We Were Warned” (back when talking about $100 a barrel oil was seen as expensive…the good old days…), where they posited a 2009 ‘Hurricaine Steve’ heading towards Houston, devastating refineries there. In their scenario, al qaeda was waiting for that kind of crisis to launch an attack in Saudi Arabia, and essentially bring the western economy to a complete standstill. Unlikely, but certainly not beyond the realm of possibility. If that were to happen, that might play into John McCain’s strengths, though I’m not sure.

One hopes that Gustav finds a way to avoid landfall, or hits with minimal force, in someplace relatively unpopulated. If it hits near New Orleans, it’ll be a good test of how well the city has recovered from
Katrina and learned its lessons. If it continues the current path, expect the weekend to have intense coverage of this (and the anniversary of Katrina) right before the GOP convention.

The main lesson of Katrina remains the stark reminder that class matters. It isn’t class warfare to note that, nor does it mean that government should go in and try to equalize things. As Gustav heads through the Gulf, hopefully those in charge on the Gulf coast have learned that lesson, and do everything possible to make sure that opportunities to evacuate or have protection are given to all so that we don’t have another embarrassing tragedy. This is a reminder that nature runs by its own rules, it doesn’t hold back because of major events, or calculate the damage it might cause.

Perhaps if it hits between the two conventions it will be a reminder that for all the hot air and promises politicians of both parties make, life is not primarily about slogans, campaign ads, or speeches. And on real life issues, neither party has a very good record to run on over the past few years.

August 27- Puzzled Hillary Haters

Posted August 27, 2008 by Scott Erb
Categories: 2008 Election, Hillary Clinton

 

Back in the 1990s as the right reeled from the fact that Bill Clinton actually won in 1992, and some on the fringes launched a mythology about him and his Presidency that gathered a life of its own. Rather than just being a superb politician from Arkansas with a hard driven intelligent wife, the Clintons were portrayed as the essence of evil, akin to an organized crime gain or mafia gathering power. How else could one explain their rise, how else could one explain why the Americans rejected the Republicans for the Clintons?

This myth gathered steam. He sold us out to the Chinese! (Note: the Clinton policy towards China was essentially the same as that of George H.W. Bush and later George W. Bush). When a family friend committed suicide, it was called a murder, ordered by Hillary to hide improprieties of a land deal (eyes rolling), and when a Treasury Secretary was killed in plane crash in Bosnia they claimed it was some nefarious plot. Everything the Clintons did was interpreted through this narrative. To these Clintonophobes the Clintons were not merely the first family, they were something like a James Bond villian, powerful and running an organization that could manipulate scenes around the world.

So when Bill left office and it was clear that Hillary had her eye on the White House, they became convinced that the deal had been made, that this would be an inside job, that nothing could stop here except, perhaps, an heroic effort by the Republican party to save the country from her — that (in their minds) evil, conniving, amoral powerful hungry she-beast. Der Rodham. And, of course, her desire to campaign ultimately on strength and experience fed into this. She was a machine, not a woman, a villian, not a human.

When Obama made his move, most of the Hillary haters chuckled. She’d make quick work of this punk from Chicago. She was the Godfather, he was some young hood in waaaay over his head. The predictions were that she’d steamroll him so fast he wouldn’t know what happened. This was her party and her nomination, how could a James Bond villian be bested by an inexperienced neophyte? The idea Obama had a chance simply showed the naivite of Democrats who somehow didn’t realize that their party was being led not by political leaders, but by cold hearted ruthless beasts.

Yet, that didn’t happen. Obama persisted. The superdelegates shifted to him. The Democrats in a close race (and if Hillary was that horrific creature the far right paint her as, she’d have been able to sway a close race) ultimately chose Obama. There remained tensions, but mostly from Hillary supporters who had gotten caught up in a kind of personality cult (ironically accusing the Obama supporters of such a cult). Bill seemed put off, but compared to say, Ted Kennedy in 1980 or Ronald Reagan in 1976, she embraced Obama like a champ. What gives?

Well, the Hillary haters figured that she was just letting Barack hang himself. Clever, this one. She would allow him to self-destruct from some scandal or mid-summer tragedy, so she could save the party and not be seen as having pushed out the black man. A scandal involving Michelle or Barack’s alledged ‘anti-Americanism’ would break on Independence day, a video tape would emerge with racist rants, or something would come up to utterly deflate the Obama candidacy before the convention in Denver. There is no way Der Rodham, the powerful she-beast, could possibly let Obama take away her candidacy.

So caught up was the right wing in this bizarre myth about the Clintons that they took it up until the convention, convinced there would be ‘blood on the convention floor’ as Hillary would pull out all the stops to get “her rightful” nomination. But last night, that myth was laid to rest, as were the fantasies of the far right that the Clintons were some kind of mafia like evil force. Hillary’s campaign had been mismanaged, stories came out, and strategic errors had been made. Obama had a plan B that allowed him to pull it off. Of course in a close campaign there were hard feelings, but Hillary recognized reality, embraced Barack Obama and gave a stunning and powerful speech for him last night. She couldn’t pressure herself onto the ticket, and didn’t try.

She’s human. She’s a politician. She’s not a beast, not der Rodham, not some kind of cold blooded powerhungry bitch from hell. She’s a hard nosed, intelligent politician whose values are those of Ted Kennedy, Barack Obama and the Democratic party. And while Hillary haters may legitimately disagree with those values, they need to let go of their fantasies about some kind of evil Clinton machine that has occupied the naive Democratic party to unleash its horrific plans. People caught up in those fantasies betray more of how their own minds work than anything about the Clintons — and its not pretty.

The Democrats have celebrated two fantastic speeches so far — Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton (though I also enjoyed Montana Governor Brian Sweitzer’s talk — even as he seemed to be channeling Louis Black). Those looking for division and rancor are finding the Democrats on the same page. This leaves the Hillary haters puzzled. Rather than realizing their view of the Clintons has been silly, they are now thinking its a plot for 2012, or there is some other angle here. No. It’s just that however good or bad the Clinton Presidency was, the kind of weird mythology some embraced about the Clintons was, in a word, silly.

August 26 - Michelle’s Moment

If anybody doubted that Michelle Obama is an asset to Barack Obama’s Presidential campaign, those doubts were laid to rest last night as she gave an amazing speech at the Democratic national convention. In fact, it got me wondering if we had the right Obama at the head of the ticket. The Obamas have a lot in common with the Clintons — Barack is the same age Bill was when he made his run in 1992, and each couple is made up of intellectual equals, complementing and supporting each other. I think the Obamas probably have a more functional family life and generally I trust them more, but as I heard Michelle give the speech of her life last night, I was reminded by how impressive Hillary was when she burst on the scene in 1992. Still, there are real differences.

In many ways, the Obama candidacy is reflective of numerous changes in our political culture in recent years, as well as areas where we still have a ways to go. It is a two career family, where the husband and wife are essentially equal; he met her when she was assigned to be a mentor to him. They are raising a family, and they made career choices based not on just ‘moving up the ladder,’ but also on supporting their family life and doing good in their community. At the same time, they’re obviously very political; there is no other way they could be where they are now if they were not.

By 2040 whites will be a minority in the country, women will be in as many powerful positions as men, and our entire culture would have undergone a major transformation during my lifetime. This is exciting to see (even as some bemoan it or try to fight the inevitable); after all Barack Obama could not have hoped to even have a chance as recently as twenty years ago. The world is different; our country is different.

While the smear dogs out there want to make hay of the fact the Obamas are black, have a “funny name,” or (whisper, whisper) don’t love America, sympathize with terrorists and radicals or are arrogant elitists, the reality of this convention is that people will realize that the core values of the country are not limited to white middle class America. Michelle Obama emphasized common values, and the concerns that drive them into politics. She also set the framework for moving beyond ideology; this is about values, not ideological battles. The generation born before 1960 tends to bracket things into political and ideological groups. They will look at people like Obama as would-be radicals, and play out the old sixties era politics in their minds, projecting that on to the campaign. And perhaps enough of that old guard are still around to win the election for McCain, especially since there are sixties era Democrats who don’t trust or understand this upstart who was only 12 years old during the Watergate era, hardly able to process what was going on in Vietnam.

The Obamas are a glimpse of the future of American politics. Win or lose in this election, they reflect a new way of reaching out to the public (new media), raising money (grassroots and web efforts), talking about politics (post-ideological) and breaking the obsolete family model of the woman as staying home without a career while the man is the breadwinner. They represent demographic trends that are putting the European-American population out of its majority role, and bringing in a more diverse demographic.

Such change is difficult. Within the Democratic party, the Clinton-Obama fight shows that the new direction of the party is fought by the old guard, caught off guard by the fundraising success and organizational prowess of new style Obama campaign. The old guard on the right sees within the post-ideological facade an ideological agenda for big government or socialism. Indeed, the old guard can’t comprehend politics outside of an ideological struggle, that’s what it was in the 20th century. If you’re not conservative you’re socialist. If you talk about the community or solving problems, you’re socialist.

I don’t buy it. We’re entering a new century, with a new approach to politics. While I do fear that Obama is far too accepting of big government, and Biden is far too tied to the American global role to undertake fundamental change, real change shouldn’t happen all at once.  Reality is forcing change, as Americans have to cope with the need to be part of a global community rather than ‘leader of the West.’  The American public is forcing a change as well. We’re undergoing a cultural transformation, and the Obamas reflect that. Last night, as Michelle talked about family, her aspirations, and how she and Barack would talk about ‘how the world should be,’ she hit on the pragmatic vision that transcends ideological boundaries and reflects why the Obama campaign became so popular.  This will be a very interesting election.

August 25 - Biden Time

OK, that was a bad pun, but I couldn’t resist it.

Back in the early/mid eighties when I worked in Washington for a Senator (a Republican Senator, as a matter of fact) Joe Biden was one of the few Senators who was friendly and talkative with Legislative aides working for other Senators. His office was right next to the office of the Senator I worked for in the Russell Senate office building, and among other things he took a strong interest in the tacos we could buy in the downstairs snack bar. I’d be carrying them up, he’d say, “oh, you’ve got tacos again, man, those look stuffed full…they let you stuff the yourself, right, that’s what you said last time…I really gotta try that, that looks better than the stuff they serve in the formal Senate dining room…” To be sure, it was always small talk, but I liked the guy.

Biden is, I believe, the perfect pick for Barack Obama. He balances the ticket by giving us an outsider with a ‘change and hope’ agenda and an insider who knows the ropes and has impeccable experience. Like Ronald Reagan’s choice of George H.W. Bush in 1980 (or even Bush the Younger’s choice of Cheney in 2000), it’s someone inexperienced but popular showing the public that he’ll have someone very experienced as his main advisor. He also is what the drudgereport calls a ‘bare knuckles fighter,’ he goes in there and attacks. Yet somehow he does so without seeming petty or undignified. This is perfect for a would be VP.

But what about his loquaciousness, his tendency for rhetorical faux pas’, which sometimes cause embarrassment? Ironically, this reputation will likely save him. “He said WHAT” will be followed by “well, that’s just Biden being Biden.” His questions during the primary about Obama’s qualifications, something now being trumped up by the McCain campaign, will be more easily brushed aside than George H.W. Bush’s primary attacks on Reagan’s qualifications and ‘voodoo economics.’ Biden can say, as he did Saturday, that after seeing him throughout the campaign and having intense conversations with him, his old worries are gone: Obama has proven himself and is ready for the job.

Obama needs to recapture the image as a post-partisan candidate, a uniter who means it, not just says it. One reason McCain’s made some inroads (though the poll happy press vastly overstates how much — its too early to take polls too seriously) is that Obama cannot fight back without appearing to fall into the partisan trap, which is just where McCain wants him. But without being able to fight back, he risks a Dukakis fate. The GOP defined Dukakis before he could define himself, putting him on the defensive. Biden can be the headline grabbing surrogate who goes after McCain and the GOP in a traditionally partisan way. Obama can remain above the fray, Presidential and as much as possible, trying to build unity. Will it work? Well, given how far this improbable campaign has come, I wouldn’t underestimate him!

Vice Presidential picks rarely make a difference in the final outcome. In 1988 Michael Dukakis chose Llyod Bentson of Texas, someone still considered one of the best VP choices in recent history. George H.W. Bush chose Dan Quayle, someone who never overcame the reputation of being a lightweight both politically and intellectually. Yet despite all that, Bush cruised to an easy victory over Dukakis. Bob Dole thought Jack Kemp would energize his campaign, but despite being a good choice, it seemed to have won Dole few if any votes.

Yet in this campaign, currently very close, what matters is the campaign dynamic. Biden is the kind of person who can help keep the dynamic or flow of the campaign in Obama’s favor, and prevent the McCain camp from defining the agenda. That might not be obvious to people watching, Biden’s role might be underlooked because it will be a subtle influence on the over all flow of the battle, not a specific event or statement that grabs headlines. And that’s what Obama needs. He defeated Clinton not by cutting her down and trouncing her, but running a relentless, disciplined and well choreographed campaign.

But while I think Biden was a good choice by Obama, I still have some concerns on foreign policy. Biden’s foreign policy expertise is impressive — very few even come close — he is an establishment figure, who has bought into the bipartisan myth that the US is a superpower with “responsibilities” which requires a global foreign policy. He isn’t likely to embrace the fundamental shift in foreign policy focus I believe necessary. However, I’m under no illusions that any President is ready to undergo such a shift. At my most hopeful, Obama and Biden will chart a path towards a true multi-lateralism and a rejection of militarism. This could put the US on a very different policy path than in the last 20 years.

Perhaps most compelling to me is Biden the man. Coming from a family constantly having financial problems, losing his wife and daughter when he became a Senator, raising his two remaining boys as a single father before getting remarried five years later, and commuting daily between Delaware and DC for his entire career, that kind of story is unique. The fact he is not wealthy helps too, he doesn’t have the problem of appearing as a silk shirt advocate for the working class.

The Obama campaign faces numerous hurdles ahead, but in his first “Presidential” decision — that of chosing a Vice Presidential nominee, he chose wisely.

August 23 - Children and War

In less than two weeks the new semester will start, and I will be part of a course, Children and War, co taught by Dr. Mellisa Clawson, Professor of Early Childhood Education, for the third time. We taught this course first as a first year seminar in 2004 (when my oldest was but one year old), then again in 2006 as an honors course.

Team teaching courses across disciplines has been one of the most rewarding things I’ve done in my career. Different disciplines have different perspectives, and when you team teach and have a conversation about issues, it’s amazing how much one can gain in exploring those perspectives. Teaching this particular course, however, has caused me to rethink the approach political science takes towards the issue of war, and in general how our minds work. For me, this may be the most rewarding and important course I’ll ever teach.

There are not words to describe how intensely emotional it is to teach about, show images of, and read about the experiences of children and their families at in a time of war when one is a new parent. For every parent grieving I thought about how I would feel, I could picture Ryan, 1 and a half by the time we taught the course, as the victim every time a young toddler was shown. In our world of distractions and entertainment, it’s easy to bracket out those victims, and act like they don’t exist, or are irrelevant but inevitable collateral damage. When one teaches the course that’s impossible. Not only do we prepare the course materials, but in class we present it, explain it, and at times each of us in talking about something emotional — say parents watching their children die — had moments when we had to either wipe tears away or even leave the room for a second.

To be sure, there was a lot of time spent on child development theories, understanding post-traumatic stress syndrome and its impact on children, plus the historical background of conflict and how political science approaches studying/understanding war. The most intense emotional moments were not the norm. But powerful emotion was always there in some form, and it was even painful to watch students, sometimes almost in shock, hear about things going on in the world that they had not imagined. We also had to read the students’ weekly papers, which often were personal and powerful themselves. Every time we teach the course it is a unique and powerful experience.

If it was just the human emotion, that would be one thing. More important to me was the way that emotion influenced both students and myself. First, students, even conservative students who supported the war in Iraq, became far more sensitive to the human cost of war, and broke them out of our societal tendency to think of all these things in abstractions. Second, the students involved in the 2004 course also became more active in student organizations on campus, especially those involving children. They could not simply ‘get over’ the power of the course, they felt a need to try to do something. Finally, it became very clear to me that there is a real gap in how we in political science study war.

First, children are hardly ever considered as a variable. While every scholar of conflict will say, “yeah, that’s sad and tragic,” they’ll note that the children are simply victims of the war, and thus not a subject of study. There may be side studies on refugees or child soldiers, but these are ‘niche’ areas of research. There are two problems with this. First, children are the next generation, the impact of war on a generation of children surrounded by violence that intense has to be severe. Stopping cycles of war and violence need to take that into account. The second point is more subtle but I think more important. We study war as an abstract, sanitized concept, with sentiment something to avoid. One can give academic papers without regard to the actually suffering being discussed, this is academia after all. Sentiment can only cloud clear, logical thinking.

Yet leaving emotion out has a similar effect. If one can bracket out the intense human suffering caused by military conflict, then it becomes far easier to simply use economic interests, strategic concerns, or ideological causes as being enough to rationalize risking war. The cost benefit analysis doesn’t really take into account the suffering caused, especially when that suffering can often be further bracketed out by a cold and I’d say heartless “we do all we can not to target innocent civilians,” as if that washes ones’ hands of damage done. By not letting sentiment be a part of the whole analysis, our policy schools, foreign policy bureaucracies, and universities leave out the most tragic part of the analysis.

One might object that this isn’t the case — we know it’s tragic, we know people die, it’s just not relevant to analyzing the causes and consequences of war. But do we really know? How many people see the images and hear the stories of the depth of suffering. It’s well known that the US media self-censors such images stories, not so much because of government pressure but the public doesn’t like to see and hear them. People can easily avoid even learning about depleted uranium shells, landmines, or innocent children shot at security points because the soldiers thought a car ’suspicious.’ We are safe, we protect ourselves from grappling with the reality. And how can one understand the consequences by looking at humans as statistics. A world view absent sentiment abstracts one to a statistic.

I certainly understand why we leave sentiment out. Emotion does often lead one away from a clear analysis. Fascism was built on such emotion, so are groups like al qaeda. Negative campaign ads use emotion to turn people against candidates, often in irrational ways. So the idea that it has to be considered opens a complex set of problems, which I’m only starting to work through. Teaching this class again will be part of that continuing process.

Emotion, like rationality, can be bad or good. An evil genius uses rational calculus to do horrific deads, someone dealing with a crisis might be unable to operate if they can’t subdue their emotions. Emotion leads to road rage, it leads one to save a drowning child. In life we all seek a sense of balance. I don’t think we can understand and truly appreciate the ethical issues around war without a similar sense of balance. My personal challenge in my future research and academic career is to figure out how to do that. If not for the emotional experience of that course, I would not have the desire to approach this issue, since it seems outside the ‘norm’ in political science. But that’s the power of emotion — it drives life choices. People can’t diet, give up smoking, give up drinking or anything like that if they just decide in their head it’s the thing to do. Only if it’s from the heart — their children are at risk, they might die if obese, etc., — do people act. It can’t simply be bracketed out of social science.

 

August 22 - A New Cold War?

Here’s a quote from Secretary Rice. Do you think “Russia” could be replaced by “The United States” in the quote, and have it still ring true?:

Russia is a state that is unfortunately using the one tool that it has always used whenever it wishes to deliver a message and that’s its military power. That’s not the way to deal in the 21st century.

While the hypocrisy our leaders offer in response to the Russian action continues to annoy me, it’s important not to let that lead to justifications or rationalizations of the Russian action. Moreover, comparing blogs and media commentary, it’s clear that Russians and Americans both tend to have a knee jerk “my side is good, the other side bad” reaction, something which can explain the hypocrisy both sides show when attacking the other side. Still, in all this clamor the big question remains: are we facing a new Cold War?

The answer is no, but that might not be as good news as it sounds. The Cold War represented an era in world politics where: a) fights were about ideology; b) the world had a clear bi-polar structure in terms of power politics; and c) nation-states remained dominant units of economic and political power. Since then fights have become more about territory, ethnicity and religion, the world has morphed from bipolarity, briefly to unipolarity, and now multipolarity, and nation-states no longer control the fundamental driving forces of their economic and even political health. This is true for Russia and the US too, even if they don’t feel the trend as strongly as others (yet).

The bad news is that such a multipolar world with multiple potential points of conflict consisting of states which do not control the variables leaves open the chance of unexpected crisis and misperception. The danger is, as I noted last week, that a crisis like Sarajevo in 1914 could unleash a series of events that ultimately leads to conflict, even nuclear war. This shouldn’t happen, it’s in no ones’ interest for it to happen, and unlike 1914 we don’t have publics itching for war. But it’s a more perilous situation in many ways than the old Cold War, where the two actors knew each other and could keep events reasonably in their grasp.

So what exactly is going on with Russia? I believe that after two decades of humiliation after humiliation at the hands of the US, Russia is determined to secure it’s place in the international system. They’ve learned that if they go along with the US or give only mild criticisms, they get rolled. NATO expanded, NATO went into Kosovo, the US invaded Iraq. Russian interests are seen as secondary; the country has been viewed, correctly, as weak and in dissarray. Now they are looking to turn things around.

First, they now have a competent, if also far too corrupt, government. Russians associate western style democracy with the horrible Yeltsin years, and prefer the stability Putin’s rule has brought, even if it has meant a sacrifice of freedom and democracy. Second, they have large oil revenues, and given how this current crisis and boisterous threats from Russia has caused oil prices to shoot up, it could be that they in part want to make sure oil stays expensive so they continue to reap high profits (cynically one could imagine Iran and Russia taking turns racheting up tensions to keep oil prices high!) With the US militarily overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US economy reeling, they realized that the US has been overestimating its power and isn’t in a position to do much against Russia.

But what about talk now of quicker movement for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO, and a missile defense system in Poland which seems to have really angered the Russians? Don’t read too much into the rhetoric. Vladimir Putin may be a lot of things, but he’s not stupid. He and the Russian elite know that NATO will expand, and that the missile defense system in Poland the Czech Republic was all but a done deal. There is nothing Russia can do about those things, and Putin knows it. Moreover, Russia has no desire to try to reclaim the “Russian Empire” as McCain puts it, or develop a true confrontation with the West.

As boisterous as Russian rhetoric may sound, they know their limits — and the limits of American reach. Russia has a severely weakened military, and how their only trump card — possession of massive amounts of nuclear weapons — is of limited value. The West fears war with Russia because it could escalate out of control. But Russia fears such a war too. During the Cold War the USSR dominated European conventional forces; now they are a shadow of what they used to be. That strategic reality is understood by all players.

So why Georgia? Since it was clear last April that the question was not so much if but when Georgia would enter NATO, and that the sticking point was the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions, Russia had a window of opportunity to provide NATO with a fiat accompli before expansion. They knew that since these regions were already outside Georgian control, and had a population loyal to Russia, they had a good rationale for their incursion. It was a limited, brilliantly executed, operation. They now can assure that when NATO does expand, the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia will require Russian approval for settlement. Russia may not annex these territories, but they will enjoy autonomy from Georgian control, and probably on going peacekeeping including Russians — at least until relationships alter to the point that all sides freely choose a different path.

Moreover, NATO advisors were on the ground, and NATO watched Russia war game this scenario last month. I do not believe the Russian incursion was as much as a shock as the Bush Administration claims. The US is not about to slam the door on Russia, and Putin and President Medevdev are not about to scrap their progressive agenda. They are more like the progressive Czars of old, Peter I or Katherine the Great. But even those pro-West reformers were also authoritarian and wanted to make sure reform did not get out of hand (and their successors usually were reactionary because they thought it had). They want ties with the western and world economy.

Finally, the world is now multipolar, and Russia is playing a game that includes the EU, China, Iran, and other states that have regional economic or political weight. Unlike the Cold War, the US can’t rely on Western Europe simply following its lead, and this gives Russia room to maneuver, especially with Europe dependent on Russian natural gas and oil. So, as long as neither Russia nor the US gets in a position where they feel like they have to assert their power too much, I would expect neither a Cold War, nor a breakdown in relations. Yet one question troubles me a bit. In many ways this is like 19th century Realpolitik, and one can understand and analyze the way the actors are positioning themselves and strategizing. Yet unlike the 19th century, we have real globalization and economics has integrated economies far more than ever before. This should be a good thing — a war would hurt everyone — but if we end up fighting over oil and other resources it could lead to some dangerous brinksmanship ahead.

August 20 -College Drinking

Recently the fact that college Presidents from over 100 colleges and universities have called for the lowering of the drinking age to 18 to reduce binge drinking has caused a stir. How, some ask, does making it easier to get alcohol reduce drinking? Why would college Presidents be making this argument?

Before getting into that, let me make my position clear. 18 year olds can be sent to Iraq to kill and die, they can vote on who can be the next President. Yet they can’t order a beer with their meal at Applebee’s? Morally, the 21 year old drinking age makes no sense. Practically, the law itself is not the cause of binge drinking, the cause is the culture that brought forth the law. Therefore, changing the law is just a first step.

My colleague Steve Pane, Professor of Music, tells a little joke to students before our trips to Italy. You go to Italy at noon, and American tourists see Italians drinking wine with their lunch. They shake their head, appalled by this early drinking. Yet at midnight it is these same Italians helping those same Americans, now inebriated, find their hotels. The Italians know balance, the Americans go to extremes. That’s the culture we have, and it’s exacerbated by not only the high drinking age, but the conflicting messages that come from our media, teachers and government: alcohol and drinking are bad and unhealthy vs. alcohol is fun, normal, and really cool.

The problem with the 21 year old drinking age is that colleges are unable to teach and support moderate and responsible use of alcohol. On our travel courses to Italy, where the drinking age is only 16, students at the end of the day can go out, have wine with dinner, and potentially go to night clubs and party.  They could take this to an extreme and go out of control.  They very rarely do. We try to convince them that if they are to drink they should do it like the Italians, in moderation, as part of the culture, not with simply a desire to ‘get drunk.’ Indeed, apart from Americans and soccer fans in Europe, the idea that one drinks to get drunk is a bit strange. One drinks along with social activities or food, as part of the whole experience.

So we tell students that they are in Italy for only a couple weeks, and that they need to make the most of the experience, as rare and expensive as it is. They can go party any time back home, or go on some wild spring break if they wish for that kind of experience. But here it would be a waste of their money and time to ignore and miss the unique aspects of Italy in order to do something they can do at home anyway. It works (that and the fact our schedule requires everyone up and moving by 7:30), and rarely do we have a problem.

In colleges though, it’s either face reprimands and penalties, perhaps being kicked off campus, or avoid alcohol all together. There is no balance. If there were a campus pub, for instance, a lot of people otherwise drawn to heavy and dangerous drinking parties would choose that safer alternative. You’d still have those hard core parties, and there would still be problems like women being harrassed or worse, and people getting alcohol poisoning. But they would be fewer, and staff at a campus pub would be trained to notice dangerous situations. Some worry that this could cause more drinking; people now who are smart enough to avoid dangerous situations might be lured by the ease of the pub to drink and potentially develop problems. I doubt it. The cultural message is strong enough that those who now do not drink probably would not even if the drinking age was lower. Culture trumps laws, especially laws rarely enforced and generally disrespected.

I was talking with the father of one of my son’s friends the other day, and he had been reading an article about managing “millennials, or children now coming of age and into the work force. He said that the article noted that millennials tend to be less self-motivated than baby boomers or gen-Xers, and need more specific guidance and oversight. I’ve noted too how now more than ever students look for a ‘formula’ on how to ‘get the A’ (or for less ambitious, how to at least pass). How many pages? How many sources? What exactly should the paper format be? What precisely is the rubric?

In recent years this pre-occupation with ‘what I need to do to get the grade’ has caused me to rebel a bit, giving less guidance to force them to make these calls on their own (while re-assuring them they can redo it if they fall short). It makes sense, though, when I look at how our society has changed. It’s not just the drinking age, it’s laws on smoking, seatbelts, safety laws, and numerous regulations and laws on the books across the country all designed to create regulations to make sure we do safe things and treat other people with respect. While the motivation for such laws may be good, the impact has a dangerous side effect. When choices are made by authority, and behavior is constrained by a very strict set of rules, people learn to simply look to the rule book rather than learn how to make good choices.

In life, however, there are constant temptations to break the rules. If one does not have the skill to make good choices, then it’s more likely that once freed of the constraints of a clear set of rules, one can go overboard. The mix of freedom and responsibility is better though of as freedom and good decision making, then freedom and respect for authority. College drinking is an example; rather than being able to help students develop good decision making skills, we enforce a rule designed to protect them. In so doing, we may not only fail to protect them from dangerous behaviors, but we might also fail in our responsibility to teach them good decision making skills going forward.

Quick VP Predictions

As of 6:20 PM, EDT August 19th (remember the blog time is GMT, now 10:20) I predict the two candidates will pick the men they are most comfortable with.

Obama-Daschle
McCain-Lieberman

August 19 - Dreams

Away from the world of politics and foreign policy for a moment, and into the world of dreams!

Last night I had a series of dreams in which I knew I was dreaming. These are fun. Once you know you are dreaming you can try to manipulate your dream, run little dream experiments, and sometimes just play. Back in the late eighties and early nineties I journaled over 1000 dreams I had, about 10% so-called “lucid” dreams, the term given to dreams in which you realize you’re dreaming. I think that experience has done a lot to shape my view on a variety of issues.

For instance, there’s the case of the dogs. Early on in my lucid dreams I would suddenly find a pack of dogs is chasing me. I’d run, they’d be catching up, and since I knew I was dreaming, I knew if I woke myself up they’d be gone. So I’d will myself awake, and the dogs would of course vanish. Yet the waking me would be mad at my dream self for ending the dream. It’s only a dream, after all, the dogs are not real. Yet the dreams recurred, and grew more frequent. At one point I was running, thinking about waking myself up, but then decided to stop and face the dogs, hurling my hand towards them as an offering. One dog leaped and bit my arm off from the elbow down. It hurt. Not a lot, but there was a pain sensation. Suddenly all the mad dogs were laying placidly and my hand and arm were back to normal. The dogs stopped bothering me after that.

There’s also the flying problem. I have flown many times in dreams, but in lucid dreams I could not will myself into flight. That frustrated me. I’d scream “aloud” in my dream, “this is my dream, damnit, I should be able to fly!” My solution came, ironically, from the book “A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.” In that book the author said the way people learned to fly was to fall backwards and just fall into flight. I tried it. It worked! It got to the point that I stopped even having to do that, I could just take off into flight like superman. I couldn’t always control it, I’d sometimes just keep going higher and away from my ‘dreamscape,’ but I could fly.

Some things found dreams to be no help. I thought perhaps in dreams I could find the answer to the deepest questions: why are we here, what’s the nature of reality, this world, my soul. But ask as I would, my dream characters really didn’t give me any answers. I would sometimes fly up and as far away from my dreamscape as possible, into a region where I felt disembodied, with only sparkles of light and little color. I’d sometimes get a sense of fear, that I was venturing too far out, and then I’d pull myself back. But when I kept going, I ended up simply waking up. One thing I couldn’t do was a real out of body experience. I’d be in bed, know I was in bed and starting to dream, and then try to get up out of bed, or lift myself from my body. I could, but only as the dream ’solidified,’ and then when I looked down, my body wasn’t there. I wasn’t out of my body, just dreaming.

So what did I get from all this? First, the dog experience suggested to me a need to confront fears rather than flee them. It’s pretty obvious, in fact! But still, the lesson seemed so real to me, that I think I changed. The flying problem taught me something about dreams. In ones’ dream world, one is limited not by the will of the dreamer, but by doubts and uncertainties that one has. I still have trouble walking through walls, and only a few times dived into the ground as if it were water. My mind doesn’t completely accept that this is possible, even though the lucid dreamer knows it is. Perhaps that’s true in life too, our own doubts and uncertainties, often beneath the surface of our conscience, hold us down.

On larger existential issues, it would always occur to me on waking that I have gone not from a fantasy to the real world, but from one world to a different one. The dream world is real while I’m there — as real as this world. I experience taste, color, substance, and pain. Pain and taste are the only experiences truly bland, colors are vibrant. It runs differently than this world, I can do things I can’t do here, and the dream world lacks the coherence of waking reality. Perhaps this reality is akin to a shared dream, where our collective minds create limitations and “rules of the game” that don’t exist in my ‘individual’ dream. I don’t know.

what then is reality? Waking reality, as we know is relatively empty. The space between subatomic particles, which are merely probabilistic ripples in fields anyway, is huge compared to the size of the ‘particles.’ Especially as I learn more about quantum physics and the nature of our physical world, I wonder if the difference between this experience and the dream experience is as stark as it seems. One is real, the other fantasy. Or are both real, or both a kind of fantasy?

Enough playful speculation for a rainy Tuesday morning. I have a chapter on German foreign policy to finish up, and a semester soon to begin. Pleasant dreams, everyone!

August 18 - Credit Iran, not the ‘Surge’

American officials have been stun by the demands from the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki to have a timetable for withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, and his refusal to go along with a long term American presence. The working assumption by the US was that the Iraqi government would need and want American support, even if they couldn’t appear too eager. Not only would this assure the Iraqi government could have a strong force to counter resistance, but American money would continue to flow into Iraq, helping enrich a lot of people with close ties to the government.

However, the US is not popular amongst the Iraqi people, and often tries to overtly impact Iraqi politics. Maliki himself is in power because the US did not want al-Jaafari, his predecessor, to keep that role, even though he was chosen by the victors in Iraq’s elections. For months there was a lack of a clear government as the Iraqis and the US tussled over the issue, with Maliki finally chosen as a compromise. Think of the message this sends Maliki: if you want to stay Prime Minister, you shouldn’t do things that make it difficult for us to pursue our goals in Iraq. Maliki could take this two ways — either to say, “gee, America has the power and can use it, I’ll watch myself,” or “as long as the US is here, I’m vulnerable.”

Apparently he’s taken the latter approach, and is presenting himself as an anti-occupation nationalist who is willing to tell the Americans to go home, and even be seen as embracing Barack Obama’s Iraq plan. American officials seem to think he may be overestimating his power, but recognize that within the Iraqi government he has created a pretty strong power base. He won’t be as easy to remove as Jaafari was, if the Americans were to try. Moreover, strategically the US is no longer in a position to make such demands. One of the key reasons may be Iran.

A lot of people credited the “surge” with making life in Iraq better in 2007. Yet the primary reason things got better were: a) the US stopped fighting the Sunni insurgents and instead made peace with them to narrow the focus to al qaeda; and b) Moqtada al Sadr refused to directly confront the US and Iraqi forces, and instead appeared to acquiesce to Maliki in Basra. The only thing that can explain “b” is that Iran is the puppetmaster here. al-Sadr has spent a lot of time in Iran, and the Iranians probably are his insurance against being eliminated as a political force.

Consider the following scenario. It’s well known that Iraqi Shi’ites and the government have not been overly happy with US policy towards the Sunni tribes. They have not disarmed them, and in some cases have given them arms and aid in order to ‘fight al qaeda.’ Al qaeda, however, is not a strong force in Iraq. It came after the US invasion, has always been rather small, and overly brutal. The Sunnis tolerated them as long as the fight was against the US and the Shi’ites, but when the US stopped trying to defeat Sunni insurgents, they found it useful to help the US against al qaeda; al qaeda was unpopular anyway. They also saw that the US meant business when it was telling the Shi’ite government that it had to share oil revenues with the Sunnis and bring Sunni militias into the Iraqi military.

The Iraqi government hated these developments. They’d been held down by the Sunni minority for so long, and it now appeared that the US was helping the Sunni tribes remain well armed and outside the reach of Iraq’s central government (most Sunni areas are controlled by Sunni tribal forces), and were now siding with the Sunnis over fights about Iraq’s economy and political settlement. There is a lot of corruption in Iraq, and government officials knew that opening this to the Sunnis would not only threaten revenue sources, but could open a path for Sunnis to grab a chunk of power.

What if the Iranians came to the rescue? What if they told Maliki “you don’t need the Americans, we’ll make sure you have the capacity to secure the region. We’ll make sure that al Sadr is not a thorn in your side, and help your government gain control of the Shi’ite regions in Iraq. The price is that you do not allow the Americans to use Iraq as a permanent base, and instead you demand they leave relatively quickly.”

Maliki’s calculation would be simple. The US is disliked by the Iraq people, the American public is divided by the war, and for the most part wants the US out of Iraq, and America is pressuring the government to help their Sunni rivals. Moreover, Americans are complaining about Iraq oil revenues and budget surpluses. How much more can the US really do for Maliki? It might even force him out like it did Jaafari, or weaken him politically by making him look like a lackey for the West. But Iran is next door, fellow Shi’ites, and despite the Arab-Persian rivalry, Iran housed and helped most of the Iraqi parties in government during Saddam’s rule. Iran is their natural partner. Iran will be there and can provide more than the Americans can. Most importantly, Iraq knows that despite Iran’s power, Iraq has partners in the Arab world that can help assure that Iran cannot dominate Iraq. The US has shown a desire to try to get the results it wants in Iraq, from election systems, to particular laws (’benchmarks’) and naming the Prime Minister.

So while McCain and Bush take credit for the ’surge,’ Iraq is quickly trying to get the US to leave, and appears to have a closer relationship with ever with Iran, a country which continues to thumb its nose at the West on nuclear research.

It would all be rather comical, just how much the US spent in order to lose so much in Iraq. The US lost prestige, is no longer feared, is finding Afghanistan in disintegration, has massive budget deficits, a weakened economy, is divided politically, and appears almost a paper tiger, unable to finish the two wars it started. The irony of ironies is that even in Iraq, where they are trying to claim some success (though that’s a dubious argument even if their premise that the surge worked were true), it may really be that the country’s arch-rival Iran has benefited most from US policies. Not just Iran, but the hardliners in Iran have gained the most! Meanwhile, Islamic extremism has been on the rise, and terrorist groups relatively ignored.

However the deaths are real. There are numerous orphans, widows, and destroyed families and villages in Iraq, where children will never have a normal life, having been surrounded by war and violence, and people will be scared physically and spiritually for decades. There are American families who have lost loved ones, divorces caused by the psychological toll of numerous deployments and the horror of war, and veterans who also will never live a normal life due to what they experienced. All this because policy makers engaged in hubris, overestimated the benefits of military power, and underestimated the heavy price it would cost.

August 17 - Hillary Clinton’s hour

It seems I’m in a zone of talking electoral politics the past few days. I’ll snap out of it soon. Today will be a short one.

The media seems to be full of commentary that Obama has “blinked” and given in to Hillary Clinton to allow her not only to speak at the convention, but have a major prime time role, and roll call vote. To many, Obama is risking letting her take center stage.

I have no idea how anyone can think a campaign that was so disciplined and successful to this point would really make such an error in judgment. Hillary and Bill will speak in a way that will not only urge her delegates to vote for Obama (many would anyway) but give passionate support for Obama’s Presidency. The reason is simple: if Hillary is to have any chance to run as the Democratic nominee in 2012 she has to both distance herself from the anti-Obama ‘puma’ folk who have gone into full groupthink mode and seem to have lost touch with reality, and she has to erase any impression that she in any way, shape or form hindered an Obama victory. If people blame her and her supporters for a potential Obama defeat, she’ll have no chance four years from now. Of course, that’s for the cynical. It’s probably the case that she wants Obama to defeat McCain and have a Democratic majority, so as a Senate leader she can craft historic legislative accomplishments.

So expect Hillary and Bill to be talking about Obama, in a way that is passionate, and will have Obama’s supporters screaming approval. Expect Hillary to urge all her delegates to vote for Obama, and give the Republicans a strong message. Expect the hopes of some for some kind of divided and bitter conference to be completely dashed. If Hillary can pull this off, she’ll erase lingering doubts that a lot of people have concerning her trustworthiness in supporting Obama and having it not be “all about her.” Bill Clinton also has a chance to regain his position as a party statesman, an ex-President the Democrats can be proud of. His reputation is now tarnished, a strong performance in favor of Obama will go far to redeem him.

There is no way Hillary can gain the nomination. Obama’s raised a lot of money, she’s in debt, and Obama has an army of committed volunteers ready to fight in the fall. If all this got turned around by insider “super delegates,” the Democratic party would collapse. The party leaders know that, they won’t let that happen. More importantly, Hillary knows that. If she really had wanted to fight it out in Denver, she’d not have ceased her campaign and called so aggressively for unity.

So expect a lovefest between Obama and the Clintons. They may not mean it, but it will not only go far to undo the bitterness of the campaign, but help Hillary and Bill recover from the beatings their reputation took towards the end of the campaign. It’s Hillary’s hour, moreso if she gifts it to Obama.

August 16 -Obama the Antichrist?

A friend of mine from high school once told me that he thought Ronald Reagan was the anti-Christ. Ronald Wilson Reagan has six letters each for his first, middle and last name — 666. He was charismatic, used religion, and people feared he wanted war. Of course, he ultimately made a peaceful end of the Cold War more likely by working with Gorbachev, even as hawks in his administration warned him not to, and died back in 2004 without causing the end of the world.

Back in 1988 I was working on a paper for a seminar in grad school comparing Charles De Gaulle and Napoleon III of France. At the University of Minnesota library I found a book published in 1860 (Napoleon III ruled from 1848 - 1870) that made a powerful case for seeing Louis Napoleon (Nap III’s real name) as the Antichrist. Everything from 666 to a myriad of prophecies were laid out, and Louis Napoleon filled all of them. The nephew of the famous Napoleon I, however, turned out not to be so dangerous. While Napoleon I conquered virtually all of Europe before he met his Waterloo, Napoleon III was so repulsed by the site of blood that in 1860 he ended a war with Austria, started to help Piedmont unify Italy, early in the fighting. Ten years later in 1870 Napoleon III surrendered quickly to Prussia in the Franco-Prussian war, ending his rule. The end of the world would have to wait.

John, writing on the island of Patmos during Nero’s reign (around 68 AD), had an obvious target: Nero and the Roman empire. This probably wasn’t the same John who wrote the gospel, though church traditions differ on that. All of the prophecies, including the number 666 describe Nero and Rome. In fact, Nero in Hebrew comes out to 666, in Latin it’s 616, and both numbers can be found in different translations of the book of Revelation. One has to wonder if the writer could fathom that his vitriol against Rome would inspire political websites as such “Barack Obama the Anti-Christ?” A John McCain ad tongue in cheek uses Obama’s quotes and visuals to arguably hint at similarities between Obama and the Antichrist. Most people will see it as criticizing Obama’s alleged arrogance, but to Christian extremists the message will be clear: there could be something Satanic about Obama.

When I was about 13 or 14 years old, visiting my Grandma in Mankato Minnesota, I was bored. She lived downtown right on Front Street (her old building no longer stands, it’s part of a mall — to people who know Mankato, it was above a store I believe called Fisher’s, which I think sold men’s clothing). So I easily could go to various stores, and at a one large store I can still picture (sort of a general store, a pre-Walmart discount place) I found a book called The Late Great Planet Earth by Hal Lindsey. I devoured that book, became convinced that the end of the world was near, and watched as well for signs of some coming destruction. I grew out of that within a year (and now that I’m a scholar specializing in Europe I realize how insane some of his claims about the then EC (now EU) — the future home of the Antichrist, in his opinion — actually were), but I recall the kind of excitement and sense of destiny that a belief that one is leaving in a time of cataclysmic and historic change brings.

Obviously, I consider all this “antichrist” talk silly. Martin Luther in the days of the reformation considered the Pope the antichrist, but not because he expected the world to end, only because he thought the Church immoral in saying people had to go through the Church to connect with God. Not believing any particular religious tradition, I dismiss all this all as absurd on its face. Frankly, I don’t believe there is a Christ or an anti-Christ (though I thoroughly respect and admire the moral teachings of Jesus, as well as other great moral/spiritual teachers, like the Buddha, Gandhi, Mohammad, etc.) However, I find the way people grab on to these end of the world myths as fascinating.

End of the world myths and cults have been common throughout history. Near the millenium (1000) people were so convinced the world was about to end that many sold their land and possessions and waited — only to be very disappointed. The idea one is living in tumultuous and historic times is intriguing. Look at the subheading of my blog — I clearly am not totally over the kind of thinking that led me to obsess on these issues in my early teen years. My belief that these are “times of crisis and transformation” could be a secular manifestation of the way some religious folk grab on to end of the world myths. We all want to have excitement and thrill in our lives; some get it through extreme sports, through various personal risk taking and the like. Others get it through work, family, or maybe current events.

But it’s very easy to go from that excitement to actually seeing others as evil, or the self as good. Islam for some and the West for others is a scourge that must be eradicated. This kind of thinking fed the Nazi antipathy for the Jews, Pol Pot’s desire to eliminate foreign and western influences, and many of the world’s atrocities. Getting caught up in myths makes it possible to rationalize the otherwise irrational, to shape ones’ world view in ways that make evil seem right, and right seem wrong. Mythic thinking can be secular or religious, and at its most powerful it is seen as simply being truth, the way things are.

There are many Obama supporters caught up in a myth that Obama is larger than life, and will bring radical change. Not likely. He is a politician working in a system that is not under the control of any President. The leader makes a difference, but is severely constrained. Others, both the anti-Obama “puma” types and the radical right, see Obama as this kind of evil entity who is unwarranted to be in a position to become President. It may be a mix of race, youth, inexperience or a foreign sounding name, but it comes together in a way which sees Obama as something dangerous and even evil. In fact, it seems that when Obama supporters talk to these types, especially the few “pumas” out there, the anti-Obama people accuse them of having Obama as their “messiah.” They clearly see this all in mythical terms.

Wake up call. Obama isn’t the anti-Christ. Obama and McCain are both decent men it seems, with different positions. Both will rely on advisors most people would not recognize to make big calls, both are part of a system which limits what they can do as President. It’s not good vs. evil, it’s not the end of the world either way. When people start finding themselves getting caught up in the kind of larger than life mythology of any sort, pro or con on any candidate, it’s time to go out, take a walk, avoid reading about politics for awhile, and remember that it’s just two humans competing for a job. An important job, we should take it seriously, but no matter who ends up winning, it’s OK.

August 15 - Swiftboating Obama

I predicted that this would be a very negative campaign, and it appears it already started. Jerome Corsi, who was a driving force behind the debunked swiftboat attacks against John Kerry in 2004, has decided to use lies and mud to try to take down another Democratic Presidential candidate, this time Barack Obama. I doubt it will work.

When the attacks on Kerry came out in 2004, the Senator chose at first not to dignify them by refuting them. The media treated Kerry as the story — are these claims true? As it came out that the ’swiftboaters’ had actually not served with Kerry, and Kerry’s experiences were verified by his colleagues, people started to realize that the book and attacks were nothing but smears. Now the term “swiftboating” refers to that kind of dishonest character assassination against a political personality. The worst they could get on Kerry is that he may have been wrong about when he was in Cambodian waters (he recollected Christmas, it may have been sometime near Christmas), but he’d already noted that publicly. Exemplary of the dishonesty behind the swiftboaters is that Corsi’s cowriter, John O’Neill, claimed it was “impossible” for Kerry to have been in Cambodia because he would have been disciplined, no swiftboat commander would do that. Yet it’s on record that O’Neill admitted to President Nixon himself he had been in Cambodia around the same time.

Barack Obama’s campaign, unlike John Kerry’s, is ready for this. That already is shown by the reaction to Corsi’s book. While it’s a best seller, the news story is not “is Senator Obama a radical leftist hiding Muslim connections” (the book’s claim), but rather “will this scandal by an author lacking credibility sink the Obama campaign.” In other words, the story is about the smear, not about the candidate. It’s assumed the book is dishonest propaganda, but that it might nonetheless be effective. In 2004 the book was considered credible, and it was really only after the campaign that the extent of the swiftboat fabrications were revealed.

Unlike Kerry, Obama is set to meet smears head on, knowing that the Kerry approach (like Dukakis in 1988 ) doesn’t work. The media needs ‘the other side’ of the story, or else it’ll get reported with more credibility than it deserves. John Kerry himself is part of this, starting a website “truth fights back,” designed to not only respond to smears, but enlist supporters in reporting smears that are out there so they can be dealt with. In the past this ‘no smear left behind’ approach was seen as dangerous, it might give the smears more credibility than they deserve. And indeed, really outlandish and silly smears (e.g., Obama’s birth certificate has problems, etc.) are pretty much ignored. But ones like these need to be met.

John McCain has certainly suffered smears in his political life, most notoriously the false rumors of his “black child,” apparently planted by the Bush campaign in the 2000 primary. From what I’ve been able to find on line, there aren’t many smears at all against McCain yet. There are exaggerations: connections with lobbyists or the Georgian government are used to insinuate that McCain is in the back pocket of DC insiders, and not a maverick at all. They’ve also twisted a poor choice of words about “100 years if necessary” concerning Iraq to paint him as a war monger. But twisting words and bringing up connections to make misleading statements about politicians is now standard fare. It’s used by and against both parties.

The “gotcha game” is played when instead of having real political debate and discourse you wait for the opponent to make an error – a gaffe, a moment of stupidity – and you jump on it to try to get political advantage. Nothing is served by this tactic; those involved know that anyone in the public eye will say something stupid now and then, but if you can put another person on the defensive, that can yield political benefits. It was used against Obama when he used the word “bitter” to describe rural Pennsylvania voters, or against Kerry when he tried to make a joke that students should study hard or else they’d end up fighting in Iraq.

Both parties do it. When Senator George Allen called some one in the audience a ‘macaca’ it led to a huge hubbub, and charges of racial insensitivity. He went from being a likely 2008 GOP Presidential nomine to losing his Senate seat. When Trent Lott made kind comments to former Senator Strom Thurmond, saying the country would have been better off if he had become President, he was vilified and forced to give up his leadership position because Thurmond in 1948 (when he ran for President) had been a segregationist. Of course Lott wasn’t supporting segregation, but in the gotcha game that doesn’t matter.

True smears go beyond the gotha game, and work on innuendo, lies, propaganda and whisper campaigns. It’s the stuff of websites like no quarter, which has tried to spread baseless rumors about Obama for months (it was originally a pro-Clinton website, so this is Democrat vs. Democrat), and of course it is the stuff for writers like Corsi. To be fair, the McCain campaign has stayed aloof from this, both candidates seem to be willing to play the gotcha game, but don’t want to smear.

Are Americans really naive enough to fall for such things? I suspect not, but only if the opponent creates an alternative storyline and makes sure the media knows it. Kerry didn’t respond to the swiftboaters, so by the time he realized he had to, the allegations were now in the public psyche. Obama’s decision to respond to everything forcefully already has paid dividends as Corsi’s book is being reported as coming from a discredited source, and the media feel obliged to give Obama’s side of the story alongside claims from the book. This doesn’t mean it won’t have some impact, but it will probably be a muted impact.

Defending against the ‘gotcha game’ is in some ways more difficult. It requires candidates be so careful not to go off script and risk some gaffe that they become scripted and boring. The challenge is to do so while still being able to convince voters. This is where Obama has to take more risks. He’s been an amazingly disciplined candidate so far (though McCain has become more disciplined in recent weeks). That discipline allowed him to defeat Clinton and create a real movement. Yet it also now means that as others try to define him as elitist or humorless, his disciplined conservatism (in personal demeanor, not political policies) could work against him. It appears Presidential, but not necessarily likable, and at this time he has to show he can be both. Obama has to define himself, show humor, and convince people that he can be a leader we can trust.

Ronald Reagan had similar problems in 1980, and polls were close until near election day (he held a slight lead before the conventions, like Obama now). People were uncertain if this inspirational actor really was a leader, or just a likable guy who learned his lines well. He convinced people he could be trusted, and he got a landslide. That is the job Obama has to do if he wants to win — answer the swiftboaters, and connect with the American people. If he can do it, he’ll probably win. If he can’t, then even those who like and are somewhat inspired by Obama will decide McCain is a safer pick.

August 13 - Limits of Power

With Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili trying to compare the current crisis to Poland in 1939, or Czechoslovakia in 1938, many are bemoaning the fact the West has done little to nothing to protect Georgia from Russian aggression. As I noted yesterday, the case is far more complex than the pro-Georgia crowd makes it out to be, thanks to Georgian aggression in South Ossetia, but nonetheless pundits and analysts are caught puzzled by and a bit disturbed by the fact that even if Russia were completely in the wrong, there is very little the US can do. What does that say about American power in the new century?

The United States is an overstretched power, which has tried to control politics in the Mideast and Central Asia through a mix of military power and economic aid. In the post-Cold War era where the US believed it was a “unipolar power,” the US initiated a bold strategy designed to achieve global dominance. It is late enough in the game to say conclusively that this strategy failed.

In the Mideast, democracy has not moved forward, and has arguably taken steps backwards in Egypt and Iran. Afghanistan remains in shambles, with the Taliban and its supporters more powerful than anytime since the regime fell, and war lords controlling much of the country. In Iraq the US is trying to find a way out so it can declare victory, but sectarian divisions remain, the democracy there on paper only, and corruption endemic. These signs point to continuing conflict and chaos, perhaps to be settled ultimately by partition or a new authoritarian. Moreover, the New York Times reported that the private sector economy is contracting rapidly in Iraq, while government jobs are on the increase, thanks to oil revenue. This makes Iraq look much more like states such as Saudi Arabia than any kind of western model.

In states around the world, from South Korea to Pakistan to Indonesia, US influence is waning, and anti-Americanism rising. Even America’s allies in Europe, still recovering from arrogant comments by former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld about “old Europe,” is moving away from an absolute embrace of the US to a series of global partnerships, including Russia and China. Economically the position of the US is most dire. The US sends billions of dollars to questionable states to pay for our massive energy needs, while clinging to a large current account deficit and budget deficit. (For more on all this, see “The Economic Storm.“)

The result: America’s huge military is not feared because its limits were shown in Afghanistan and Iraq, public opinion is loathe to any further military adventures, and so we’re all bark and no bite. Beyond that, our massive oil consumption and rejection of the Kyoto accord create the image that we’re a people screwing over the rest of the planet in order to satisfy our hedonistic lifestyle — rightly or wrongly, that fosters anti-Americanism which impacts political decisions everywhere. With our economy now weakened to the point that we no longer are able to shape economic realities, the US has been brought down a few pegs. Instead of being a unipolar power, we are now a large player in a multipolar system. Worse, we are a large player who is spent, and neither respected nor feared. I suspect this is a low point and we can rise up from here, but we’ll never be where we were at in 1990.

Why did the US use the ‘unipolar moment’ so recklessly? The US could have focused on protecting its sovereign interests and creating a diplomatic order reminiscent of the old Metternich system where national power and diplomacy led to stability. However, American actions have led to an overstretching of US power and a demonstration of America’s relative impotence. Why?

The simplistic response would be to blame “Bush and the Neo-cons,” but often foreign policy decisions, good or bad, transcend domestic politics. I think the reason for the US errors in overstretching its capacity come from globalization, and two complementary beliefs: a) that the US could and should be a force for democracy and markets now that the Cold War is over (idealism); and b) the US needs to maintain access to oil, especially as demand increases with uncertainties about future production. This created a perfect confluence: if we do what is morally right to try to expand liberty and markets, we’ll also get what is in our self-interest, an advantage in the competition for oil and other resources.

The other choice — to try to build a stable balance of power system that does not confront Russia, China or even Iran — was viewed as dangerous. As Charles Krauthammer noted in his piece “The Unipolar Moment,” America’s period of dominance was certain to be brief — a moment. If the US did not use this moment to try to assure that the international system would be shaped in a manner conducive to American interests and values — values such as democracy and freedom — other more ominous forces, authoritarians and religious extremists, would gain the upper hand. The wars from Desert Storm onward have been wars to try to use that unipolar moment to create a world environment friendly to America and western values. Given Russia’s slide back to authoritarianism and the specter of Islamic extremism, doesn’t such a policy make sense?

In a word: no. The US public may be nationalist, but they need a real cause to sustain any kind of sacrifice. The Clinton and Bush Administrations thought they could “win the world” on the cheap, with Americans benefiting from their efforts through globalization. But while on paper it looked like military action would be easy, in reality it runs into the fact that after the war, the US doesn’t get to shape the outcome. The naive belief that democracy would naturally come about because ‘everyone wants freedom’ was never tenable, even if many in high places believed it. Second, the economic realities are such that this was clear to set up real crises for the future. The cheaper and more effective path would have been the road not taken, to work to build a stable international system through diplomacy and without trying to be the geopolitical mover and shaker.

Russia’s move into Georgia carries risks for both the United States and Russia. As the US contemplates asserting its military rights in the region, including a presence in Georgia, the possibility grows that this little country best known for a line from a Beatles song could indeed be the Sarajevo of the early 21st century. When national pride (of which Russia and the US have loads) and military presence are combined, anything can happen. Russia also has to balance the diplomatic costs; for the all satisfaction they get for showing that they are the dominant regional power, this could be a fleeting benefit if they lose G8 status or suffer other diplomatic loses. If they play this right they probably won’t — most European states don’t take the hardline attitude the US does, and in fact seem to be playing a game of ‘good cop, bad cop’ with the Russians now. Russia has to be careful not to overplay its hand.

So both the US and Russia have to recognize the limits of their power, and not let this get out of control. The Sarkozy plan seems a good starting point. Russia should not do anything to goad the West further, and must not make it look like such plans are just meaningless ways of buying time to increase their intrusion into Georgia. The US must resist the urge to “punish” Russia. Besides the hypocrisy of such a call noted yesterday, this could also increase the chances the crisis could grow — and that would leave the US with only really bad options.

If anything, this case shows the need to take that road not taken, to back away from the assertive policies of the past 18 years and work closely with the EU, Russia, China and other states. Idealism feels good, everyone likes the rhetoric of spreading freedom and democracy. But in a world as complex and difficult as this, freedom spreads best on its own as people take power in their own hands, not from the guns of state trying to reshape the world. Because, once the US acknowledges and accepts the limits of its power, we will find that a cooperative, diplomatic and non-arrogant America will be more appreciated and powerful than we now imagine possible.

August 12 - American Hypocrisy

I ask forgiveness in advance, because I’m going to use my blog-given right to go on a rant. It’s a rant directed at both political parties, the media, and it’s about foreign policy. Feel free to disagree with my rant, my words are harsher than I am!

On the 9th I commented on the conflict in Georgia, and criticized the reaction of American politicians, who were blaming Russia for the attack. Reading the vehement attacks on Russia, especially from the McCain camp (Bush and Obama too, but they aren’t quite as rhetorically charged), I’m getting a bit disgusted with the hypocrisy and double standards being shown.

First: Georgia started this particular war. Georgia tried to use the cover of the Olympics to launch an attack on separatists controlling South Ossetia, hoping that Russia would be afraid to respond. I’m not sure why they miscalculated in thinking Russia wouldn’t use this as an opportunity to show muscle in the region. How could they not see that Russia would want to assert it’s self in Russia’s so called “near abroad,” especially after years of NATO expansion eastward and Kosovo’s recent independence? Maybe they thought their ties with the US would protect them; perhaps a bit of group think convinced them that Russia would accept it. But their attack killed Russian peacekeepers and put the people of South Ossetia at risk. Russia responded fast, showing they were ready (and eagerly awaiting) Georgia’s misjudgment.

The South Ossetians are not Georgian, even though legally their territory is in Georgia (thanks to how the Soviets divided up the USSR). North Ossetia is in Russia, and most South Ossetians would prefer to be in Russia too, and use Russian currency and passports. Georgia has not controlled the region. This creates a difficult situation, one which Georgia escalated to war by trying for a military solution.

Back in 1999 the same kind of thing happened back in the Balkans. Kosovo was a predominately Albanian enclave in Serbia, and its people did not want to be part of the Serb Republic. Unlike South Ossetia, Kosovo was not controlled by separatists, the rebels were a small group of insurgents known as the Kosovo Liberation Army, an organization long considered by the US to be a terrorist organization. The Serbs decided to come down on the organization with force. Not only did they not invade with the brutality of the Georgians in South Ossetia, but they killed far fewer civilians. They also didn’t target western peacekeepers, it was an internal Serb affair.

The US, however, decided that this was a violation of human rights, and demanded the Serbs cede autonomy to the Kosovars. The Russians joined the Serbs in resisting this call, saying that Serbia was simply engaged in its own sovereign effort to defeat an insurgent terrorist organization. NATO the US dismissed that, citing Albanian rights and the fact civilians were in danger. The result was a long bombing of Serbia, with the Serbs finally surrendering Kosovo. The hundreds of thousands Albanian refugees came AFTER NATO started bombing, so that can’t be put forward as a reason for that war.

So when Russia is confronted with a similar situation, but even worse when an already autonomous region on the border of Russia, with people who identify with Russia, gets attacked by Georgia and Russian peacekeepers are killed. Well, there is far more rationale for Russia to respond than there was for NATO in Kosovo in 1999! Russian concerns about Serb sovereignty were dismissed then, but suddenly the West has intense concerns about Georgian sovereignty? Give me a break!

Don’t get me wrong. I opposed NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, and I think Russia was wrong to respond to Georgia’s invasion with a massive military intervention. If I were Russian, I’d be one of the few voices arguing that this is an immoral policy, and probably be vehemently against Russian nationalists. Yet looking at it in a detached manner Georgia deserves even more condemnation for starting this war to begin with, and not being able to accept that South Ossetia does not want to be part of Georgia. Also, if NATO had not gotten involved in the Balkans in 1999, and had agreed with Russia’s argument about sovereignty, the US would have far more standing to criticize Russia now. We could point at them for engaging in double standards, defending Serb sovereignty but not Georgian (though the killing of Russian peacekeepers would give them some cause).

But clearly NATO changed the rules of the game back in 1999, and so appeals based on Georgian sovereignty are misguided at best.

So what should the US do? First, I don’t think we should transport Georgian troops back in order to fight the Russians. If Georgia wants to leave Iraq, great. But they should get themselves back, we should do nothing that would expand or extend an existing conflict. Second, we should condemn Georgia for its aggression into South Ossetia, and then condemn Russia for responding to it with a massive invasion. We should be clear that we are not taking sides, but believe that the way both countries are approaching the South Ossetian problem is wrong, and needlessly endangers civilians, including children. Third, we should make it clear to Georgia that until the South Ossetian issue is solved with Russia in a peaceful manner, there is no chance of NATO membership for Georgia (that goes without saying, giving that the Europeans have a more realistic view of the situation than the US). Finally, we should do whatever we can to extend humanitarian aid to anyone affected, and offer our ‘good offices’ for any help mediating a cease fire or even better, a solution to the conflict. Perhaps we could make an exchange: the US would recognize and support South Ossetian independence, if the Russians recognize and support Kosovar independence.

I note that there have been others who made the same comparison I did to Sarajevo in 1914. America’s hypocrisy in its response to this invasion is one reason why I worry that people might push this out of control. Unless we can understand how the Russians perceive this, and show some appreciation for the fact Georgia started this, we react in a manner that is provocative and insulting. World politics is practiced by humans, and humans are driven by emotion, imagination-driven understandings, and far too often various forms of group think.

It’s time to step back and instead of fanning the flames, try to figure out a solution that recognizes the interests of all sides (Georgia, Russia and the South Ossetian people), and come to grips with our own double standards and hypocrisy on the world stage.

August 11 - Compassion

Yesterday I finally saw the musical Les Miserables (based on the novel by Victor Hugo), performed live by the Maine State Music Theater (MSMT) company in Brunswick. I have heard a lot about this musical, but today I realized why Les Miserables has the reputation it has: it was one of the most powerful plays I’ve seen.

I won’t describe the entire plot, only that it’s built around the story of a man, Jean Valijean (amazing job by Dennis St. Pierre), who after 19 years in prison for stealing bread to feed his sister’s child, has an act of compassion turn his life around. He has learned to hate the world and its injustice, and seems to have no chance in life. When he steals silver from a Bishop who befriended him, he gets caught, and is certain that he will again go to prison, in slavery probably until death. But the Bishop saves him, saying he gifted the silver goblet, and adds some candle holders to Valijean’s bag. Reluctantly the police (including his nemesis, Javert) let him go. The Bishop tells him that he bought his soul for God, and he should take that gift and do good. Valijean is shocked by this act of compassion, and turns his life around, changing his identity and becoming a success.

Yet eight years later (the play is set between 1815 and 1832) he is caught up again in a crisis, as upon rescuing the young Fantine (brilliantly played by Amy Bodnar) he realizes he had stood by as an unfair foreman fired her from his factory, and she has now turned to prostitution to try to make money to send to a dishonest couple who she’s paying to raise a child born out of wedlock. He also finds out that the police and Javert have found a man they think is him, and are going to condemn him for violating his parole. He decides he has to save the innocent man, announce who he is, and give up all he has accomplished. This act of compassion for the innocent man he does not know is compounded as he flees Javert and promises the dying Fantine he will take care of her daughter Cosette. He then pays off the couple raising her, and takes Cosette to Paris to raise as his own daughter.

The play has other acts of compassion. Eponine (the daughter of the couple who had been raising Cosette, all of whom have become beggars in Paris) sacrifices her life to help the man she loves but who is oblivious to her, Marius (awesome performance by Daniel Bogart), send a message of love to Cosette. Marius is involved in rebellion in Paris, which is put down harshly. Valijean, the hero, after finding out about Marius and Cosette, goes to the barricades, ostensibly to help the revolt, but really to try to protect Marius so he could be with Cosette. The rebels have captured Javert (the cop) and give him to Valijean to do what he will. Javert has been chasing Valijean now for almost 20 years, and now Valijean can end it by killing Javert. Instead he lets him go, and then rescues a wounded Marius and saves him. He tells Marius his story and asks him to take care of Cosette. He flees, knowing his true identity if found out would dishonor Cosette. Marius and Cosette marry, but Javert, his world view shattered by the act of compassion granted him by Valijean, commits suicide.

The fact the play is a musical allowed the story to have intense emotion; I was choked up and near/in tears through much of it, not just because of the human emotion of death and love, but a powerful emotional connection to the message: love and acts of compassion are the strongest and most noble forces in the universe. The Bishop’s act to save the criminal who had stole from him makes it possible for him to rescue Cosette and Marius, and change their lives. Eponine’s compassion is part of this as well.

The story involves some of the worst aspects of 19th century France, intense poverty and injustice for the poor. The rebels, young scholars with heads full of radical ideas, have the right idea, but their heroism and sacrifice are meaningless. The scoundrals and villains in the story seem untouchable, injustice reigns. Yet humans are capable of acts of goodness, and these acts, even if they involve sacrificing ones’ life or freedom, create good and make the world a better place.

Look around the world now. People get caught up in political movements, parties, candidates, all convinced their side has the right idea about what to do to make the world better. They have their “isms” - capitalism, communism, socialism, anarchism, libertarianism, communitarianism, etc. They put effort and time into trying to fight for their causes. Yet in so doing it’s easy to get so caught up in the abstract notion of a battle and fight for justice, that one doesn’t concentrate on the real things people can do to make another’s life a little better. People are willing to risk their life for ideology and country, but not for love or compassion.

This may seem odd coming from a political scientist, but I believe politics is overrated. Ideology is vastly overrated. Ideology is just a simplistic interpretation of a small part of human existence, and is at best vastly incomplete and riddled with errors — every ideology. People who lose themselves in politics and ideology risk losing sight of the fact that the world changes less from political movements then from people doing the right thing and treating others with love and compassion.

To be sure, Victor Hugo’s work is fiction, but in the arts — both the novel and the musical — ideas can be conveyed that touch the soul, even if the head can show many things wrong with that perspective. I’m not saying politics isn’t at all important, or that we shouldn’t fight for just causes in our world; on the contrary, we are here and should act to do whatever we can to help real people live more just and better lives. Instead, I’m noting that perhaps our priorities get screwed up when the abstract cause and political theory or ideology trumps notions of love, compassion, and treating others right.

The musical ends with a rousing finale, imploring the audience to join their fight, not for political change or revolution, but to show love and compassion — the most powerful force of all in the universe. It recalled to me when Chanda Luker, a survivor of the Cambodian genocide when she was but a child (now a travel agent here in town), spoke at UMF. Her story was powerful, and the group of 300 listening were silent and in tears as she described the brutality she had experienced. Yet at the end she asked one thing of the audience: be kind to each other. That is more important than anything anyone can do.

So I’ll try my best. I’ll talk about politics, culture, and offer my own social critique of a society that to me seems to have lost it’s soul in pursuit of material excess. But I will fight the temptation to give in to abstraction, to lose sight of the power of love, the importance of compassion, and connection with other humans at a personal level. That will leave more of a mark on more lives than anything else one can do — the more we practice kindness and compassion, the better this world will become, regardless of the politics and economics.

August 10 - China’s Century?

After watching the unbelievably beautiful, complicated and artistic Olympic opening ceremony in China, people are starting to realize that this country of 1.3 billion people, after decades of misrule by Mao and the Communists, could be on a path to becoming the dominant world power. They have had record growth rates of around 10% a year for almost thirty years, and while they remain Communist in name, there is nothing communist about how the country’s economy operates. So, after the American century, are we about to experience the century of China?

Since the end of the Cold War China has seen its world position skyrocket. Not only has their economy continued to boom, but the American trade deficit has grown by five times, as Americans buy more and more Chinese goods. This deficit is financed in large part by China’s investment in American markets, helping China build a large current account surplus, as well as a large saving rate. All of this suggests that despite the pressures of poverty and population, China’s economy is far from spent; in fact, it is reaching a position where it could allow its currency to appreciate, shift from foreign markets to its internal market, and balance export led growth with domestic economic improvement. The US, with a large current accounts deficit (though declining a bit thanks to the dollar’s recent weakness), would be further pressured by less Chinese investment in the US economy, perhaps sparking inflation along with recessionary pressures (i.e., stagflation — made even more likely with high oil prices). Even now the Asian economies appear to keep booming even as the US drifts into a crisis of unknown proportions.

Geopolitically, China’s position is as good as ever. American errors in Iraq have not only bogged the US down, but have increased anti-Americanism world wide. This has broadened China’s appeal in the EU, as well as wtih Russia and Iran. Russia and China have always been rivals, but they both have interests in the stability of Central Asia, minimizing American power in the Mideast, and building a strategic partnership with Iran. In Asia, China is the dominant economy, and its influence is even working to improve relations with Taiwan, and the two economies are increasingly linked (suggesting a ‘unification’ may not be out of the question down the line — but one of choice, not force). China’s political leaders now have a strong argument against the military concern for the US: the US experience in Iraq shows the limited usefulness of military power in the 21st century, and the US is so over-stretched that it is in no position to challenge China in Asia or really anywhere. China can undercut US policy directed to Iran without worry over any American retaliation — both politically and militarily, the US cannot afford to confront China.

China’s military is not especially large, given the size of the country, nor is it likely to engage in the kind of interventionism world wide that has weakened the US. They not only put respect for sovereignty as a primary principle, but they recognize that military adventurism is not worth the price. Better to make deals and leverage economic clout. That’s actually how the US achieved so much in the 20th century, military actions have in general hurt the US, including Korea, Vietnam, and of course recently Iraq.

To be sure, China faces hurdles. Some are external: China needs oil, wood and other raw materials. This has lead to a proliferation of agreements between China and various African states, as well as aggressive Chinese deals in the Mideast. As oil prices rise, however, it will stress and even threaten all fossil fuel based economies. China, also harmed by alarming rates of pollution growth, is starting to look at alternate sources of energy (and has for awhile) but they rely on the outside world for raw materials.

Others barriers are internal: hundreds of millions Chinese are still living in poverty, and this could threaten stability. One reason democracy is unlikely to work in China is that these millions could skew elections, and create destabilization or even chaos. But as the middle class grows in wealth and number, they will demand a say on political matters. The Chinese Communist Party will have to manage political reform as adeptly as economic reform to assure that the 21st century will be the “Century of China.” Ultimately, the Communist Party, who despite ditching communism has remained in power because of fear of national fragmentation, will need to give up its grip on authority. It’s unlikely that they will embrace democracy of a western style, but they will need to find a way to share authority and open up the country’s political system. They don’t have to meet our standards, but they have to make sure the Chinese people are satisfied.

Also, if the economic growth continues to poison the earth and water in China (as well as contributing to things like global warming), they could find themselves with ecological disasters that undercut the progress they make. Finally, they need to balance their own love of sovereignty with the globalized political economy they benefit so greatly from.

Finally, corruption has thrived as the economy has expanded. This hasn’t led to the problems corruption often causes, since economic growth has been so intense that there is money to spare. But to really become a stable, long term world power, they need to have rule of law that limits corruption.

In all, though, the Chinese should be thrilled by the attention they are receiving, and are justified to take it as an omen that their Olympics began at 8-8-08, at 8:08 PM — eight being a lucky number in China. Things could go wrong, challenges exist (as they do for every country), but right now China’s future looks bright.

August 9 - Georgia on my mind

Hearing the hyperbolic rhetoric from McCain and Obama - -and most of the American media — about Russia’s military action in Georgia, it strikes me that we’re being a bit hypocritical. The situation involving South Ossetia is complicated, and Georgian policies have themselves been brutal and repressive. If the shoe was on the other foot, we’d like be doing the same thing Russia is. Yet it’s being painted as an attack by the big bad bear on poor old Georgia. All this gets me a bit worried, small things can lurch out of control if the leaders aren’t careful.

On June 28, 1914, news came from Sarajevo that the arch duke Franz Ferdinand had been killed by Serb terrorists. At that time Austria and Russia each wanted to fill the vacuum left in the Balkans by the withdrawing Ottoman Turks. Austria bordered the Balkans, and hoped that Bosnia would agree to become part of the Austrian Empire — Franz Ferdinand wanted to assure them that they would have relative autonomy, which would be far better than if they joined the Serbs. The Serbs saw themselves as rightful leaders of the region since the Kingdom of Serbia had lost to the Ottomans in the battle of Kosovo in 1389, and wanted to create a southern slavic state (Yugo-slavia), which they would lead. They feared Austria’s overtures to Bosnia. Russia feared them more, since this might allow Austria to expand into the Balkans, and Russia’s status as a great power would diminish.

In this assassination, Austria sensed opportunity. If they could blame Serbia for the war, and issue an ultimatum Serbia could not accept, they could attack and defeat the Serbs and essentially win the region outright. The German Kaiser assured Austria of his support (though he probably didn’t realize what he was getting himself into) and for a month diplomatic games were played as the Europeans watched the minor little spectacle in the Balkans play itself out. By the end of the month, though, the crisis grew out of porpotions, and ultimately exploded into World War I as alliance structures, secret treaties, citizens driven by nationalist emotion and poor leadership let the minor crisis become a European cataclysm.

Today fighting broke out in Georgia, a former Soviet Republic. Georgia has oil and is in a strategically important position, bordering the Caspian sea, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey (not far from Iran and Iraq). A lot of oil flows through here, and instability here could influence world oil markets as well as other states in the region. The fighting involves South Ossetia, a part of Georgia where most of the inhabitants feel closer to Russia than to Georgia, and wish to rejoin North Ossetia, which is now part of Russia. South Ossetia is in the center-north of the country, it’s border not far from the Georgian capital of Tblisi.

Georgia has been adamant that they retain control of South Ossetia, but have been unable to hold it. Separatists have managed to forge a semi-autonomous region, and many if not most citizens there hold Russian passports and use Russian currency. The Georgians have recently decided to take on the separatists and try to regain control of the entire region. Russia has responded, essentially claiming that the rights of the South Ossetians for their self-determination trumps Geogia’s legal sovereignty.

Could this minor war spiral out of control as well? Probably not. But consider: Georgia has been the third largest coalition partner in Iraq, something the US greatly appreciates. That’s ending though — in response to this attack, they’re bringing their troops back home. In fact Georgia wants the US to airlift those troops back to Georgia to fight the Russians! One wonders about the conversations Putin and Bush are having at the Olympics. The US has been a strong supporter of Georgia’s claim for sovereignty, and put a lot of pressure on the Europeans to support Georgia’s bid to join NATO back in April. The Europeans, skeptical of Georgia’s crisis in South Ossetia, and not wanting to anger Russia, refused, leaving Georgia (as well as Ukraine) out of the organization.

In general, there has been bipartisan support for Georgia in the US. After NATO rejected Georgia’s effort to join, powerful Democrat Joe Biden demanded NATO not leave Georgia in the lurch after all the country has done to support the West. Indeed, Georgia has embraced the US as tightly as it could, having Americans train its troops, giving the US access to intelligence information, supported a US backed oil pipeline through Central Asia, and often acted as if Russia wouldn’t dare hurt it, given Georgia’s powerful friend. The US reciprocated by intense lobbying to get Georgia in NATO, as well as strong support of Georgia’s claim over South Ossetia, despite the fact most Ossetians would prefer to be part of Russia.

That’s why one can get worried that this could spiral out of control. I’m not worried about a US attack on Russia to protect Georgia — of all the things worth risking total annihilation, a small country in central Asia is not one. However, neighboring countries might find it useful to build on the chaos there, and a spread of regional instability could create problems that might impact Iraq, Iran, or other parts of Russia. Any time a spark is lit, one can’t be certain of the implications.

Moreover, just as the apparently minor assassination of Franz Ferdinand sparked a powder keg that was likely to go off eventually, the struggle for power and resources in that region of the world may be a similar powderkeg. Corrupt regimes, a Russia wanting influence, America believing itself the dominant power, Iran, China…all converging on a part of the world with considerable oil and natural gas at a time when an energy crisis threatens world economic conditions.

More than likely this is just a small ethnic conflict that will be resolved through diplomacy, with Russia simply showing that it can’t be ignored, and Georgia learning the limits of American friendship — we’ll give you aid and support, but we won’t die for you or risk war with a nuclear Russia! Also, we need to beware of oversimplified analyzes. A lot of people will posit this as an evil Russia attacking a poor pro-western state and demand we do more. But from the stand point of the South Ossetians struggling for self-determination, Georgia is the ruthless actor. And to many Georgians, the South Ossetians are traitors whose violence in their separatist movement requires a crack down. It’s complex.

So while this is likely just another story about a small war in a distant land, this could also be a start of a series of events in a brittle part of the world which could explode into something much bigger. It’s a conflict worth keeping an eye on.

August 8 - The Selling of the President

In 1968 Joe McGinniss published The Selling of the President, a book on how Richard Nixon had revolutionized politics by using the tactics of Madison avenue and marketing to win the White House. This included things one could not get away with today, thanks to Youtube and the internet: contradictory policy statements in different parts of the country. But the point was that Nixon was sold like a product, and that was a shocking accusation at the time. Would Americans choose their President like they would a bar of soap? McGinniss also talked about the ‘new kind’ of politician who was hazy on the issues, but likable and presentable (a Congressman George H.W. Bush, father of the current President, was an example).

Today McGinniss’s charge seems quaint. In the 40 years since Richard Nixon’s campaign discovered the power of marketing politics, current candidates have perfected the practice. Barack Obama, labeled by Jonah Goldberg as “the post-modern candidate,” is an example of how far this process has gone. Don’t get me wrong, I like Obama and think he is well qualified to be President, and in my opinion would be a better choice than John McCain. Yet his campaign is a marketer’s masterpiece.

This ’selling of the President’ has been progressing since JFK’s youthful appeal helped win the 1960 election. After Nixon, the Jimmy Carter brand was a post-Watergate outsider “I will not lie to you” politician who came out of nowhere. Ronald Reagan used people like Michael Deaver to take communication and selling of the candidate to the next level. A former actor, Reagan learned his lines and delivered them well, told stories that connected people emotionally, and looked great on TV. In 1984 Walter Mondale dismissed his top challenger, Gary Hart, with a one liner from a Wendy’s commercial: “where’s the beef?” James Carville ran Bill Clinton’s campaign on all cylinders, treating it like war — but not so much ideological war, but more like a Pepsi vs. Coca Cola conflict. Responses right away to the media against any attack, a message of the day, sticking to the message (”it’s the economy stupid”) and taking focus groups and polling seriously. Karl Rove took it even a step further, and George W. Bush came to power stressing unity, compassionate conservatism, and running a very tight, disciplined campaign, which kept on message.

Every campaign learned from past campaigns. Ones that couldn’t market well — Al Gore unable to figure out which “image” fit him, Bob Dole running a political campaign rather than a advertising one, or John Kerry who let others define him — lost. No longer was it about the message or even the man, but the one liners, the slogans, and the image of the man. The candidate just has to be disciplined, look good, project the right image, and say his lines well. After all, even Paris Hilton sounds Presidential when she delivers her lines on the energy policy — substance is no longer required.

Barack Obama emerged from nowhere and has engineered a revolution in American politics. He is extremely intelligent, disciplined, and presents himself well. He doesn’t have Reagan or Clinton’s charm and humor, which is a negative, but he can probably learn to present those traits during the campaign. He has extensive policy statements; his speeches are full of detail, and his website takes stances on every issue one might have a question about. That’s important. These may all be forgotten after the election — most Presidents don’t govern like they campaigned — but well crafted persuasive policy positions during the campaign are necessary. He has a message that resonates: Change We Can Believe In (brilliant — true political junkies might charge it is empty, but marketers know this kind of slogan is magic), and in every speech he talks about people acting to empower themselves. Empowerment is a big concept in marketing circles these days. Moreover, he is a superb lawyer, he can engage in policy debates and he understands the issues. The Democrats have a good product to sell.

Moreover, the team around Obama understands the new media. Building on work by Howard Dean in 2004, they engaged in a massive grass roots internet effort to build a movement and gain access to levels of campaign contributions never before imaginable. Rather than big donors and every political minded individuals actually giving money to a candidate, the theme of empowerment helped him persuade people across the country to give often small amounts — but small amounts that added up quickly. They’ve generated support from the more hard core so-called “net roots,” but are now shifting to balance the old constituency with the new; pivoting to the center.

One might think from all of this that I’m down on Obama. Not at all. Politics is played in a way that works best; Obama and his methods are a natural product of how American politics operates today. It will be emulated. I personally think Obama is a quality candidate based on his background and the positions he’s taken. Most importantly, he is surrounded by very good and knowledgable advisors. He’s smart enough to choose the best minds to help him on issues as well as on campaigning. I suspect he’d bring a strong competent team to the White House, not a bunch of cronies. Most Presidents bring long term loyal advisers with them to the White House; Obama looks set to bring real experts.

Still, this notion of politics as marketing, and Obama as a “post-modern candidate” is troubling in a broader sense. This change in American politics is the reason that the politicians don’t talk about the tough and troubling issues, as I noted yesterday. It’s the reason more gets made of race, gaffes, or who said what one liner than real policy debate. Most voters will not vote on ideology, policy, or analysis of the positions, advisers, and background of the candidates. Rather, it will be an emotional choice, strongly affected by how well each campaign sells their own candidate or tears down the other.

In my post Consumerism and Fascism I noted the similarities between the marketing behind hyper consumerism and fascism, and in Triumph of Will I cite similar arguments from Horkheimer and Adorno right after WWII. Even though this time the marketers may be putting forth a candidate that I like, the fact they can do this means that we need to worry a bit about the future. What will happen if, say, a terror attack causes more anger, if an economic collapse creates havoc, or someone truly devious can come to power by projecting the proper image? In short, our politics risks giving way to emotion-driven salesmanship. Hence the rise of talk radio, swiftboating, blogs that specialize in ridicule of the “other” side, with personal animosity for those whose views are different. All thrive on emotion, use enlightenment tools only to rationalize their position, and turn politics into holy war. This creates a real danger of future fascism or authoritarianism.

To be sure, it may be that the consumers are knowledgable after all, and I’m underestimating them. Perhaps Obama only gained this support because he earned it, just as McCain rose from the political dead to surprisingly capture the GOP nomination. Perhaps the voters are more sophisticated than I give them credit. I’d like to think so, especially since I think we have the best pair of candidates than in any recent election. Maybe blogs and new media are actually helping break through the traditional old media grip. However, judging from the tactics, arguments and media coverage of this election, it seems to me that for most people it’s emotion and marketing that will shape their vote, not real reflection on the issues and the candidates.

All of this gives me a sense of foreboding. We place so much emphasis on our political institutions that we ignore the importance of our social structures. We focus so much on wealth and economic performance, that we ignore real cultural problems. Carnival consumerism isn’t a problem because money is being made! This could hint to a political/cultural storm which, if combined with the economic storm that may be on the horizon, could point to difficult days ahead.

August 7 - What, me worry?

Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe notes something I agree with completely:

“ALFRED E. Neuman isn’t running for president this year, but he might as well be. The United States is speeding toward a fiscal cataclysm, and the leading presidential candidates treat the subject with a nonchalance worthy of Mad Magazine: What, me worry?”

Jacoby notes that the debt is nearing $10 trillion, we’re expected have record deficits this year and next, approaching $500 billion. Taken alongside the housing crisis, the credit collapse, and the dollar’s continuing weakness, this points to an economic cataclysm that could make the next decade extremely difficult. Jacoby also notes (as I have as well) that the baby boomers are about to retire, and this means not only a massive strain on social security, but instead of paying into 401 K plans, they will be withdrawing from them. The impact on the stock market could be very negative. In fact, this could lead to a major collapse in America’s position in the world, something I’ve discussed before.

You’d think this would be a central theme in the campaign, that people would be focused on figuring out how to deal with these structural problems that threaten our very way of life. Instead, the candidates are oblivious, hence Jacoby’s comparison to Alfred E. Neuman. To listen to Obama and McCain speak, you’d think that our problems are simply the result of some bad policies that need changing. They show no sign that they understand the immense challenges facing us in coming years.

They can’t. For McCain, a recognition of the reality of the situation would mean either embracing the possibility of tax increases (anathema to a Republican) or real, intense cuts in government spending. While in the abstract Republicans rail against government programs, when it comes to specifics they are hesitant to recommend real cuts. They know that the public likes broad attacks on government excess, but becomes fickle when their favorite programs or issues are threatened. But to keep it vague, he can’t give numbers or really address the scope of the issue. It’s all marketing, not real political debate. Moreover, it’s almost certain that the cuts will come from military expenditures as well as domestic programs — the public will demand it. But a Republican like McCain can’t even suggest that.

For Obama, recognition of the realities of our fiscal situation would mean curtailing the promises of new government action to solve problems, fight poverty and provide health care. The money won’t be there for new government programs, so he’d have to say that we’ll either have to raise taxes or make cuts as well. But for a Democrat, it’s important that he seem to promise a more active government, otherwise he’d lose the base of his party, something needed in November. Moreover, ever since Walter Mondale miscalculated that being honest about tax increases would be welcomed by an educated voting public, Democrats shy away from clear talk about taxes. Instead a vague promise of “cuts for the middle class” and increases “on the most wealthy” dominate the discussion. That won’t be enough to deal with the problems on the horizon.

So here we stand, before perhaps the biggest economic and political crisis of our country in the last 140 years, and our political leaders, spending billions to try to gain the office of the Presidency, refuse to even acknowledge the problem. Instead, it’s played politically, with both sides blaming the other and claiming they have the solution. It’s enough to make me want to support Paris Hilton, who at least seems to have a sensible energy policy!

Why is it that our leaders refuse to confront difficult problems. They all want to make it seem easy. But, just as the politicians like to blame others for our problems (blame OPEC, big oil, big government, the Democrats, the Republicans, etc.), it’s easy for us to simply blame the politicians. They aren’t leveling with us, they aren’t confronting the deep problems facing our country, they are fiddling as Rome burns! The blame, though, lies with us, the American people.

We’ve become fat, lazy, uneducated, and blind to the complexities of the world around us. We focus more on our entertainment and toys than on the world and its problems. In politics we get more incensed about emotional issues — abortion, flag desecration, etc. — then the complexities of world affairs and the problems facing our economy and the environment. We want a candidate with a slogan that allows us to just ignore the problems — don’t worry, be happy. And, wanting to be elected, the politicians give us what we want. They certainly know the problems are far more intense, they aren’t oblivious to the reality they refuse to acknowledge. But they also know that we don’t want to hear about it, and we’ll certainly withhold our votes if they tell us things that make us uncomfortable.

Oh, but for a candidate who would say: “Fellow Americans, I’d like to stand here and tell you that if you vote for me and my party, we have the policies to solve our problems and secure a prosperous and peaceful future. However, we face problems that defy any easy solution, and require Americans of all political stripes to work together and think creatively. These problems — oil dependency, massive government deficits, a huge trade deficit, the de-industrialization of our country, environmental problems, and a risk of fiscal and economic collapse — are the result of policies embraced by both parties. No one can simply blame the other side. Moreover, we’ve gotten so comfortable with partisan bashing - blaming the ‘evil Democrats’ or the ‘greedy Republicans,’ — that we’ve lost sight of the fact the world is too complex for simple ‘this way or that way’ solution. So I can’t promise new programs to solve our problems. I can’t promise ‘no new taxes.’ We have to keep all options on the table as we deal with this impending crisis. I can only promise to speak openly about these problems, and listen to the various options and possibilities, building compromises that allow Americans to work together to weather this storm, and set the foundation for long term peace and prosperity.”

There’s a good chance our lives will change dramatically in coming years, as economic reality forces us to cut back on all aspects of government, from social programs to military spending. It will bring about an upheaval in our political system. Perhaps, as I noted in “America and the Troglodytes,” this is rooted in a fundamental weakness in modern democracy. Americans will be shocked and angry that this was allowed to happen, and the door will be open for populists, political opportunists, and Bonapartism. It could well be that the 2008 election will be remembered for it’s surreality, candidates talking about empty issues while the country is on a collision course with disaster. We’ll blame the politicians, but they’re just giving us what we want.

August 6 - The Core/Void
 

(For a change of pace, I’ll avoid politics today)

“…Groping in the darkness, searching for a way
To fill the empty space inside and between us all
Stranger in a strange land, what’s a man supposed to do…”
- Rik Emmett, Triumph, “Stranger in a Strange Land,” from Thunder Seven

In thinking about consumerism in recent weeks, I’ve come to the conclusion that living in the modern world is a challenge. Given that most of us have our material needs taken care of, and thus pursue unnecessary wants (though they often feel like needs), one would think that we have it easy. We live in the lap of luxury, surrounded by conveniences and opportunities unimaginable in the past. Yet people are suffering record levels of depression, stress, and anxiety. What gives?

I believe that all humans at base have a fundamental need beyond material concerns: humans all need to have a sense of emotional connection, fulfillment and meaning to feel like we are living a worthwhile and joyful life. I would call this a kind of ’spiritual core,’ something which stabilizes the individual in a world full of uncertainties and challenges. If this core is not filled, it becomes a void, a yearning for meaning that people try to fill, often self-destructively. It is the “empty space inside and between us all” that Rik Emmett mentions.

The void can be a subconscious point of despair and desire, as people sense they are lacking something, that life is boring, and the daily routine is suffocating the sense of self. People respond to this in various ways. Some people go into depression, and see no point in living day to day. It’s all the same, old, unfulfilling and monotonous routine. One feels unappreciated, unimportant, and unsatisfied. Others turn to alcohol and drugs to escape. Most people focus on short term distractions — hence the power of consumerism (’I'm bored, gotta go shopping’), parties, and adventurism where people need a thrill to have that sense of being alive. And, of course, there’s television, video games, and losing oneself in the hectic world of instant messaging, facebook and chat rooms.

These distractions can’t fill the void, they just numb it. But the void is there, driving behaviors, causing everything from eating disorders to promiscuity or road rage. Some focus on career and “moving up,” trying to fill the void with external success. Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson seem to have had that kind of approach, and it can lead to worldly fame, though even that seems fleeting. Michael Jackson tried everything he could to fill the void — even creepy relationships with children — but despite wealth and being top of the charts, he seemed unable to do it. O.J. Simpson was a wealthy movie star former athlete who was one of the best running backs in modern history, yet his success could not fill the void either.

Religion, of course, used to provide the spiritual core that filled the void. It provided community, a sense of meaning, and a chance for introspection and reflection. In that sense, it was a very effective way of giving people both joy and satisfaction, the two things that the void prevents one from achieving if it remains unfilled. Alas, religion has lost that capacity for most of us, thanks to the enlightenment and our modern rational minds. Sure, some can still feel quite at home with their faith, but for people like me, who have learned to be skeptical and rational, there’s no way I can buy a pre-packaged faith and simply believe. The evidence suggests its just tradition and myth, and intellectual honesty prevents me from simply giving in. Moreover, I think that’s true more and more as modernity increases its grip on the human mind. That’s why I argued awhile back that we need a new ‘axial age’ to find a different way to accomplish what religion used to do for us.

So what do we do about this “void”? First, acknowledge that we are not just machines, but we have a need for a sense of meaning, connection, fulfillment and purpose. That way if we find ourselves addicted to video games, reaching for too much drugs and alcohol, immersing ourselves in distractions like porn, consumerism, or whatever, we’re seeking to fill an emotional, even spiritual, need. And while these distractions can create a short term rush, they aren’t really enough to provide meaning; life will constantly seem to be missing something if we simply try to distract ourselves from coming face to face with the ‘void.’ Even romance and love don’t cut it; unless ones’ spiritual core is filled it will be hard to move past the romance stage to the commitment necessary for a long term relationship, and instead people will become bitter that the rush of early love has faded, and either cheat on their spouse, seek divorce so they can try to find that rush again, or just feel miserable and seek other distractions.

I don’t think it’s possible to fill the void without looking inside, so I think the second step is harsh personal honesty. We need examine our actions, and not be afraid to say “that was really stupid,” or “I must have done that because I was insecure and felt threatened.” Most of the time we lie to ourselves, we are so afraid of the void and our own weaknesses that we rationalize our negative behavior and blame others. That leads to a third point: in order to truly be honest with oneself one has to really love and respect oneself. If one is convinced he or she is a good person, admitting weakness and error is simply a method of self-improvement, not a reason for self-loathing.

That creates a catch-22. Without a spiritual core, it’s hard to love oneself, and thus hard to be honest with oneself. It takes work to look inside and get to know oneself and really confront the need for meaning. It’s so much easier to go for external distractions. In such cases, I think people need to think about what is “out there” that helps address the needs of ‘the void.’ That includes family, friendship, nature, and the arts (literature, music, etc.) Honest, deep discussions with family and friends — as well as light hearted fun — create a sense of connection, which the void needs. Nature touches us spiritually, I believe. We sense at a deep level that there is sense to the world, and we are part of something with meaning, something fundamentally beautiful. The arts are sparks of creativity, which reflect that aspect of human spirit which the void needs — creative expression is, I believe, one of the most enduring ways to fill the void. Exploration, learning and travel are also helpful — it stimulates the mind to look beyond the mundane every day drab existence. In essence, filling the void is best done when one develops perspective, the ability to view things from different angles, and understand why those different angles can be seen to make sense. We also shouldn’t be afraid of accepting that there may be a spiritual side to our existence, even if our world seems wholly defined by the material.

Of course, many people already have a spiritual core, and thus seem to be able to take life and all its stresses without losing their sense of joy. They may find their religious faith sufficient, their sense of family and nature could be strong, or they are naturally introspective and creative. Perhaps it’s upbringing, something genetic, or maybe the experience of many lives.

The challenge of modern life is find a way to fill ones’ own void, to find ones’ own spiritual core in a world where religion is mistrusted, families are scattered, and nature is seen as something to be controlled. In a world where materialism is king, spiritualism is distrusted, and creativity embraced primarily if it sells, our entire culture seems to work to keep our core unfilled. The void and its distractions are good for business. Somehow we have the courage to look inside and really know ourselves, take responsibility for our own lives, treat each day as something precious to create in the way we want to, and live a creative and expressive life, connecting with nature and others in a manner that fosters joy. Only if we can do that can we really enjoy the material delights of the modern era, and truly understand and empathize with those on the planet who suffer from war, famine, slavery and other problems. The problems of this world cannot be solved by people suffering “the void.” Such people are so self-absorbed, they don’t see the world clearly, or understand their place in it. And, lest I sound too preachy, I see in myself the constant challenge to nurture the spiritual core and fight against the power of a culture based very much on greed and materialism.

August 5 - The Race Card?

Back in early June I pointed out how Obama would have to deal with racism in this campaign. The goal of the GOP, I noted, would be to try to make Obama seem risky and “strange.” As I put it then: “One will simply be to try to paint Obama as somehow strange. Strange name. Look at his former church. Weird background. Lived awhile in Indonesia…subtext: is he really one of us?”

It’s clear that the biggest impediment to Obama beating John McCain is the possibility that Americans will think this rather inexperienced strange black candidate is just too risky. After all, being President is a huge responsibility, if doubts can be cast on whether or not Obama is really qualified, or if people can start to question just what kind of person he is, swing voters might put McCain over the top.

Obama can’t beat around the bush here, he has to tackle this head on, saying “I know they’ll try to make you think I’m strange, risky, etc.,” and then make a convincing case as to why he is not. That case ultimately will have to include his Vice Presidential choice (I still think Wesley Clark would be a good pick) and the people around him. But already he is stating this clearly, and confronting this weakness of his candidacy. The response of the McCain campaign: to accuse Obama of playing the race card.

Huh?

Now, I can see why the McCain campaign would rather Obama not confront this issue effectively. But to accuse him of “playing the race card” by just mentioning that he’s black, well, that’s a bit over the top. The McCain campaign has also very quickly gone negative, focusing on calling Obama a glitzy star like Paris Hilton or Brittney Spears (note the choice of people not held in high esteem by most of the public, especially not swing voters) who lacks substance. Obama meanwhile goes on a world tour and generates considerable media coverage, while McCain seems so outside the loop that Jon Stewart’s theme song for McCain is “All By Myself,” in a series called McCain’s “quest for attention.” Obama speaks in Berlin, McCain answers outside the “Haus of Fudge” in Wisconsin. It almost seems surreal. What’s going on? Is the race card being played? Is the media being unfair? Does Obama have substance?

At this point Obama’s team — the people organizing his campaign — are waging a much more effective battle than McCain’s. Yet, as the polls show, McCain is very resilient despite Obama’s efforts. All of this points to a really intriguing election ahead.

Obama does lack experience, he is relatively unknown, he does have a funny name, and a lot of people like him, but aren’t sure if they really want to vote for him. McCain is old, has a reputation for a nasty temper, and has been prone to gaffes. Yet he is respected, liked, and seems Presidential. Obama’s trip to Europe and the Mideast is meant to try to erase that sense that Obama is inexperienced and lacks substance. He’s being accused of acting like he already is President because he wants to appear Presidential — he is addressing his weakness.

McCain recognizes that given the basics of the campaign, the election is all about Obama. Here’s why: Political science may be an inexact science, but it’s been well known for a long time that external factors rather than the candidates often determine an election’s outcome. If the economy is down, if the public is in a sour mood, and people want a change, then they will vote for the candidate from the outside, whether he’s Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. In all three of those cases there were real questions as to whether the former actor or peanut farmer, or promiscuous small state Governor was up to running the country. But the mood was one of change, and people welcomed an outsider. Once the public decided they could trust the outsider, it was all over — Carter beat Ford narrowly, but Reagan and Clinton had surprisingly comfortable margins of victory.

This year, on paper Obama is easily set to beat McCain, especially given McCain’s age and lack of resources (Obama may outspend him two or three to one). Even the close polls are misleading. Carter led or was very close to Reagan up until the end; structural factors were behind the late break to Reagan. The same can be expected for Obama this year. Yet unlike Reagan, Carter or Clinton, Obama is truly different. He is black. His middle name is Hussein and his last name sounds almost like Osama. His old church had a radical pastor. He has lived abroad. In fact, these negatives are so powerful that in any other year he probably would not have been the nominee; if this was like 1972 his prospects would be akin to those of George McGovern.

Hence the fascination at this election: from one angle, Obama looks like a shoe in. From another angle, he looks risky and destined to lose to someone as well liked and respected as John McCain. Either angle could become reality in November. For once, the campaigns really matter.

For McCain the strategy is simple: if the election is about the qualifications and character of your opponent, go negative. Be vicious. Yet even that is problematic, since McCain has run as a “different” kind of candidate, someone appalled by the tactics of Karl Rove, which destroyed his 2000 bid against George W. Bush. Yet it’s a price worth paying; going negative usually works, even if the public says they don’t like it.

For Obama the strategy is also simple: stay positive, be Presidential, and respond to the negatives as they come, letting surrogates attack McCain. Yet while this sounds simple, it’s much harder to pull off than going negative. I’m sure Michael Dukakis’ staff thought that riding in a tank looked Presidential, when actually it turned into a caricature. So far, Obama’s campaign has been run in a very impressive manner. They have made few errors, and seem to be executing a well designed strategy, with a very disciplined candidate. At this level it’s more marketing than politics, and Obama’s people understand that.

McCain’s campaign has been sluggish, but going negative doesn’t require the finesse that trying to stay positive while fighting off negative attacks does. And that brings us to the race card. It’s clear the McCain camp knows that the most effective counter to the effort to “make Obama appear strange” is for Obama to address it head on. They have decided to respond in a way designed to make it appear Obama is “playing the race card” if he even acknowledges race as part of what causes some people to be uncomfortable with him. In that sense, it’s really the McCain camp who played the race card, but I think they overplayed it. Negative campaigning works, but doesn’t guarantee victory. After all, it’s usually the underdog who has to go negative.  Obama’s team is running a more effective campaign so far. Unless McCain’s campaign improves, Obama still could prove to be the Democratic Reagan.

August 4 - The Iraq Syndrome

The debate about the use of military force in American foreign policy is over, and my side has won. The Iraq war assures that future Presidents will be unwilling to use military power to achieve foreign policy objectives unless it is so risk-free (e.g., Ronald Reagan’s attack on Grenada kind of risk) that it cannot go wrong. They will look at how the entire Bush Presidency, the “opportunity society” and the Republican domestic agenda was sacrificed at the alter of this war. This war cost so much, destroyed the popularity of a well liked President, and took a party that was thinking in terms of a ‘permanent majority’ to looking like it will be on the ropes for some time.

To listen to John McCain or others talk, the apparent success of the ‘surge’ is meant to undo all that went wrong. Now we can leave Iraq stable, they hope, and finally say ‘mission accomplished.’ Yet few really try to make the argument that this was all worthwhile, and instead focus on simply avoiding an embarrassing defeat.

Beyond the obvious political costs of the war, the US military has been severely overstretched and the economy is in a very difficult position. With the war so unpopular, the idea that there could be a massive increase in the size of the military without a major increase in cost is infeasible. Yet the public is likely in no mood to see their programs cut in order for the military to grow, and with the economy heading south, there isn’t any excess money around to fund a military increase. In fact, in this war the use of the National Guard for so many tours of duty will probably mean that national guard service will become less popular, putting a strain on states as well.

Early in the war it was seen as remarkable that so many former Generals were criticizing the administration and the Iraq war. The number who spoke out suggests that within the Pentagon there was real antipathy to the way the military was being used. The Generals coming out of this war will on doubt be adverse to using the military as a way to try to socially engineer foreign countries, and want to focus again on defense and security – the traditional role of the military. Even among Republicans there is a sense that while they don’t want to lose Iraq, and believe that the US has its reputation on the line, the Bush administration was reckless in getting us to this situation. It’s unlikely either party will be especially hawkish moving forward.

Still, while those of us opposed to military adventurism may have “won” this debate, the “won” goes in quotes because we really didn’t prevail in convincing people we were right; rather, events went in a way that persuaded most in the country that the hawks were wrong. The same thing happened in 1973 after the Vietnam war. The anti-war side won that time as well, but only because Vietnam was a disaster. Not being able to put forth a coherent alternative, the victory for anti-militarism was short lived, being slowly nibbled at in the 80s before the end of the Cold War and Desert Storm renewed America’s belief in the use of military power. To make this more than just an “Iraq syndrome” that will last a decade or two, those of us opposed to militarism need to make a coherent argument for an alternative approach to foreign policy, one that captures the ideals of most Americans. Those ideals contain a mix of idealism, realism, and nationalism.

It’s not enough to simply posit multilateralism. NATO isn’t effective as a true international body, the UN is full of problems and difficulties, and even the EU is finding foreign policy cooperation the most difficult aspect of its attempt to integrate the European states. Of course multilateralism is necessary, but it is not in and of itself an alternative. Americans are especially prone to fear giving up sovereignty, even if it seems increasingly obvious that globalization is eroding sovereignty at every turn.

Yet globalization is eroding sovereignty precisely because it is in the interest of states to allow it to be eroded. Therefore, rather than focusing on the negative, perhaps an alternative would be something along the lines of the US as exercising “sovereign national interest and global responsibility.”

The argument would be that without real burden sharing in terms of military activities, the US cannot afford and is in fact hurt by trying to be a ‘world cop.’ Therefore, we will only intervene if we need to for direct and explicit national security concerns, or as part of a true multinational force, sharing the burden with a general consensus that military action is necessary.

Second, we will embrace diplomacy as a true way to express sovereign national interest. The idea that diplomacy is for weaklings and cowards, something real statesmen never think, but a lot of arm chair generals believe, needs to be dispensed for good. Diplomacy is about using leverage to help achieve what’s in the national interest, including efforts to promote democracy and work against corruption.

Third, we need to stress ideals in our means of foreign policy, not just our goals. When we allow corruption to grow in Iraq, or kill civilians in order to protect soldiers, or rationalize efforts to try to control another country’s politics in order to pursue ‘larger’ goals, we are sacrificing our ideals. I don’t believe that the ends justify the means, since the means end up reflecting who we are to those who witness them – and in a modern connected world, that’s the whole planet!

Finally, global responsibility means that we understand that in this interdependent world we are connected, what affects us affects others, and we can’t see states as billiard balls bouncing off each other. This means we have to work towards international law, deal with environmental problems, take human rights seriously, and recognize that we need trade. We need to see sex slavery, mass famine, and child soldiers are problems for us, even if they exist far away.

In short, we can have a foreign policy that is not militarist or interventionist, but focused on mixing a protection of our national security with a cooperative approach to working with other countries to deal with global issues. If we can build a coherent argument defending and explaining this, and limiting how and when we consider military engagement legitimate, then perhaps this time we won’t need another syndrome twenty or thirty years from now to relearn the lesson.

August 1 - Consumer Cathedral

The vacation is almost over, but today we had a chance to visit the cathedral to consumerism, the modern capitalist equivalent of St. Peter’s — The Mall of America, in Bloomington, Minnesota. Given all of my tirades on consumerism lately, one might think I’d look with disdain at this glitzy consumer Mecca sitting right where the old Metropolitan Stadium (home of the Twins and Vikings for 20 years until 1981) stood, but the visit was fun, and seen in context, the Mall of America is a fascinating microcosm of American consumerism.

First, it’s fun. When the mall first opened it boosted “Camp Snoopy,” an indoor amusement park with rides based on the theme of Charles Shultz’s Peanuts comic strip. Recently, however, that changed to “Nickelodeon TV,” with the more marketable faces of Dora the Explorer and Spongebob Squarepants, with rides more expensive and a bit more adventurous than before. It is loads of fun, and we spent far more time there than actually in the mall (and spent money only there and at the food court). My two year old spent 45 minutes building things at the Lego land display, free of charge.

Second, the food’s great. While the food court has the usual Panda express and the like, there are delicious gyros, experimental ‘fast food,’ and a wide range of restaurants from the unique to the down home. Whatever your taste, you can find it at the Mall of America - with good quality too. Where else can I get a quick, cheap, yet high quality gyro (with the right sauce and meats), plus a delicious side of spanikopita?

Finally, you can find whatever you want. When I lived in Minneapolis, the MOA was my shopping mall. I went there to buy the things I needed, as it was closer than other malls, and I knew I could find what I wanted. It has virtually everything, and many stores are intriguing on their own right. Granted, we didn’t experience that so much this time because of the focus on the amusement park, but there are good deals, and a variety of offerings you can’t find in most places. It is a mix of the pragmatic and the sensational.

And I mean sensational — it overloads the senses. Much like the old European Cathedrals of the dark ages, the Mall of America is spectacular. From the moment you enter sounds, images, and an open expanse create a sense of wonder. For the average rural Minnesotan, used to flat plans and small towns, this is an eye opener. There’s an energy and a vibrance to the Mall of America that is compelling. I used to come here and people watch when I was bored, often buying nothing but some oatmeal butterscotch cookies and just walking around, observing. I recall when I came to Farmington for my job interview, I knew I was going to be in for culture shock when I asked the student giving me a tour of the campus what Farmington was like. She got a big smile and said with excitement, “we just got a Walmart!” Yikes.

Tomorrow before our flight we’re heading to downtown Minneapolis so the boys can see real skyscrapers and what a city is like. In Farmington Maine we’re rather secluded. When I first moved to Maine, I missed the Twins Cities, where I’d lived for ten years. Minneapolis is known for its music scene, awesome theater, and arts. And while it is a real city with traffic jams and crime, it also has numerous lakes within its city limits (I think 11), and in the suburbs even more. One can get on a bike path and go from park to park around the city and along the Mississippi without feeling like one is in an urban center. Farmington is small, the nearest ‘good shopping’ is 45 minutes away, and while being a university town it does put on some good plays and concerts, well, rural Maine stands no chance against Minneapolis-St. Paul!

Tonight, though, I felt glad that this is a place we’ll go simply as tourists, not as a normal weekly or even monthly event. Just like the Cathedrals of old used incense, colors, and stained glass to create an other-wordly impression, as if the horrors of daily medieval life didn’t exist, the sanitary ‘catering to every whim’ atmosphere at the Mall of America creates an impression of the individual consumer as King. I am here, my wants are primary, others are here to serve. I have to give money, to be sure, but in exchange I am pampered and complimented — all in a fun, exciting environment. The message is clear — you deserve to treat yourself to something special, even if you have to borrow to do it. Everyone else is, why be left behind?

Thus this new religion turns traditional faith on its head. Rather than a sense of something higher, with community paramount, material wants are privileged, with individual satisfaction the highest value. While most religions try to produce some sort of introspection on life, it’s meaning, and our place in the world, consumerism’s message “don’t worry about that heavy stuff, buy something and enjoy yourself.” Most traditional religions demand adherence to one story, myth or creed. Consumerism can coopt virtually any religion, “sure, shop around for your church or faith, believe that…but that doesn’t mean you can’t be a good consumer too!”

I noted awhile back that most religions no longer are viable, given changes in science and human knowledge attained over the past few centuries. Visiting this consumer cathedral, it reinforced my sense that we’ve let our cynicism about faith lead to an embrace of pure materialism that is at its core empty; short term efforts to fill a void that requires something deeper and emotionally satisfying. In an earlier blog I called this ’spiritual dehydration,’ a sense our material fetishes cause us to miss something about the creative or ’spiritual’ side of life. At the Mall of America, one sees consumerism in all its material glory, using fun, food, spectacle and excitement to make consumerism seem fulfilling as well. I suspect most people still can find a happy medium, and don’t get sucked in completely. But it is an amazing place — a true cathedral to consumerism. I recall last February’s visit to St. Peter’s in Rome on the Italy trip, an extravagant spectacle that was so expensive it helped push the Germans towards revolt and the reformation.

Then it hit me. For all of the spiritual and ethical intent of Christian teachings, the result of Christianity as practiced was often to simply keep the powerful wealthy and the powerless in servitude. Corrupted Popes or modern day corrupted televangelists, all using emotion to line their pockets and fleece the masses. Perhaps the two cathedrals don’t represent things so different after all; this current cage is simply a gilded one.

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